turnout maybe higher but the results won't change as far as who wins. Texas
isn't going to elect democrats to statewide offices yet.
2014 Governor's race, red=GOP - Blue=DEM 
33.7% (of registered voters)
Posted on 09/20/2018 4:13:50 AM PDT by a fool in paradise
Beto is up in the polls they pulled out of their @$$.
This method will give good results for older voters, but it eliminates anyone under 35 which will skew the results.
Drudge is an idiot. He thinks that the GOP will lose 60 seats.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
Quinnipiac polling bias = D +.1
Ipsos polling bias = D +.6
Both are biased toward democrats, and the one with the least bias has the Republican winning by safe margin.
Another thing that doesn’t make sense about this poll is the
fact that this is a STATEWIDE election for STATE government
positions from GOVERNOR on down. Now Texas hasn’t been a
GOP state all that long but I don’t believe that the voters will
vote democrat in the Senate race and GOP in the State offices.
Yep
Have you seen his TV ads. They are bizarre, and don’t make much sense. Which is just the way he really is. I know, I live in the People’s Republic of El Paso.
Sadly 2018 is not on course to be anything like 16....
The GOP messaging is a dud, outside of deep red districts...
PA-18 and OH-12 were not flukes, they are the reality on the ground right now and the arrogance and ignorance being shown in GOP circles refusing to accept this is just as delusional as that the Democrats had thinking Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide.
Dems are going to turn out in near Presidential election numbers... while the GOP have consistently been showing they will get Mid Term level turnouts... With that model, the GOP loses the house.
The GOP has to change its messaging, and start giving those non traditional MAGA voters a reason to care and show up... simply calling the democrats names isn’t going to do it.
The Dems overplaying their hands may indeed engage those voters, but it would be far better if the GOP themselves worked to engage them, and so far, they haven’t... Hopefully they will change course soon.
All I’ve seen is what they put on the news. I’m in MI.
If you believe the current pollsters and pundits you have been puffing on too much reefer or you are simply insane. Without further ado, I suggest you good folks and voters in Texas go on the internet and look at the Democrat, Wendy Davis race for Governor in 2014 against current, Republican, Greg Abbott.
Wendy was the darling of the Obama media...she was going to win the Governorship of Texas by a landslide victory Look at the results folks. Beto O,Rourke is naught but Wendy Davis, 2.0
2014 Governor of Texas Election Final Results:
Abbott - 2,790,227 votes - 59.3 % of the vote.
Davis - 1,832,254 votes - 38.9% of the vote
Greg Abbott is running for Relection in 2018 in Texas. He will win the Governorship with between a 1.5 to 2.0 Million vote victory margin. Bank on it!!! Cruz will win with between a 750,000-1,000,000 victory margin over Democrat, Beto O’Rourke. Bank on it!!!
2014 Governor's race, red=GOP - Blue=DEM
33.7% (of registered voters)
Agree
Please note that Republican, Governor, Greg Abbott is now` leading over Democrat, Lupe Valdez by 19.3% according to Real Clear Politics poll average. Abbott will win Texas with at least a 22% victory margin against Valdez, an extreme nutcase and weak candidate.
Democrat, Beto O’Rourke will fair better losing to Republican, Ted Cruz by a 15% pint margin of victory for Cruz!!! Bottom line, Game over for Democrats in Texas!!!
Sadly 2018 is not on course to be anything like 16....
The GOP messaging is a dud, outside of deep red districts...
...........
Pessimism sucks.
Its not pessimism, its observable reality.
The GOP Ecosphere doesn’t have a clue what it needs to do to win, or if it does, doesn’t have the foggiest idea how to do it.. even though Trump in 2016 showed them exactly how to do it.
Instead of learning those lessons, they continue to offer messaging that is the same they have for the last 20 years... and that isn’t going to work. Didn’t work in PA-18, Didn’t work in OH-12... Hell it HASN’T WORKED ANYWHERE!
