Yes,by 5 or 6.
2018 Senate Election Interactive Map
35 U.S. Senate seats to be contested in 2018
https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/
Pretty good analysis with charts
How big of an advantage do we have in the House now?
"...Senate and House of Representatives seats..."
Pretty sure since BroncObama is daily flapping his jaws we gain seats in the H & S + State seats all around the board.
The People are wise that the “D” Party isn’t For THE PEOPLE.
Democrat enthusiasm is high. Unless there are bombshell revelations of Deep State sedition,
Dems gain +33 seats, possibly 55 or more.
9 more than needed for majority.
This is the latest poll on the question:
The poll finds a 2 percent advantage for Democrats.
If that is anywhere near true, the Democrats are absolutely doomed in both the House and the Senate.
The poll is fairly good news for Republicans because the same poll says that Trump’s approval rating is 43.
That is a rather low estimate and shows that even with a skewed polling base, the poll still finds that in Congressional preferences the public prefers democrats by only 2 percent.
Because democrats are concentrated in urban area and house districts are definitively NOT— it is imperative for Democrats to have an at least 6 percent advantage to have a chance to flip the house.
it looks very unlikely right now.
It seems quite possible that the Republicans could gain senate seats—perhaps two.
If Trump fans show up they will hold the house. If we are complacent, we lose the house.
The question is:
If the GOP Leadership had not intentional tanked the election and left Trump hung out to dry, how much more of a majority would the GOP have?
The magic states are:
Tossup
NV
AZ
ND
MO
IN
FL
Tilted Dem
MT
WV
Tilted Rep
TN
TX
Polls aren’t much good yet. At least the ones media show us.
Funniest thing: the Dems lead in generic polls (as they always seem to)... yet don’t mention their Party in their advertising. Seem the two things contradict...
Lose 9 in house, but still retain majority. Gain 3 in the Senate.
NYT is polling swing districts, and showing the results live.
One thing, if you click thru on the individual district results, you see just how much turnout assumptions vary what the estimate is.
Personally, I look at 2014 turnout and 2016 turnout and pick a number between the two.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html
(also, response rates are between one and two percent. So plenty of room for non-response bias)
The odds of holding the House are long. 44 GOP incumbents have retired. The GOP’s only hope is to nationalize the election. Reps must embrace the Trump agenda.
Nobody knows.
Nobody.
I think we will pick up a net of 5 to 6 seats. About 10 to 12 will be exchanged. Much better in the Senate. Shot at super majority. One or 2 net Governor gain. I am liking our chances in PA.
Pray we MUST BRAC......pray we must!!
I want to hear CNN’s Wolfie Blitzer repeat those famous words from the 2010 election: The Democrats took a shellacking.
The 2010 shellacking was a repudiation of Obamacare that the Dems pushed through. That was about the only major accomplishment of Obama in his first 2 years. He did have the massive bailout bills to keep the economy afloat.
The 2018 election has apresident who in 2 years has made a massive turnaround in the overall economy. It has been said that voters vote with their pocketbooks. The massive tax cuts should help.
A big problem is the indoctrination of young people into thinking socialism is the answer to the economy and capitalism is some great evil. Of course, most of them them couldn’t even define ‘socialism’ or ‘capitalism’. Those are the same ones who also seem to buy into the anti-Trump hatred.
Everytime Obama opens his yap, more Republicans are motivated to go to the polls and vote GOP.