Posted on 08/13/2018 10:16:58 PM PDT by Kaslin
Last week, Republican Troy Balderson struggled to beat Democrat Danny O'Connor in a House special election in suburban Columbus -- an Ohio district the GOP has held for decades and President Trump won by 11 percentage points two years ago. (The race -- still too close to call with a margin of 1,564 votes -- won't be declared until Aug. 24, when all the absentee ballots have been counted.)
In March, Republican Rick Saccone lost a special election to Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania, another district that voted solidly for Trump.
Both Ohio and Pennsylvania represent the new coalition of Trump voters: Rust Belt states that were expected to swing blue in 2016 but in fact went for the unorthodox billionaire who promised to "Make America Great Again."
So why, two years later, is the GOP having so much trouble connecting with these people? Is it Trump? The party establishment?
Ohio Gov. John Kasich said Balderson's weak showing was a referendum on the president. "(V)oters here sent a message to the Republicans to knock it off," Kasich told CBS News last week. "Stop the chaos, the division, no more of this family separation that we see at the border or taking people's health care away. I think that have -- basically have had enough and they're sending a message to the Republicans, including the Republican in the White House. ... This district is so Republican, there should never even have been an election here. And it was so close and -- in one of the counties that's so solidly Republican -- where a Republican would normally win by 70 percent, it broke basically 50-50."
But Kasich, who hasn't yet ruled out a run for president in 2020, has got the wrong end of the stick. The GOP's problem isn't its president. The problem is its message.
Trump is the sun around which the solar system of American politics operates. You can't outshine him.
And his base is solid. An August survey of validated Trump voters conducted by the Pew American Trends Panel showed that a vast majority of those who supported him in 2016 still hold fond feelings for him and his presidency.
The survey said that 82 percent of those who voted for Trump said they still felt "warmly" toward him as of March, with 62 percent saying they had "very warm" feelings toward him.
Democratic candidates arguably have an easier sell in that they can freely oppose Trump to rally their base.
Republicans, meanwhile, can't just be pro-Trump. They need to thread the needle, reach out to people from educated and upscale suburbs who are possibly put off by the president's rhetoric while continuing to embrace his new populist coalition of blue-collar and non-regular GOP voters. But Dave Myhal, an Ohio-based Republican strategist who lives in Columbus, says bringing together regular Republicans and the irregular populist voter shouldn't be that complicated.
The key isn't national issues. It's local ones.
Infrastructure projects, like bridges and roads and sewer systems, are important to everyone. Addressing how to keep young people in the area appeals to both suburban and rural parents. So does the issue of creating jobs or expanding broadband for rural kids who want to work in farming or manufacturing or small businesses.
"That my party didn't learn how to reach their voters from the Conor Lamb defeat and continued the same practices kind of proves they still don't get it," said Myhal. He says both Saccone and Balderson should have stolen "a page out of Danny O'Connor and Conor Lamb's playbook and run on local issues -- both men did a really good job of doing that."
John Lapp, a Washington-based Democratic strategist, agrees. "For Republicans to have to spend over $4 million to hold a ruby-red House district certainly is a harbinger for their challenge to appeal to voters this fall," he said.
House special elections don't usually predict a party's fate in the midterms. The Democrats lost all their special elections leading up to the 2006 midterms only to flip the House by 30 seats; four years later, the Republicans lost all their special elections going into the 2010 midterms and went on to trounce the Democrats by winning back 63 seats.
"People make way too much out of special elections. It's kind of like preseason football -- it's a good way to work out the kinks of an organization -- but has nothing to do with the regular season," said Lapp. But it's a crucial time to start learning some very important lessons before the 2018 midterms.
Keeping it local is the way you bring the regular Republican suburban voter and the new Trump voter together. It keeps the electorate on the same page and the candidates' message laser-focused, said Myhal.
"It is their common denominator," he said.
