Posted on 08/18/2018 6:20:39 PM PDT by 11th_VA
... “In 2016, a lot of us assumed we knew what would happen in Michigan and Wisconsin,” Salvanto told The Post. “It was a great lesson for us pollsters: Even if you think you know what will happen, poll it if you can.”
Blame it on the Blue Wall. Since 1992, in six consecutive presidential elections, a solid block of 18 states had voted for the Democrat every single time. They would have given Clinton 239 electoral votes — 89 percent of the way to victory — if she had held on to them all.
Few bothered to ask those states’ voters what they thought, though. “Pre-election polling in the Midwest . . . just wasn’t there,” Salvanto said. When Trump knocked out Michigan and Wisconsin, two of Clinton’s critical Rust Belt supports, her Blue Wall crumbled...
For 2018, the CBS News Battleground Tracker has gathered a panel of nearly 5,700 registered voters. Almost all of them live in the 50 to 60 districts that might switch from Republican to Democrat, or vice versa, in November — the only races that matter, when it comes to control of Congress.
Salvanto’s polling currently indicates that few House seats will change hands in November — and that the GOP could very well hold its majority in the House. “In this era, a district’s voting patterns from the past tend to stay that way,” Salvanto said. “Not as many partisans today are willing to cross party lines.” Of the nation’s 435 House districts, fully 85 percent will almost certainly stick with its current party affiliation come November, Salvanto projects.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
What does it mean when the name is in bold?
What do you know. A pollster who actually tells the truth!!
What do you know. A pollster who actually tells the truth!!
Bold - Start of a Column, R1, R2, R3, etc
No that’s not right - not sure what bold is
The GOP will probably hold the House, and will gain seats in the Senate.
Let me be clear and say that again. THE GOP WILL GAIN SEATS IN THE SENATE.
The only blue wave they are going to see is in the toilet bowl as their election fantasies disintegrate and go down the commode.
I thought Mr. Salvanto was very professional election night, better than most.
Marginally. The truth is that a red wave is predictable. Trump has barely begun campaigning. People are FED UP with leftists.
Ping - and thanks for that info on other thread earlier.
And 36% of Black voters on board with Trump.
Redistricting has more to do with house races...
Forget the propaganda! VOTE in November. :-D
Good news! But let’s not count our chickens yet!
Whether or not the GOP holds on to the House depends on what they do regarding the federal Budget cuts next month. If they and Trump cave like they did on the Omnibus then the voter base will be demoralized this Election.
Yea sure, it was the late deciders that screwed up your polling! LOL
Looks like the ones highlighted in yellow are tossups, the others favor Repubs
[Forget the propaganda! VOTE in November. :-D]
Agreed but I’d go with:
Forget the propaganda! VOTE in November. :-R
;)
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