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Even the Seemingly Disappointing Job Creation Numbers Are Actually Pretty Great
New York Times ^ | Oct 5, 2018 | Neil Irwin

Posted on 10/05/2018 8:20:08 AM PDT by edwinland

The September jobs numbers are the 2018 United States economy in a nutshell: Even when an economic report is bad these days, it’s actually pretty good.

When the latest numbers first were broadcast at 8:30 a.m. Friday, it looked like a big disappointment. Employers added only 134,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, well below the levels of recent months and well below what forecasters had projected.

But even apart from the usual warnings about statistical error and randomness (the true rate of job creation could turn out to be either much higher or much lower), the numbers are a good bit better than that single data point suggests.

...

And revisions to previous months’ numbers were positive, so there was more momentum heading into September than it had seemed. August was already reported to be strong, but now looks to have been a blockbuster month for job creation — the previously reported 201,000 jobs added has been revised up to 270,000.

In other words, if you simply took those 69,000 extra jobs created in August and credit them to September, suddenly you would have two months of very steady job creation at a high rate.

...

It’s the latest piece of evidence that 2018 is set to be the best year for the United States economy in quite a long time.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Business/Economy; Canada; Mexico; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2018election; 2020election; boycotts; canada; dnctalkingpoint; dnctalkingpoints; economy; election2018; election2020; incometaxes; jobsjobsjobs; mediawingofthednc; mexico; nafta; neilirwin; newyork; newyorkcity; newyorkslimes; newyorktimes; partisanmediashills; presstitutes; sanctions; smearmachine; tariffs; taxcutsandjobsact; taxreform; tcja; trade; trumpeconomy; trumployment; unemployment; usmca
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Worth reading all the way through. Very insightful.
1 posted on 10/05/2018 8:20:08 AM PDT by edwinland
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To: edwinland

Make things in America again.

Just saying...


2 posted on 10/05/2018 8:23:57 AM PDT by cba123 ( Toi la nguoi My. Toi bay gio o Viet Nam.)
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To: edwinland

“It’s the latest piece of evidence that 2018 is set to be the best year for the United States economy in quite a long time.”

Who’da thunk all this from a nazi-racist-misogynist-bigot.


3 posted on 10/05/2018 8:24:19 AM PDT by Rennes Templar (Trump: America First. Obama: Quran First. Clintons: Money First)
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To: edwinland

The Slimes has the sads. :(


4 posted on 10/05/2018 8:25:38 AM PDT by fwdude (Forget the Catechism, the RCC's real doctrine is what they allow with impunity.)
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To: edwinland

Don’t be fooled by soft headline figure in NFP( non- farm payroll).

Not at work due to bad weather ran close to 300K in September.

Well above normal, likely weighing on retail trade and leisure & hospitality sectors.

The revision up from 200K to 270K in August is an amazing figure.


5 posted on 10/05/2018 8:26:00 AM PDT by ALX
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To: edwinland

I wonder if author Neil Irwin will have a job after this.


6 posted on 10/05/2018 8:27:19 AM PDT by fwdude (Forget the Catechism, the RCC's real doctrine is what they allow with impunity.)
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To: edwinland
Just heard through the grapevine that Pfizer is hiring hundreds. Starting pay increasing 20-30% to attract talent.

Everywhere I go I see help wanted signs.

7 posted on 10/05/2018 8:27:27 AM PDT by onona (It is often wise to allow a person a graceful path.)
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To: edwinland

Fascinating. Especially the fact that unemployment rate is the lowest since Nixon. But guess what, inflation is about half what it was under Nixon. How low can we go before we have to worry about inflation? Im not an economist so I can’t even make an educated guess. But I’m starting to believe Scott Adams when he talks about this being the Golden Age.


8 posted on 10/05/2018 8:31:26 AM PDT by scottinoc
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To: edwinland

Look what happens when obama starts taking credit for the economy...


9 posted on 10/05/2018 8:36:22 AM PDT by silverleaf (A man who kneels for the national anthem doesn't stand for much of anything)
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To: scottinoc

It is amazing, but (in my humble opinion) this is what you get when you have real growth for a reason rather than Fed-stoked fake growth based on artificially low interest rates (which is what we had since 2009).

The reason in this case is the absolutely shocking reversal of American corporate tax policy from a punishment for anyone making the mistake of putting their headquarters in the US (by sticking them with a tax rate almost double the world average and applying it to all their income whether in the US or not), to a rate pretty close to the world average, so you can start your company in the best country in the world without being punished for doing so.

