the day they can't sell their oil, is the day they will try to ensure nobody else can theirs either the day they can't sell their oil, is the day they will try to ensure nobody else can theirs either“the day they can’t sell their oil, is the day they will try to ensure nobody else can theirs either”
The corollary to your axiom is:
The day Iran tries to block the Strait of Hormuz, is the day they lose their Navy.
Persians invented chess. They can look two moves ahead.