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El-Erian: Trump has a 75% chance of winning the trade war
Yahoo! Finance ^ | September 12, 2018 | Krystal Hu

Posted on 09/12/2018 9:17:35 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

President Donald Trump’s trade war may soon escalate if the U.S. slaps more tariffs on import goods from China. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at the Allianz Group and former CEO of PIMCO, assuaged U.S. investors by noting that the chance of the U.S. getting a better deal from the trade war is 3-in-4.

“I think it’s really important to make a distinction between the journey and the destination,” El-Erian said on Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round on Tuesday. “The journey will involve lots of noise, lots of rhetoric about trade wars, and the technically vulnerable asset classes, such as emerging markets, are going to get hit because of that.”

As for “the destination,” El-Erian predicts a promising outcome for the U.S. The most likely ending of this trade war is a fairer trade system with small tweaks, but no fundamental changes, said El-Erian, assigning a 60% probability to this scenario.

“The U.S. will get its way. We’ll get concessions from other countries, but it won’t fundamentally change the whole trading system,” he said....

(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2018election; 2020election; boycotts; china; economy; election2018; election2020; incometaxes; mohamedelerian; sanctions; tariffs; taxcutsandjobsact; taxreform; tcja; trade; trump

1 posted on 09/12/2018 9:17:35 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Lets see, he had 5% chance of winning the presidency, according to the NYT.

He has a 75% chance of winning the trade war?

At this point, he won the trade war


2 posted on 09/12/2018 9:21:58 AM PDT by Trump.Deplorable
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
but it won’t fundamentally change the whole trading system

Then the trade war won't be over until it does. Does no one listen to what Trump is saying? READ. THE. MAN'S. LIPS.

3 posted on 09/12/2018 9:22:32 AM PDT by LibWhacker
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

El-Erian has 75% of a brain.

But I hope he is wrong about the outcome. We don’t need a fairer trading system. We need protection of our industries. We need permanent tariffs.


4 posted on 09/12/2018 9:23:19 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Actually, the market is already acting based upon signs that China is capitulating on trade with the US.


5 posted on 09/12/2018 9:35:12 AM PDT by Obadiah
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

JP Morgan weighed in yesterday:

http://www.atimes.com/article/us-trade-war-could-cost-millions-of-jobs-in-china/


6 posted on 09/12/2018 9:48:34 AM PDT by ameribbean expat (Socialism is like a nude beach - - sounds great til you actually get there. -- David Burge.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Of course... die he ever commit his time or energy to anything dodgey?


7 posted on 09/12/2018 10:01:31 AM PDT by SMARTY ("Nearly all men can stand adversity...to test a man's character, give him power." A. Lincoln)
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To: ameribbean expat
Both sides have ‘skin in the game’ which means there's a very good chance we'll work together to make trade fair. The only losers will be Washington DC ‘elites’ who have financially benefited from our country being ripped off by China... Hello Joe Biden’s son - and the relatives of hundreds of democrats in Congress and the State Department...


"The trade war with the United States could cost China 700,000 jobs in the short-term and nearly three million if the conflict spirals out of control. Economists led by Haibin Zhu at JPMorgan Chase outlined the scenarios in a note.

Job losses would kick-in if US President Donald Trump wheels out 25% tariffs on Chinese imports worth another US$200 billion and Beijing retaliates by devaluing the yuan, or renminbi, by 5%, as well as slapping duties on US goods."

http://www.atimes.com/article/us-trade-war-could-cost-millions-of-jobs-in-china/

8 posted on 09/12/2018 10:10:25 AM PDT by GOPJ (Deep State power peaked during the McCain funeral - it's down from here on out.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...
Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.

9 posted on 09/12/2018 10:50:51 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (www.tapatalk.com/groups/godsgravesglyphs/, forum.darwincentral.org, www.gopbriefingroom.com)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Trump has a 100% chance to win the trade wars.

No one that he’s up against has ever had to deal with anything or anyone except other mealy mouthed, spineless politicians.

Not a one of them, nor their “advisers” have a clue.


10 posted on 09/12/2018 12:27:36 PM PDT by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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