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ABC: Generic Ballot In Battleground Districts Is R+1?
Long room.com ^ | Oct 15, 2018

Posted on 10/15/2018 4:37:06 PM PDT by 11th_VA

The key to voter enthusiasm in this midterm cycle may be the same as it is in real estate: Location, location, location. ABC News’ Rick Klein takes a look at the current generic-ballot polling from the latest Washington Post/ABC partnership and notes that the double-digit Democratic lead would normally spell curtains for the GOP. However, Klein points out that almost all of it comes in districts well in hand for Democrats — and that the battleground looks different:

If this was a national referendum on President Donald Trump, he’d be set for a thumping, or a shellacking, or whatever word a president not named Trump might select in conceding defeat.

Nationwide - Trump - Percent - Approval - Rating

Nationwide, Trump has a 41 percent approval rating, and Democrats have a 53-42 percent edge in the generic ballot for the House. But inside the 66 districts that are tossups, or only leaning toward one party or the other — the majority makers, or breakers — that lead evaporates into a 46-47 Democrats v. Republicans race.

It’s a similar dynamic — driven by Democratic strength in cities, and weaknesses in rural areas — that is driving House and Senate forecasts in opposite directions, amid a campaign close set to be dominated by the president.

Perspective - WaPo/ABC - Ballot - Result - Outer

It could be even worse than that from the Democratic perspective. The WaPo/ABC generic ballot result is on the outer edge of the aggregation at RCP, where Democrats have a 7.3-point lead. It’s probably too much to call it an outlier, as Reuters and CNN both give Democrats similar leads, but most other recent polls put the difference in single digits. Rasmussen calls it a solid tie and IBD/TIPP has it at D+2, but most of the polls are in the D+6 -to- D+8 range.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2018election; 2018midterms; 2018polls; 2020election; duplicate; election2018; election2020; searchworks
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Nice ...
1 posted on 10/15/2018 4:37:06 PM PDT by 11th_VA
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To: 11th_VA

Gee, we’ve seen this exact game leading up to the 2016 election.


2 posted on 10/15/2018 4:40:14 PM PDT by romanesq (For George Soros so loved the world, he gave us Obama)
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To: 11th_VA

Fake polls are Rat oversampled. It will be much closer by Election Day and R turnout is always underestimated.

Don’t put stock in them.


3 posted on 10/15/2018 4:41:23 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A I Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: 11th_VA

Most of those toss up seats are currently GOP seats, so it’s not so nice.


4 posted on 10/15/2018 4:42:04 PM PDT by Trumpisourlastchance
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To: romanesq

Yup. It may be a Democrat landslide. I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.


5 posted on 10/15/2018 4:42:37 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A I Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: romanesq

I know. It’s eerie. I had the same reaction.


6 posted on 10/15/2018 4:42:54 PM PDT by MrChips ("To wisdom belongs the apprehension of eternal things." - St. Augustine)
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To: Trumpisourlastchance

Democrats and fake news media have been chortling its over.

Let’s wait til the actual votes are counted.


7 posted on 10/15/2018 4:44:31 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A I Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Trumpisourlastchance

Perhaps, but while they are always talking about Dems flipping Rep districts, you rarely hear talk of Repubs flipping Dem districts . . . and there are several places where that might happen.


8 posted on 10/15/2018 4:45:09 PM PDT by MrChips ("To wisdom belongs the apprehension of eternal things." - St. Augustine)
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To: goldstategop

But act as if they were gospel.


9 posted on 10/15/2018 4:46:12 PM PDT by MortMan (The white board is a remarkable invention.)
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To: MrChips

The ABC poll was run for one reason...to pump up the DNC base...


10 posted on 10/15/2018 4:46:28 PM PDT by MaxistheBest (...)
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To: 11th_VA

1. How does that compare to the past in those same districts?

2. Why use the generic, when polls are available in those actual races?


11 posted on 10/15/2018 4:51:47 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: 11th_VA

Leftists self segregate into big cities.

Kills them when they win cities 90/10 and lose everywhere else 55/45.


12 posted on 10/15/2018 4:56:35 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (No Republican Senator should vote for any Democrat Presidents Supreme Court nominee ever again.)
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To: 11th_VA

Wasn’t 2010 R+1 as well?


13 posted on 10/15/2018 4:59:23 PM PDT by Shadow44
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To: 11th_VA

Checked out @FloridaGuy’s twitter feed, he’s been releasing his own polls for weeks showing a RED WAVE, and now the commie media is starting to roll out polls confirming he is right..you all just watch before the midterm election the commie media will report on the “Real” polls showing the GOP winning


14 posted on 10/15/2018 5:00:04 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Shadow44

2010 GOP won a big House majority.

Worst that could happen is a split Congress. Rats in the House may be able to impeach on a party-live vote but it will die in a GOP Senate.


15 posted on 10/15/2018 5:08:07 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A I Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Uncle Miltie

If only the 45 would wake up.


16 posted on 10/15/2018 5:09:10 PM PDT by wgmalabama (The government murdered Robert LaVoy Finicum - what makes you think you are not next)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

The only reason why the lame idiots in the media are telling the truth now vs. a few days before the election is to motivate Dems to get out and vote and get our side feeling confident.

Bottom line ... ignore these polls. I mean, read them and laugh of course, but assume the absolute worst case scenario and that your vote is absolutely critical to keep things going in our direction.

This election can break the Democrat’s back into two parties ... and that is not hyperbole! :-) If the Dems get throttled, and there is a significant chance of that happening, you’re going to see the “Socialist Democrats” split and form their own party (there wouldn’t be a better time for them to split and seize control of the left coast + parts of NE).


17 posted on 10/15/2018 5:12:21 PM PDT by edh
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To: edh

Sorry ... meant complacent, not confident :-).


18 posted on 10/15/2018 5:13:28 PM PDT by edh
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Who? @FloridaGuy is some magician with 13 tweets on his account.


19 posted on 10/15/2018 5:16:12 PM PDT by franklog
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To: 11th_VA
Even bogus polls are starting very early to tell why their polls are wrong. This type of adjustment or truth never happens until the last week to week and half.

It must be very bad for Dems out there if they are starting this early making corrections to expectations.

20 posted on 10/15/2018 5:32:00 PM PDT by Lady Heron
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