When your opposing party is CONSISTENTLY getting Presidential year turnouts, and you are at best getting mid term level turnouts, you AREN’T going to hold your 23 seat Majority.... The only reason the GOP hasn’t lost more of these special elections is simply because most of them have been in districts so deep red, that even with presidential year turnouts by the dems, mid term level R turnout have been more than enough to hold.. But there are far more than 23 districts where THAT IS NOT TRUE... and the GOP is on path to lose a lot of them (purple), and probably some pink ones too.
Just like it was blindingly obvious that Trump was going to march right up the upper mid west to take the Presidency in 2016.. Its just as obvious the GOP e messaging to date isn’t going to win them anything but districts that are already deep red.
In PA Trump brought 1 MM more votes than any Republican in recent times... and he didn’t do it by simply saying Hillary was bad (though he did) He did it by talking to disenfranchised voters, across the spectrum and got them to believe HE WAS WITH THEM!!!... PERIOD.
IF you think, simply trying to label the Dem as a Pelosi sheep is going to win you elections in the upper midwest, with a motivated and engaged D base.. you are a flat out fool. Those 1 MM voters Trump found in PA, (and millions more across the upper midwest) a lot of them are multi generational Democrats... They aren’t going to be motivated by simply name calling and bad mouthing a democratic opponent... That sort of message NEVER got them to show up and vote R anytime before Trump.. but somehow, now... NOW that’s going to work? BS!!!
They didn’t suddenly become hard core, right wing, GOP Kool Aid drinkers... Their party abandoned them, but the didn’t jump to being a deep red Republican in 2016... They largely had disengaged, they weren’t just going to vote R because they weren’t a D.. they voted for TRUMP because he gave them a MESSAGE AND A REASON TO!! And that reason wasn’t Hillary’s evil... The reason was they had watched free trade and illegal aliens and opiods destroy their communites, and NO ONE, ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AISLE CARED!
Trump talked to them.. he told them I hear you, I am with you, and I am going to stop it...
I called 2016 for Trump early on, and predicted (accurately I might add) that trump would take the entire upper midwest, with the sole exceptions of IL and MN... and I was right... I also state PA-18 very possibly would go D, after watching the horrible messaging used for it... This was a race that even with a poor candidate should have never been closer than 3 points... a good candidate would have been 8+.. yet, the D eeked it out, and it was ALL because of the message was CRAP! OH 12 was the same message, and virtually the same result.. a district that R should have won by double digits, and they eek out a slim win and think they are winners?!!?!?
Folks need to wake up. With the messaging the GOP has been using to day, ANY DISTRICT, where the Democratic Presidential year turnout numbers are greater that Republican mid term turn out numbers historically is absolutely in play for the Democrats..... an that’s a LOT more than 23 districts... NO, the GOP won’t lose all of them, but if they keep this stupid stupid stupid messaging they have been using they will lose the house... They will lose 10+ seats in the upper midwest alone.
Now it looks like with that surprise win in TX they may be waking up to what I have been saying since March! That the messaging has to give the voters, and by voters I mean people outside the traditional R base, a REASON to care, show up and vote GOP... Short of that, the only shot the GOP has of holding the house is hoping that the D’s antics engage those non traditional MAGA voters.. because the GOP sure as hell is doing NOTHING to engage or motivate them themselves... and without them.. they LOSE a lot this fall
With less than 40% turnout, risks getting a statewide D sooner than most admit... low turnout and apathy are going to let a motivated D minority sneek out a win a lot sooner than folks realize....
People down in TX better wake up and start showing up to vote... or they are going wake up with D statewide win a lot sooner than they think
or they are going wake up with D statewide win
a lot sooner than they think
***********
You have to realize that it hasn’t been many years ago that texas was solid democrat.
There have been only three GOP Govs going back to late 1800s, the last three,
Yes, Texas was one of the last old south states to re-align... but complacency is a big big risk with some of the lowest average turnout numbers in national elections.
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