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The Myth of Erdoganís Power (Turkey)
Foreign Policy ^ | August 29, 2018, 5:42 PM | Halil Karaveli

Posted on 08/31/2018 9:36:24 AM PDT by Texas Fossil

This month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intimated that his country might consider leaving NATO. Meanwhile, on a visit to Moscow last week, Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu referred to Russia as a “strategic partner”—a first. This talk is empty. Erdogan may well be angry at Washington, but ultimately, Ankara is going to have to do whatever it takes to restore its ties with the West. Doing so might not be enough to pull the country out of its economic crisis, but Erdogan has few other options if he wants to avoid a potentially worse political meltdown: He depends too deeply on forces in the Turkish state that will have difficulty stomaching a permanent shift away from the U.S. and toward Russia.

In mid-August, President Trump said that Turkey has been a “problem for a long time.” True. But, at least in part, that’s because the U.S. has also been a problem for Turkey. Washington’s current list of grievances against Ankara include its detention of the American pastor Andrew Brunson, its opposition to U.S. attempts to empower the Kurds in Syria, and its deepening relationship with Russia, from which Turkey has agreed to purchase four batteries of S-400 air defense missiles by 2019.

Consider Brunson, who was arrested in December 2016 after an attempted coup against Erdogan. Brunson was accused of having ties to the religious/political movement led by the U.S.-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, thought to have been behind the coup. He’s also been linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Whatever the validity of those charges, Brunson is a valuable political bargaining chip; Ankara hopes to exchange him for Mehmet Hakan Atilla, a former deputy general manager of the Turkish state-owned Halkbank who has been sentenced to prison in the U.S. for violating sanctions on Iran.

(Excerpt) Read more at foreignpolicy.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Egypt; Foreign Affairs; Germany; Israel; News/Current Events; Russia; Syria; United Kingdom; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: andrewbrunson; angelamerkel; armenia; brexit; bulgaria; cyprus; deathtoassad; djibouti; egypt; emmanuelmacron; erdogan; eritrea; europeanunion; fethullahgulen; france; gaza; germany; greece; hamas; hassannasrallah; hezbollah; iran; isis; israel; jerusalem; jordan; kurdistan; lebanon; letshavejerusalem; macron; myth; nato; power; receptayyiperdogan; romania; russia; sinai; sudan; syria; theresamay; turkey; unitedkingdom; waronterror; yemen
Interesting discussion. I'm not really a fan of Foreign Policy. But they do have some excellent writers.

Some time ago another member on Free Republic informed me that the CHP (Kemalists) were leftist, like in the EU. At the time I was not aware of that. They are also anti-Islamist and nationalists.

There is another party in Turkey that sides with Erdogan's AKP party. It is the MHP, hard nationalist and according to FP they are right wing.

The Turks vs Rojava (Syria, Kurds)?

Washington may conclude that the alliance with Turkey is not worth saving. But that would amount to saying that it does not matter for the United States if Turkey, a NATO ally, remains friendly toward Russia or collapses all together. Ultimately, the United States is going to have to make a choice: between Rojava and Turkey, between a socialist-radical experiment and a right-wing authoritarian state.

1 posted on 08/31/2018 9:36:24 AM PDT by Texas Fossil
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To: Texas Fossil

I always treat the yahoos that write this with a grain of salt, because almost (but not quite) always as they lay out their little theories you see important factors that they leave entirely out of their considerations.


2 posted on 08/31/2018 9:42:46 AM PDT by MrEdd (Caveat Emptor)
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To: MrEdd

Yes. The problem is, no matter how technically smart they are, the real world eludes them.

Many things just don’t fit in tight little packages. Human nature takes care of that.

President Trump is not like the financial techs. He is the high level generalist who has years of business experience. His speech is not always polished like our elite POLs, but he grasps the real world better than they do.

It shows dramatically in his foreign policy success compared to defaulting to the gnomes in the State Department. He should listen to their advice, and then continue to chart his own coarse.


3 posted on 08/31/2018 9:51:07 AM PDT by Texas Fossil ((Texas is not where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind & Attitude!))
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To: Texas Fossil

I don’t see where Putin has any real interest in Erdogan or Turkey. Turkey isn’t a valued trade partner,and it’s practically broke.

If anything, on the myth suggestion of power, Erdogan is on a short schedule to resolve the banking crisis and the Lira problem. He needs some massive loan (probably over 200 billion Euro worth), and I doubt seriously that they can repay the loan, unless Europe gives them some hope for the future.

So the only ‘saviors’ left are Saudi Arabia, Russia (doubtful), Dubai, and China.


4 posted on 08/31/2018 9:58:41 AM PDT by pepsionice
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To: Texas Fossil

ping


5 posted on 08/31/2018 10:01:01 AM PDT by mbarker12474
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To: MrEdd

Me too. Where was Turkey in the first gulf war? How far backwards has Turkey gone since Attaturk? When Erdogan’s wife started wearing a headscarf it was a warning signal about which way the wind was blowing. Not good!


6 posted on 08/31/2018 10:02:46 AM PDT by Mollypitcher1 (I have not yet begun to fight....John Paul Jones)
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To: Mollypitcher1

“...Where was Turkey in the first gulf war?...?

Not on our side. IIRC the US wanted to invade Iraq from Turkey with the 3rd ID(?). Turkey said “No”.


7 posted on 08/31/2018 10:06:19 AM PDT by PeteB570 ( Islam is the sea in which the Terrorist Shark swims. The deeper the sea the larger the shark.)
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To: Mollypitcher1

Since coming to power - and over time - Erdogan has purged Turkey of any secular people in the military, law enforcement, judges, schools and many other places.


8 posted on 08/31/2018 10:08:48 AM PDT by PeteB570 ( Islam is the sea in which the Terrorist Shark swims. The deeper the sea the larger the shark.)
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To: PeteB570

Erdogan has purged Turkey of any secular people in the military, law enforcement, judges, schools and many other places.
.............................................
I am sure Attaturk is turning over in his grave. He brought Turkey out of the 7th century and Erdogan is returning there.


9 posted on 08/31/2018 10:22:36 AM PDT by Mollypitcher1 (I have not yet begun to fight....John Paul Jones)
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The Three Amigos

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani, Russia's Vladimir Putin and Turkey's Tayyip Erdogan meet in Sochi, Russia November 22, 2017. (photo credit: SPUTNIK/MIKHAIL METZEL/KREMLIN VIA REUTERS)

Column One: Portents of quagmires in Syria

10 posted on 08/31/2018 10:35:21 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (www.tapatalk.com/groups/godsgravesglyphs/, forum.darwincentral.org, www.gopbriefingroom.com)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...
Erdogan's running out of tightrope.

11 posted on 08/31/2018 10:36:36 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (www.tapatalk.com/groups/godsgravesglyphs/, forum.darwincentral.org, www.gopbriefingroom.com)
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To: pepsionice

It has been every Tsars dream since Peter the Great to control the Bosporus, the Dardanelles and Istanbul. Erdogan is playing with fire.


12 posted on 08/31/2018 11:15:06 AM PDT by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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