To identify with your voters is to be present with your voters. Every Republican House candidate running should be on the ground in their district, discussing local issues and refusing national cookie-cutter ads made by people who have never set foot on their Main Street.
Whether it's the suburban mom or the blue-collar worker, voters will be willing to listen and connect with a candidate who makes them feel part of their community -- and part of something bigger than themselves.
That's why Trump won in 2016 and forged his coalition in the first place.
Sputtered to victory.
1)Balderson is from the sticks and was unknown in Delaware county.
2)Kasich tried to sabotage him so he could blame Trump.
At the risk of slings and arrows and in spite of my early and ongoing support of Trump, I think I know why he is losing support.
It is because of his off the cuff style of tweeting and talking. It is beginning to wear thin.
He needs to out people. He needs to tell the American people the truth. He needs to continue to note how the press is fake.
But he needs to do so in a more adult and formal manner. If he grates, many people just can’t get beyond it.
Somebody please help him. Style matters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JF049T2OkFo
h/t Rush Limbaugh
It's clear Kasich at least went through the motions of supporting Balderson.
What evidence can you present in support of your thesis?
The old man looks tired in that photo. If I could give him my strength I surely would. Kasich, that POS couldn’t be elected dog catcher in my state, hated equally by republicans and democrats. As a freeper said, his current goal is to be a talking head for some lib “news” channel. Even the f’ing Chinese know what he is about. He was talking major gun control last week, what an utter moron.
Trump’s not the reason the GOP sputtered in Ohio
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/3678596/posts
This is the biggest thing I can think of.
Kasich: Ohio candidate didn’t invite Trump to rally
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/400451-kasich-ohio-candidate-didnt-invite-trump-to-rally
As Trump supporter, to hear a candidate might be trying to distance himself from Trump would be a bit upsetting.
As *a* Trump supporter. Sigh... up with chigger bites at three thirty in the morning. Fun times.
Ultimately, what matters is the size of the 2019 House Republican caucus vs that of the Democrat caucus. The quality of the members is of secondary concern.
Democrat magic “found ballots”.
Any “found ballots” should automatically be suspect, and the people pushing them charged with treason and executed.
Honestly, if an honest chain of custody was maintained there would be no magically found ballots.
Therefore, shenanigans are happening and will continue to do so until someone gets the harshest punishment possible.
And tampering with the voting is honestly treason and should be defined as such.
It is because of his off the cuff style of tweeting and talking. It is beginning to wear thin.
He needs to out people. He needs to tell the American people the truth. He needs to continue to note how the press is fake.
But he needs to do so in a more adult and formal manner. If he grates, many people just can’t get beyond it.
Somebody please help him. Style matters.
________________
You're very correct.
IF DJT has it in him (and I've begun to believe that he does not) ..... he has to become a great deal more adult in his reactions to people and circumstances. If not his "magic" may disappear quickly and in an ugly fashion for the country.
(jmo)
“Ultimately, what matters is the size of the 2019 House Republican caucus vs that of the Democrat caucus. The quality of the members is of secondary concern.”
I don’t know. I’m pretty sure there were places that undercut Trump in 2016. People voted republican but didn’t vote for him for president.
-Anyway November should give us a more accurate reading of what’s going on.
Surprisingly, some voters think principle matters in the voting booth. So, for instance, they vote for the D (or the L) because he or she is the better "qualified", whatever that means. But what they don't understand is how law gets made. It comes down to majority rule, so you need more R's than D's, principles be damned!
Who is the democrat who found these votes?
The term we seem to be looking for is RINO!
It is hard (and gonna be HARDER) to get Republicans to vote for RINOs anymore.
This is a prime example of the problem.
DO NOT give us more RINO candidates and the problem goes away.
The pubbie Congress doesn’t do what they promise the voters they will do. That is the problem.
Trump division? Has this idiot not been following the corruption in the entire Government of Obama,justice,IRS,FBI,CIA! This is pathetic
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