Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Polling in Real Time: The 2018 Midterm Elections
New York Times / Siena College real time polling [summary vs excerpt] ^ | 09/14/2018

Posted on 09/14/2018 4:06:24 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

The NY Times and Siena College are polling the "tossup" Midterm districts.

Of the polling done in September so far, 7 REPs are leading, 3 DEMs are leading and 1 tied race out of 11 districts polled (DECENT RESULTS FOR REPUBLICANS!)

5 more districts are being polled right now. Results can be viewed in Real Time. Republicans are leading in 3 of the 5.

What is shocking to me is the very low response rate. For example, in Colorado 6, there have been 489 responses out of 26,456 phone calls. That is less than 2% taking the poll. How can that be accurate?

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: accuracy; midterms; polling; polls
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-30 next last
How can that be accurate? Of course, it doesn't seem it can be very accurate.

BTW, sometimes the poll is halted for a time period. It will sometimes say "Continues soon" until it resumes.

1 posted on 09/14/2018 4:06:24 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas

crib notes for those of us who don’t want to click onto the NYSlimes??


2 posted on 09/14/2018 4:09:39 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ravi; LS

ping


3 posted on 09/14/2018 4:10:39 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas
How can that be accurate?

In very simple terms, it can't. A sample of 1,000 can accurately reflect the entire country, if a substantial majority of those contacted respond. A sample can even represent the entire country well when only a small minority responds - if those who respond are consistent from one election to the next. That's what we used to have.

These past three years, we have had a rabid left growing increasingly volatile, violent, and vindictive. Those willing to respond in that environment are no longer a predictable or consistent group. The bottom line for polling this year is simple. We don't know.

4 posted on 09/14/2018 4:11:36 PM PDT by Pollster1 ("Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas
I'll do a poll in real time, right now.

Q: Does the NY Times SUCK?

A: YES!

(Poll results based on one response)

5 posted on 09/14/2018 4:12:25 PM PDT by JPG (MAGA)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas

They all routinely oversample democRATS to skew it to the democRATS

CNN’s poll two days ago was D+10 in the results yet it was D+10 in the sample.


6 posted on 09/14/2018 4:13:10 PM PDT by Ouderkirk (Life is about ass, you're either covering, hauling, laughing, kicking, kissing, or behaving like one)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas

For House seats, district polling is the only way they can have any accuracy. Nationwide polling does not work.


7 posted on 09/14/2018 4:17:21 PM PDT by TomGuy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas

Polling seems to be halted according to time zone, and limiting calls from mid afternoon to ~11pm.

I think it’s worth looking at.

These are competitive races (tossups) the polling is being done from the voters list like the campaigns do.

And, they show that the REPUBs are in surprisingly good shape compared to these national “generic” polls showing a double digit lead.

Democrats would have to win half these races to take the House, and right now, by these polls, they are not doing that.


8 posted on 09/14/2018 4:18:42 PM PDT by Reverend Wright (I am a Putin bot. And I approve this message.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: God luvs America

11 Races Polled so far in September

Colorado 6 Denver Suburbs
51% Crow (D)
40% Coffman (R)
9% Undecided

Wisconsin 1 Southeastern Wisconsin
50% Steil (R)
44% Bryce (D)
6% Undecided

Texas 23 South Texas
51% Hurd (R)
43% Ortiz Jones (D)
7% Undecided

Virginia 7 Richmond suburbs
47% Brat (R)
43% Spanberger (D)
9% Undecided

West Virginia 3 Coal Country
48% Miller (R)
40% Ojeda (D)
12% Undecided

Minnesota 8 Iron Range
44% Radinovich (D)
43% Stauber (R)
13% Undecided

Minnesota 3 Minneapolis suburbs
51% Phillips (D)
42% Paulsen (R)
7% Undecided

Kentucky 6 Lexington area
47% Barr (R)
46% McGrath (D)
7% Undecided

Illinois 6 Chicago suburbs
45% Roskam (R)
44% Casten (D)
11% Undecided

Illinois 12 Downstate Illinois
44% Bost (R)
43% Kelly (D)
13% Undecided

California 48 Orange County
45% Rohrabacher (R)
45% Rouda (D)
10% Undecided


9 posted on 09/14/2018 4:19:48 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Reverend Wright

“they show that the REPUBs are in surprisingly good shape”

Agreed. There are several 1 point races, but given the “generic” numbers, results are good.


10 posted on 09/14/2018 4:21:31 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas

re: response rates of 1-2 percent

even the campaigns supposedly have response rates of around 10 percent, which they get from doing callback after callback.

Also, look at the variance in results for different turnout assumptions, as well as the issue polling

Things could still go south but I think this looks quite optimistic for Repubs


11 posted on 09/14/2018 4:21:59 PM PDT by Reverend Wright (I am a Putin bot. And I approve this message.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Reverend Wright

“variance in results for different turnout assumptions”

Some races have better Rep results with Higher turnout.

Lets hope conservatives get off their butts and vote.


12 posted on 09/14/2018 4:26:45 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas

Add 5 points to each poll for r’s.


13 posted on 09/14/2018 4:29:53 PM PDT by cowboyusa (America Cowboy UP!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas

thanks..


14 posted on 09/14/2018 4:34:09 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas

Conservatives aren’t responding to pollsters’ questions.

Given the low response rates, mid-term polls are way off.

No wonder CNN crowed the Democrats regained the House.

Oh, joy!


15 posted on 09/14/2018 4:37:21 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas

We may well see small Democrat gains in the House (single digit range) and a gain of a few Senate seats by Republicans.


16 posted on 09/14/2018 4:37:36 PM PDT by TBP (Progressives lack compassion and tolerance. Their self-aggrandizement is all that matters.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ouderkirk

Guess why CNN’s Steve King looked so giddy? That’s why!


17 posted on 09/14/2018 4:39:24 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: TBP

Democrats an stay home. They’ve already won and the fake news media is pounding the message home.


18 posted on 09/14/2018 4:40:41 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas
Siena College which has a terrible track record teams up with Head Trump hater Cheerleader NY Slimes .
These Push poll are just Dem party / media campaign tools meant for
psych ops purposes only .
Depress the Gop voter base .
That is all.
19 posted on 09/14/2018 4:48:24 PM PDT by ncalburt (Gop DC Globalists out themselves ever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ncalburt

Yup.

They told people Hillary had it in the bag and they’re conveying the same assurances to the Rats this year.

The election is over. All that’s left is to count the votes.


20 posted on 09/14/2018 4:53:46 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-30 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson