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Dave Brat trailing in reelection bid
The Hill ^ | 9/25/18 | MICHAEL BURKE

Posted on 09/25/2018 9:48:36 AM PDT by lasereye

Republican Rep. Dave Brat is trailing Democrat Abigail Spanberger by five points in a Virginia district that hasn't sent a Democrat to the House in more than 45 years, according to a new poll.

Spanberger has the support of 47 percent of potential voters, compared to Brat's 42 percent, according to a Monmouth University survey released Tuesday. Spangberger's lead is just outside the poll's margin of error, which is 4.9 percentage points.

Virginia's 7th Congressional District used to be solidly red, but courts forced the state to redraw it shortly after Brat was elected in 2014 following a shocking GOP primary defeat of then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. President Trump won the district by 6 points in 2016.

Spangberger's lead in the new poll comes from support in Chesterfield County and Henrico County, two Richmond suburbs. Brat leads by 22 points, 57 percent to 35 percent, in the other parts of the district, according to the poll.

Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, called the race a "tale of two districts."

"The Richmond suburbs that backed Clinton in 2016 support Spanberger while the Trump strongholds are firmly behind Brat," he said. "The reason this race is so close right now is because there are more voters in the suburban areas."

The poll's results are based on interviews with 400 potential voters in the district from Sept. 15 to 24.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as a "toss-up." FiveThirtyEight gives Brat about a 70 percent chance to win his reelection bid.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2018midterms; 2018polls; brat; spanberger; spangberger; va2018
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The reason this race is so close right now is because there are more voters in the suburban areas

Not sure what that means. Has the Richmond suburban population grown relative to the rest of the district?

This is my own district. I live in Fredericksburg, which is growing pretty rapidly from the looks of things. There's construction all over the place and traffic seems worse every year. It has lots of people who commute to DC and the surrounding DC suburbs. I wonder if most of the recent arrivals are voting Democrat.

FiveThirtyEight gives Brat about a 70 percent chance to win his reelection bid.

Is this good news or bad news?

1 posted on 09/25/2018 9:48:36 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

4.9 MOE? Suspect. Going to check out survey fundamentals. Sounds fishy.


2 posted on 09/25/2018 9:50:24 AM PDT by StAntKnee (Add your own danged sarc tag)
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To: lasereye

November 8, 2016


3 posted on 09/25/2018 9:51:27 AM PDT by Pilgrim's Progress (http://www.baptistbiblebelievers.com/BYTOPICS/tabid/335/Default.aspx D)
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To: Pilgrim's Progress

Yeah many pollsters got the Presidential race wrong then. But at the same time they were generally accurate on the other races. It’s unwise to assume the 2016 Presidential polling is predictive for this year.


4 posted on 09/25/2018 9:57:07 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: Pilgrim's Progress

“400 potential voters”? What the hell does that mean? I am in this district, I predict that Brat will win by between 3 and 5 percent.


5 posted on 09/25/2018 9:57:53 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: lasereye

It says that they interviewed “potential” voters. Does that mean likely or not.


6 posted on 09/25/2018 9:58:18 AM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: lasereye

99% chance of her winning!

Just like they predicted for HilLiARy


7 posted on 09/25/2018 9:59:05 AM PDT by Mr. K (No consequence of repealing Obamacare is worse than Obamacare itself.)
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To: lasereye

“This is my own district. I live in Fredericksburg...”

I spent several days in Fredericksburg about twenty years ago. Visited some CW battlefields. Liked the feel of the town. It didn’t have that NoVa feeling. I remember back then thinking “I could move and live here”. One of my favorite memories was grabbing a copy of The Washington Times and walking up to the platform of the railroad depot, sitting on a bench with a Coke and unwinding after a long day of touring. I’d sit and watch some of the trains as they went by. It was nice.

But from what I’ve been reading over the last few years, it looks more and more like Fredericksburg is becoming a NoVa exurb.


8 posted on 09/25/2018 9:59:07 AM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: mrs9x

There’s a big difference between registered voters and likely voters. Fake poll!


9 posted on 09/25/2018 10:00:03 AM PDT by wewereright
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To: lasereye

Is this good news or bad news?

FAKE NEWS!


10 posted on 09/25/2018 10:00:22 AM PDT by TheNext (Anonymous Source)
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To: FlipWilson

Good question.


11 posted on 09/25/2018 10:00:32 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

Excellent point.

But from what polls I have been seeing, it looks like Dems are being oversampled.


12 posted on 09/25/2018 10:00:49 AM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: lasereye

Monmouth University Polling Institute
National
Clinton Leads by 6 Points
Monday, November 07, 2016
Most expect Clinton to win, few believe system is rigged

West Long Branch, NJ - Hillary Clinton is currently ahead of Donald Trump by 6 points among likely voters.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_110716/
_________________________________________

Just for historical reference


13 posted on 09/25/2018 10:01:38 AM PDT by Mr. K (No consequence of repealing Obamacare is worse than Obamacare itself.)
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To: mrs9x

“400 potential voters”?

That means they may be mostly dead.


14 posted on 09/25/2018 10:01:38 AM PDT by Flick Lives
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To: TheNext

I was referring to the fact that FiveThirtyEight gives Brat a 70 percent chance to win. Given their accuracy in 2016 I was thinking that could be bad news.


15 posted on 09/25/2018 10:03:01 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

Anything that has university in I would not believe. Especially when the subject is against a Republican.


16 posted on 09/25/2018 10:03:08 AM PDT by Harpotoo (bEING A SOCIALIST IS A LOT EASIER THAN HAVING TO WORK LIKE THE REST OF us.)
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To: lasereye

Monmouth U. just telling Liberal judges where to draw the new redistrict lines to make the seat safe Democrat.


17 posted on 09/25/2018 10:03:23 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: lasereye

Uh-oh.

Brat is one of the best of the good guys.


18 posted on 09/25/2018 10:06:15 AM PDT by karnage
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To: lasereye
Likely voters has it tied. He is likely ahead by 1 point.
19 posted on 09/25/2018 10:06:18 AM PDT by cowboyusa (America Cowboy UP!)
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To: lasereye

5pts in Sept isn’t bad at all. GOP makes up ground in Oct.


20 posted on 09/25/2018 10:06:30 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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