Chinese control of South China Sea ‘short of war’ is complete

Great Power War ^ | 9/24/18 | USA Features

[PGR88]

I predicted in 2010: the Chinese, Russians and Iranians should grab whatever they wanted, because Obama, Democrats and their pliant media would do or say nothing about it.

I guess they were listening to me.

[Zhang Fei]

[More nonsense.

They would not be able to hide that arsenal from US surveillance. US intelligence pegs them below 300, mostly tactical.]

---

The way US surveillance was unable to predict the Indian, Pakistani and North Korean tests, I’d be leery of anything it says re foreign nuclear capabilities, especially with respect to a Chinese state that has enacted severe penalties against the disclosure something as commonplace as economic statistics. Note the wholesale rollup of Chinese agents, thanks possibly to Hillary’s use of a private (and penetrated) e-mail server.

The US intelligence services are probably the worst of all the major powers, except in wartime sigint and satellite intel. And even the latter were unable to prevent the shootdown of a stealth warplane operated by an adversary with 2% of the population of the US, and whose principal export was the Yugo. Then there was the miscued targeting of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade.

[MeganC]

“We should not give a damn about the south China Sea.”

Just curious but how much of the ocean is China allowed to claim as theirs before you give a damn?

[central_va]

And nukes are the price of an Aircraft Carrier. Or US airfield. Or SSN etc.

That's crazy. Explain why then North Korea, North Vietnam and Afghanistan were never nuked? LOL!

The next war will be conventional conventional conventional conventional. Did I mention the next war will be conventional?

[central_va]

Any war between the US and China, or the US and Russia inevitably goes nuclear.

Nope, not going to happen.

[Midwesterner53]

They knew Obama and his non defense department would look the other way, that is, show flexibility.

[ASA Vet]

why have the enviroweenies been so strangely quiet

Simple, their fellow Commies are doing it.

[Mariner]

“Explain why then North Korea, North Vietnam and Afghanistan were never nuked?”

Because they didn’t take out one of those assets.

[Zhang Fei]

[Any war between the US and China, or the US and Russia inevitably goes nuclear. And the losing side is most likely to cross the threshold first.]

---

I’d say it inevitably stays conventional. Because national leaders like to stay alive. They also like having family members and friends in good health. They also don’t like having their names associated with the destruction of tens of millions of their kinfolk. It’s not that they’re great humanitarians. It’s just that there’s no benefit to fighting a nuclear war against a country that has substantial retaliatory ability and good early warning systems. Now against a conventionally-armed foe with no retaliatory ability, that is beating them conventionally, I’d say there a chance of a limited nuclear attack. But not against a peer nuclear power with counterforce ability. Again, this is the same reason neither German nor Japanese troops use chemical weapons against the Western Allies - fear of massive retaliation.

[Mariner]

“I really don’t see why we should go to war over some islands with nothing worthwhile on them in the South China Sea, let alone a nuclear war.”

I never said we should.

[Mariner]

“sigint and satellite intel”

That’s how you find Nuke delivery systems.

Believe as you wish.

[Celerity]

If the Chinese have power, they will flaunt it. Perhaps not against us, but against everyone in their region.

But saying “over a thousand nukes” is like saying “A couple trillion, here and there”

If China wants to use even a single nuke then it’s end of life as we know it.

[The Westerner]

Remember the Long Beach, CA shipyard through which much of China's goods pass in shipping containers. Remember who gave away control of it and permitted Cosco to roll its trucks freely in the US? Bill Clinton. How many containers are inspected? How many Chinese slip across our Southern border? How many of the Chinese immigrants living in the USA are agents? Or part of sleeper cells?

How long has this been going on?

[Afterguard]

While I agree with your assessment, their persistent push to acquire facilities closer to CONUS is troubling. They already have a substantial but as yet unused base in the Bahamas, and they are snooping around the failed state of Venezuela for a continental base close to our southern border. We seem to be asleep to their encroachment.

Should push come to shove we could defeat them any time and any place even without going nuclear, but it would be very costly and very ugly.

[Zhang Fei]

[That’s how you find Nuke delivery systems.

Believe as you wish.]

---

And underground tunnels are how you avoid detection. Forget underground tunnels. Notice how we had to send Special Forces soldiers into the Iraqi desert to find their Scuds during Desert Storm. And our guys in Saudi Arabia still got hit, to say nothing of the dozens of Scuds that landed in Israel. Where was that sigint and satellite surveillance? And Saddam’s regime was a ramshackle affair that couldn’t keep the country’s economy afloat despite massive oil wealth. Whereas China has sent men into space.

You can believe what you want. But I simply cannot believe that $200b of Chinese defense expenditures buys less than our $700b number (which includes ~$50b for combat operations in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan), given the 8 to 1 salary disparity. That money has to go somewhere. And I’m betting that somewhere is nukes, in addition to the new tank, helicopter, ship and aircraft types the Chinese seem to be coming out with every two or three years.

[Rashputin]

Traffic into the South China Sea can be choked off with land based missiles around the Malacca Strait, the Java Sea, and the Luzon Strait.

Make a deal with them to protect traffic in the South China with a joint force and the problem goes away quickly. The only reason not to make that sort of deal is because having that sort of arrangement would reduce the size of the forces the US has to keep in Asia.

Too bad the Russians don't have a blue water navy like they once did or we could have enough excuses to build four more carriers and a few dozen four billion dollar apiece destroyers like the Zumwalt capable of firing million dollar a round magic Z grams from its super guns.

Unless the Russians build up their fleet again I guess we'll just have to make do with fostering fear of China wanting to protect waters through which 95% of their trade with the world flows instead of working out something with them.

I mean, what kind of evil azz hoes would want to dominate the waters their own vital trade flows through, right?

[The_Media_never_lie]

How about if we do the same thing, put in our own island bases and they will have to launch a war to stop us.

---

Because of the supply chain, it would be very expensive for us.

[SuperLuminal]

20,000 shipping containers sitting on the east coast of the U.S.

If the chicoms only have 50 nukes and they are distributed up and down the east coast, they will be used if there is a war...

Of course there is little reason for the chicoms would want a war since, for the past 30-years, they have already acquired wealth, technology, and military secrets from the U.S. citizens without shedding a drop of either blood or sweat...It's called "winning"...

OTOH, a bigger threat situated (unencumbered) throughout the U.S. is the 25-30 "no-go" jihad-training compounds which are preparing to be used to train all 2-3 million ragheads in America to participate in widespread destruction and American deaths...

This will happen as soon as the approx 1500 new (since 9/11) mosques (storage and planning facilities) in America give the word...

BLOAT

[Fai Mao]

Saipan is part of the US.

[WellyP]

Three Gorges Dam!