Posted on 08/16/2018 3:34:12 PM PDT by tcrlaf
About 15% less chance than Hillary had?
Chance Democrats get to 205... 210....215?
I just want to know what President Hillary says about this.
If people fall for that, they get what they deserve.
So many are always ready to rely on somebody else, or BLAME someone else for their personal failure to follow their own good sense and intuition.
It’s been a long time since I believed anything that pollsters, statisticians, and most of the media have to say. I believe what I see and hear on the street and what my good sense and my heart tell me about the men and women who are running for office and claim to want to work for me.
Trust Yourself! And VOTE!
Trump will have to carry the GOP to victory despite themselves.
I’m going to make a mid-term election prediction using the same methodology as 538dotcom. Hmmmmmm, Hmmmmmmm, ok I’m thinking about it. Aha, I’ve got it; There is a 100% chance that the R’s pick up 10 to 15 House seats and they also pick up 6 to 12 Senate seats. See how easy that was. I’ll also predict that there is a 110% chance that my prediction is more accurate than their’s.
What certainty do we have GOP will win most of these 25?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/25-districts-that-could-decide-the-house-in-2018/
Nate got it right in 2012 because the polls were telling him what he wanted to hear. In 2016 the poll he claimed was the most accurate poll in 2012 was saying Trump would win but Nate found reasons to find fault with it's 2016 results.
It was more important for Nate to be happy and wrong than be right by acknowledging the bad news he didn't want to hear.
Many of the people who elected Trump hate Republicans and the Party with a passion.
Here’s something to think about, if you keep track of the internals of these polls that keep showing the Dems with a large generic ballot lead for the House. Start taking notice of the size of the D sample, they have to keep adding dems to the sample in order to keep that lead. Also the fact that Trump is now favored by 39% of black people. If the R’s ever get just 20% of the black vote the Dems cannot win, in fact they would get swamped in any election, Presidential or mid-term or off year or special elections. At that point it would be over for the Dems.
538:
96% chance that ILLary gets 375 Electoral Votes
The Gaslight cometh.
Ha ha ha ha ha what is there edge the collapse of their generic lead, 4
1 GDP, the Cortez factor or the 27 state 500 pergessiomals with 15k volunteers the Rnc has set up
Im so confused
The Republicans will hold the Senate and probably pick up a couple of extra seats, simply because of the number of democrat held Senate seats that are up for election this year. The House does worry me though.
The fact that President Trump is now polling higher than Obama did at this point in Obama’s first term is not that comforting, considering what happened to the democrats in the 2010 election. President Trump needs to poll a hellofalot higher than Obama did to prevent the Republicans from losing seats in November.
Be afraid. Be very afraid. And then go out and vote and get all of your friends and family to vote.
Almost forgot the death blow 36% Black approval of Trump.
That is Nate Silver’s group. The boy wonder only got one election right and was Obama in 2008 and a Blind Man could have guessed that one right.
Silver has not had much going for him for awhile and he was so off in 2016 also. No credibility and no track record at all.
Maybe so but they’ll come out and vote for Trump backed candidates. They know if the dems win the house, then having Trump as President is essentially meaningless because nothing, and I mean nothing will get done legislatively except impeachment hearings, and the MAGA agenda will be dead. That is a real motivator for those Trumpsters, like myself who hate the R party and a lot of its swampy denizens, but that’s not going to stop me from voting a straight R ticket this year. There is absolutely no reason to for any dem candidate for any of the Deplorables. We all know that a vote against the R’s is a vote against President Trump, so the Deplorables will deliver a huge win this November for our President.
The ‘Rats will lose bigly.... Ocasio-Tampax can’t save ‘em
We conservatives need to get fired up. The democrats are registering people left and right.
What election was Silver lucky about in 2012?
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