Real Clear Politics "Senate No Toss Ups 2018" GOP +2 Dem 0

Real Clear Politics ^ | October 13, 2018

[SMGFan]

Senate No Toss Ups 2018

Democrats 0 Pick Ups

GOP 2 Pick Ups Mo & ND

[SMGFan]

Democrats no longer have edge in Nevada & Arizona.

Now to fight for WVA, Fla, MT, WI, MI, PA

[DarthVader]

RCP is junk. The Dems are going to get killed.

[FlipWilson]

RCP was useful when it first launched. Then the Dems figured out how to game it by abysmally skewing onenor two polls that RCP uses for its average thus ensuring that the average would be crap as well.

[Nuc 1.1]

IMHO GOP+6 perhaps +8.

[HamiltonJay]

Hahah GOP is getting way more than 2 in the senate

[stars & stripes forever]

I am sick of hearing the House is going to flip Democratic. Why only the Senate picking up seats???

Ridiculous.

[ZULU]

Maybe Jersey and W. VA too

[j.havenfarm]

I don’t know if it’s gamed or not, but the average is a lagging indicator but definition

[DarthVader]

I think it’s going to be worse. They know it’s coming too and are in denial.

[oblomov]

I hope IN comes around and sends Mike Braun to the Senate as well.

[DarthVader]

It is nothing more than their mantra. They are reduced to propaganda to keep their hopes up. The Kavanaugh fiasco and violent behavior is the last straw with many.

[SunkenCiv]

We've got a great pilot at the tiller. We still gotta row.

[Kozy]

Are they a NAte Silver spin off? GOp picks up 6 seats.

[Wayne07]

+2 would be a big disappointment. This should have been the election to achieve 60, not save the bare majority.

[notpoliticallycorewrecked]

Most people are not willing to inform anyone who they are really voting for. They are tired of being labeled as homophobic, Islamaphobic, misogynistic, and racist. So they just keep their mouths shut and tell people what they want to hear and then do what they want when they actually vote.

That is why Hilary was going to win in a landslide that did not happen. The only people that believe the MSM polls is the MSM. It is going to be a repeat of 16 in 18, and in 20.

[Fai Mao]

The thing is that averaging polls over time show a picture of where things are from date “X” to Date “Y” when the only number that counts is “Y”

On election day it does not matter how people felt three weeks ago.

Lastly, polls measure sentiment elections measure turnout.

[Kozy]

Are they a Nate Silver spin off? GOP picks up 6 seats and holds the House. People aren’t voting for the Mob.

[Nifster]

I think it will be 5-8

[SMGFan]

got 24 days to go.

[palmer]

The senate pickups for us are primarily red states and red state voters are mad about Kavanaugh. The house districts that we are probably going to lose are blue districts. The blue voters there (e.g. DC suburbs) are motivated to vote D. There is little chance of that changing.

There's enough red voter motivation to keep house districts in red states like NC so the house will be very close.