Skip to comments.El-Erian: Trump has a 75% chance of winning the trade war
Posted on 09/12/2018 9:17:35 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
President Donald Trumps trade war may soon escalate if the U.S. slaps more tariffs on import goods from China. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at the Allianz Group and former CEO of PIMCO, assuaged U.S. investors by noting that the chance of the U.S. getting a better deal from the trade war is 3-in-4.
I think its really important to make a distinction between the journey and the destination, El-Erian said on Yahoo Finances The Final Round on Tuesday. The journey will involve lots of noise, lots of rhetoric about trade wars, and the technically vulnerable asset classes, such as emerging markets, are going to get hit because of that.
As for the destination, El-Erian predicts a promising outcome for the U.S. The most likely ending of this trade war is a fairer trade system with small tweaks, but no fundamental changes, said El-Erian, assigning a 60% probability to this scenario.
The U.S. will get its way. Well get concessions from other countries, but it wont fundamentally change the whole trading system, he said....
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
Lets see, he had 5% chance of winning the presidency, according to the NYT.
He has a 75% chance of winning the trade war?
At this point, he won the trade war
Then the trade war won't be over until it does. Does no one listen to what Trump is saying? READ. THE. MAN'S. LIPS.
El-Erian has 75% of a brain.
But I hope he is wrong about the outcome. We don’t need a fairer trading system. We need protection of our industries. We need permanent tariffs.
Actually, the market is already acting based upon signs that China is capitulating on trade with the US.
JP Morgan weighed in yesterday:
Of course... die he ever commit his time or energy to anything dodgey?
"The trade war with the United States could cost China 700,000 jobs in the short-term and nearly three million if the conflict spirals out of control. Economists led by Haibin Zhu at JPMorgan Chase outlined the scenarios in a note.
Job losses would kick-in if US President Donald Trump wheels out 25% tariffs on Chinese imports worth another US$200 billion and Beijing retaliates by devaluing the yuan, or renminbi, by 5%, as well as slapping duties on US goods."
Trump has a 100% chance to win the trade wars.
No one that he’s up against has ever had to deal with anything or anyone except other mealy mouthed, spineless politicians.
Not a one of them, nor their “advisers” have a clue.
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