Posted on 10/13/2018 4:20:40 PM PDT by SMGFan
I tend to believe that any state which has reflected a statistically significant advantage to the Republican Senate candidate at any time during the year will finally go Republican.
Basically, I have seen nothing at all happening that would cause a person who stated they would vote Republican to change his mind and not do so.
7 seats have gone from tossup to leans GOP in just the last 10 days!
The Senate: because the dems are defending 26 or so seats and the republicans are defending 9. Ten of those dem seats are in red states. So the math is with the republicans. The opposite situation occurs in 2020, so the repubs need to win big in 2018 to protect against losses in 2020.
The House: There has been almost 50 republican retirements resulting in open seats, which is a record. We all know it is harder to defend an open seat for various reasons. Penn was ordered to redo their congressional districts which will result in 3 republican losses. There is district 10 in Virginia, which Comstock will lose probably bigly. There are two indicted republican congressmen, one in NY and one in Cali, with polls showing narrow margins for the republicans, but the dems are focusing on these two districts and all bets are off. Repubs can lose only 23 seats, so with the three Penn losses and Comstock, the party is down to 19 seats and 17 seats if the indicted congressmen lose. There are about 40 competitive districts this election and only three are controlled by the dems. Some republican super pacs and other campaign committees have already pulled out of some of these races and have given up on some races already. Historically, the party with the White House loses seats in the midterms. Only twice that did not happen since WW2. So, it will be difficult, but hopefully we will keep the House.
“+2 would be a big disappointment. This should have been the election to achieve 60, not save the bare majority.”
You’re right. With the Dims having to defend so many more Senate seats than the Rs, and the strong wind of a great economy at their back, the Rs should rout them in the Senate. A couple of Senate seat pickups for the Rs would be weak with the respective number of Senate seats each party is defending.
[There is little chance of that changing.]
Hopefully, a percentage of the black and Hispanic communities will switch to Republican.
Remember, margin of error works both ways. If a poll shows Trump ahead by 48 to 45 and the margin of error is three points...then that means Trump's support could be as low as 45 or as high as 51. Likewise, the dem could be as low as 42 or as high as 48.
My guess is the Republicans hold Nevada and pick up FL, MO, ND and at least one of MT or IN.
Agreed, but from what I have read, the dems have been very good in arguing that if the Pubs do away with Obamacare, they will do away with insuring pre-existing conditions. This has moved the vote and apparently there has not been much of a response from the pubs. I noticed in Iowa the other night, Trump specifically said in his speech that any healthcare would include insuring pre-existing conditions. I’m not in a competitive state, but apparently there have been a lot of ads accusing the pubs of doing away with health insurance.
How is Nelson going to survive his Kavanaugh vote? Unless his opponent is Brain-dead.
How is Nelson going to survive his Kavanaugh vote? Unless his opponent is Brain-dead.
My current prediction is 56-60 GOP seats, depending on the depth of the wave.
My guess right now is pickups in North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana are a virtual lock. Florida, West Virginia, and Montana are definite possibilities. I would not be shocked if one of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Ohio is a surprise pickup, with Wisconsin being the most likely of those three.
Hearing Rosendale is up slightly in new Eutholythics poll.
The Rats are defending 10 seats in states carried by DJT. We’re defending 1 in a state which ILLary carried.
There's nothing democratic about the Democrat party.
Agreed. I don’t mean to come across as an apologist for the polls per se, but they aren’t as bad as advertised. Those new NYT polls are fascinating - live even. Perhaps even they realize the media’s reputation can use a burst of honest reporting.
Some people will indeed vote with their fellow rioters, but it's reasonable to say that *most* people will vote Pubbie in most places, and turnout will be depressed for Demwit candidates in most places, because of disgust over their peak-party antics.
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