Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
From the NHC as part of the 11am advisory on Florence (’Key Messages’):
“There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a prolonged heavy rainfall even inland.”
>> My knee-jerk reaction: Think ‘Hugo’ or ‘Floyd’
I can't image what 3-4 feet of rain would do in the Carolina mountains.
I’m not sure why that doesn’t come up for me, but this one (without the semicolon), does:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane
That was a terrible storm!
Bump, he is prone to hyping a tad, but he is the go to guy for long range forecasts. If Joe is talking I am listening.
I’m a bit north of you. First time for me here. My motto. “Always an adventure!” Remember one while near Trenton, NJ but we were up on a hill. I am a mountain lover and am not used to being 5 feet above sea level. LOL
The rain a week or so ago accumulated a foot from my back door. Not a good sign. :)
I really think Florence is going to end up significantly north of current projections.
I went through every hurricane storm track back to the 1960s and could not find one that started as far north as this one which made it to landfall south of Canada.
Isabel was the closest comp and it was quite south of this one in its path.
So Joe Bastardi said 3 or 4 feet of rain? Holy cow.
“Hurricane Hazel”
You know what I love? How there’s two nuts named after people: Hazel and Filbert.
Well we never know, and things can change, but the models are all pretty consistent. The European model even agrees with the other models. Looks like Wilmington North Carolina is around the center of the ensemble models right now.
The models are often completely wrong. I remember the Irma models from last year, one of them got semi-close to the actual track, and the rest of them were completely off base.
I’m in the upstate of SC and the models from a couple of days ago showed Florence moving directly to this location. Today they show a trajectory a couple of hundred miles north. I predict we will see more revisions to the north, because this thing needs to be quite a bit further south to match any historical storm track that hits SC.
True, but other times the models are dead on. Sandy’s track was predicted by the European model to a few miles of actual landfall. We’ll just have to wait and see. The reason the models don’t see Florence tracking north is because of the very strong high pressure above it.
One of the things he was dealing with was the fact that his predecessor had been mired in scandal and he was playing it safe, tragically.
Aint Hazel just Filbert in a dress?
Spaghetti models are just that, all over the place.
Hurricane names suck.
Where is hurricane Graber? Cooter? Junior?
Meteorologists are racist!
I hope she has help near by!
One of the bright spots is you didn't know what was happening until you were in the middle of the 38 Hurricane.
Not like today when they have people getting anxious for days or a week waiting for the disaster. - Tom
I rode out Eva in a submarine. My oh my..
the Atlantic aint that active this year but has more to hit than the Pacific.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ud0IYMG1MCo
Is Bastardi saying Florence may be the worst natural disaster in recorded history?
Now that shakes me up because I have a lot of respect for Bastardi, I’ve never known him to be a drama queen.
She does, thanks. Her caregiver, who is wonderful, is right next door. Do you believe it...at 101 she still lives in her house, which is what she wants. Good friends (basically adopted family) live down the road. Two nieces live with 30 minutes. One of my brothers will be flying in from Oklahoma in three weeks.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
