Posted on 08/08/2018 7:57:28 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Confident talk in Washington that swaggering Republicans will fatten their majority in the Senate to a filibuster-proof 60 seats in the fall elections is shifting to nail-biting whispers the Democrats could take charge and install Sen. Chuck Schumer as leader.
Already fretting odds that the House will turn Democratic and that potential Speaker Nancy Pelosi will open impeachment proceedings against President Trump, a path to a Democratic Senate is beginning to emerge based on historical statistics and the anti-Trump sentiment in some areas of the country.
Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ Larry Sabato Crystal Ball, outlined the long-shot route Thursday and said that while GOP control remains the likely outcome, it is not a lock.
“While Republicans are favored to retain control of the chamber, and possibly gain seats in the process, Democrats do have a chance of winning a slim majority this November,” he wrote in a detailed historical analysis.
“To win 51 or 52 seats, Democrats would have to hold most or all of those 10 seats in Trump-won states while also adding one or two other seats in states the president carried — Arizona and Tennessee — while also winning the lone Clinton-won state the GOP is defending this cycle — Nevada. Although this is not a likely outcome, the fact we can credibly discuss it as a possible result is evidence that the historical trend of non-presidential party incumbents winning most midterm races may prove to be the stronger force once again in 2018,” he added.
He noted that ticket-splitting is likely to make a comeback in the elections.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
Using the word “could” = NO
and impeaching someone for nothing can also happen to a Democrat
Pure fantasy from the people that said Hillary was a lock.
By the time Trump leaves office after his second term - the House, the Senate, and the SC will not only be ‘republican’, it will be conservative.
The crazy left is about to get handed its teeth - world wide.
Larry Sabato, the Al Capone’s Vault of political polling.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has been cracked for a very long time.
Speculative click-bait article. Like so much of today’s “news”.
I remember watching that!
nuff said
No doubt this Bedard fella is on the payroll of the RNC.
Spinning fear out of pure bullsh!t to get people to cough up money.
It’s almost impossible for the Republicans to lose the Senate this year.
It’s not mathematically impossible for the NY Mets to win the World Series this year.
I could win the Champions Tour Open this year.
Bedard should go to ESPN, where his manufacturing of fake drama would blend right in.
Although this is not a likely outcome, the fact we can credibly discuss it as a possible result is evidence that the historical trend of non-presidential party incumbents winning most midterm races may prove to be the stronger force once again in 2018,” he added. “Or, it may mean absolutely nothing.”
Don’t be too sure. When they analyzed the state primary races yesterday, the GOP turnout was miserable. But Dems turned out in droves to select their candidate. It’s all about who shows up and vote, and we don’t have a very good record of that. We need to make more of an effort to get out the vote.
If conservatives stay home in Texas and Utah, and perhaps Arizona if McSally wins the primary, those Senate seats could go blue.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha oh stop you’re killing me! Democrats will lose 11 seats take it to the bank.
Same source said Hillary would win with 322 electoral votes.
They talking out their ass to get Media attention.
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