With a lot of new companies and old companies growing, you can pay higher wages, and also you’re making more stuff, so you get more demand and more supply and hence it doesn’t spike inflation.


10 posted on 10/05/2018 8:40:02 AM PDT by edwinland
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To: scottinoc

How low can we go before we have to worry about inflation?


Allowing them unemployment rate to keep going down while trying to stem immigration is helping to recreate a work ethic in the very hard to employ group of people who have not had a job in a long while. It is also luring teens and older folk into the work force. This helps the economy now and in the future. It also lowers the crime rate. And helps people get health insurance. Inflation is now at 2% and will undoubtedly increase. But inflation is important every once in a while. Governments over spend, inflation allows tax revenue to increase to help pay the debt.


11 posted on 10/05/2018 8:40:38 AM PDT by poinq
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To: fwdude
Don't let the writer off the hook.

The casual LIV could easily interpret this headline to essentially mean "things are not as bad as they may seem."

The NYT will never tell it like it is if it's going to positively portray DJT in any way.

12 posted on 10/05/2018 8:45:08 AM PDT by daler
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To: onona

My little company has broken records for month, quarter and year ...and we’ve still got three months to go!


13 posted on 10/05/2018 9:20:48 AM PDT by Walrus (Homosexuality is WRONG. End of case.)
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To: scottinoc

The labor participation rate declined 4% right around the time Obama came into office. It was made easy to qualify for disability so many did. Or those who were out of work for a year or more were claimed to have “given up” (though nobody ever asked them if they had) and thus both sets of people were not counted as officially unemployed......even though many wanted to work and were fully capable of working. To actually count all these people would have DOUBLED the unemployment rate the government had to report. Now we all know, that can’t be permitted - not with Obama in the White House.

The reason you are not seeing inflation is the real unemployment rate is higher than what’s been reported. President Trump has done a magnificent job, but there is still further to go to repair all the damage from the Great Recession - made far worse by 8 years of Obama’s Leftist policies.


14 posted on 10/05/2018 9:24:14 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: daler

The NYT doesn’t have the guts to say why the economy is doing well now - ie Trump coming in and undoing everything Obama did. It doesn’t have the intellectual honesty to put the quotes from Krugman and others up showing things have turned out to be exactly the opposite of what they predicted when Trump cut taxes, cut regulation and renegotiated trade agreements to get a better deal for America.


15 posted on 10/05/2018 9:28:24 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: onona; edwinland; All

“Everywhere I go I see help wanted signs.”

Me, too! I’m tempted to go back to work part time just to be part of the Trumpconomy and throw more $ at my IRA while the market keeps going up, too. (Four years to go before I start drawing SS.)

We BARELY survived the 0bama years. During that time I was working full-time, managing a Garden Center. All of that 0bamacare CR@P really cost us a lot of time and money, not to mention disappointment to long-time employees who lost their insurance and Flex Plans through us.

Nice to see The New York Slimes HAVING to print this! MAGA!


16 posted on 10/05/2018 9:38:32 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set.)
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To: scottinoc
"Especially the fact that unemployment rate is the lowest since Nixon."

More significant is that it occurred during the height of the Vietnam War when millions of young males were out of the civilian job market.

17 posted on 10/05/2018 10:22:03 AM PDT by Buffalo Head (Illegitimi non carborundum)
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To: silverleaf
I love DjT, but he had a relatively easy job because of the dam Obama built to stifle our economy. Once the dam was broken (red tape regulations, etc.) it was Katie bar the door.

How simple, which begs the question why wouldn't Obama do it.

America must be brought to its knees.....it's not faaaair to the rest of the worlld

18 posted on 10/05/2018 12:34:54 PM PDT by chiller (Race is irrelevant in these United States; just shades of skin color)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...
NY Slimes spins the good news.

19 posted on 10/05/2018 11:21:33 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (www.tapatalk.com/groups/godsgravesglyphs/, forum.darwincentral.org, www.gopbriefingroom.com)
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To: edwinland

You crystallized it. Economic policy does not have to be arcane science. Lower taxes stoke job growth and hiring, boosts wages and income growth, and fuels GDP. People want opportunities to earn a fair wage. They (most) don’t want handouts. Simple, but politicians muck it up. Thank God President Trump gets it.


20 posted on 10/05/2018 11:40:24 PM PDT by confederatecarpetbag
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