Posted on 10/19/2018 4:01:51 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
Could Republicans do the unthinkable on November 6th and keep a majority in the House? Politico’s Rachel Bade calls it “unlikely,” but not impossible. Bade hears from Republicans and “even a few Democrats” that the political winds have shifted enough this month that it might result in a slight GOP majority once all the votes have been counted.
....Just about every poll predicts it won’t happen: Suburban voters are too fed up with Donald Trump, and Democrats too awash in cash, for Nancy Pelosi’s party not to seize the House on Nov. 6.
And yet House Republicans — and privately, even a few Democrats — say the GOP could still hang on, if only by a few seats. The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has given GOP voters a badly needed enthusiasm boost, they argue, and several races seen as unwinnable just weeks ago are suddenly back within reach for Republicans.
Democrats, meanwhile, have retreated from several battlegrounds once considered prime targets. They’ve also deserted a Democratic-controlled open seat in Minnesota, creating a new, rare pickup opportunity for Republicans in a cycle where they’ve consistently been on defense.....
“Unlikely” seems right if one watches the polling. At FiveThirtyEight, the forecast gives the GOP a 1-in-6 chance of holding the majority, which might be slightly better than unlikely, but not by a lot. Thanks to the disparity between urban centers and everywhere else, Democrats have an advantage in the overall popular vote but Republicans have one in distribution. By their calculation, Democrats have to win the national popular vote by 5.5 points in order to win 218 or more seats in the House.
So what does the polling tell us? Right now, the RCP average Democratic lead is 7.6%. It’s close enough that it the MoE could pull it below the line needed for the gavel. Plus, as Bade notes, Democrats are noticing that the GOP are rebounding in specific races they thought they had locked up:
...Democrats are also taking money from the race to unseat GOP Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, who, Republicans say, has a healthy lead. That came just days after Democrats pulled out of Hispanic-populated districts represented by Rep. David Valadao in central California and Rep. Will Hurd along the Texas border. And they’ve withdrawn $800,000 in planned ads from Rep. Vern Buchanan’s Florida district, where the Democratic challenger, David Shapiro, trails the incumbent....
They may be running into trouble in Minnesota, where Pete Stauber looks set to flip Rick Nolan’s Democratic seat in the Iron Range. Republicans might also be in trouble in MN-02 where incumbent Jason Lewis has trailed in some polls, and where Democrats win more state legislative seats of late, so it could be a trade. But a trade doesn’t help Democrats take over the House majority, either.
The wild card in this is the Kavanaugh Effect. How many Republican voters who were complacent without Donald Trump on the ballot have now been galvanized by that debacle? How many has Trump himself galvanized in his barnstorming over the last few weeks? The polling mainly missed thesurge of marginally attached voters that turned up in 2016, and may be missing it again now. Add that to the massive fundraising and organizing advantage the RNC has over the DNC, and we could be in for a surprise on Election Night.
Not that I’d bet that way, but it’s definitely possible. And maybe even somewhere north of unlikely.
The same group that predicted President Hillary would win with less than a 5% chance of Trump pulling a miracle.
They’re somewhat chastened by their 2016 experience, but cling to faith in the new, improved Democrat vote manufactury.
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GOP will do way more than hold on; they will definitely add seats.
That would be shocking.
We’re picking up seats.
I hope so, but after the PA Supreme Court giving the Democrats several seats due to their unilateral redistricting that may be harder than normal.
It is starting to dawn on them. They are at the oceans edge, watching the water outflow and wondering what that means.
Not might but will. The leftist backtrack begins.
I hope so, but after the PA Supreme Court giving the Democrats several seats due to their unilateral redistricting that may be harder than normal.
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Exactly. Some people are forgetting about pro dem redistricting.
We’ll lose seats in the house for sure, but will the loses equal a dem majority? It’s going to be an interesting night.
Yeah, I think people forget at how vulnerable republicans in the NE are, especially after that partisan decision by the SC.
The 2016 experience did not just fade back into the woodwork, you know. The spirit is still alive, fanned into open blaze with the vile and underhanded attack on Brett Kavanaugh, and the blatant doubling-down by Elizabeth Warren of her lie about Native American ancestry only added fuel to the fire.
Besides, Herself said the Republicans were not deserving of any civility, which was a statement designed to support Maxine Waters, but is coming back, to bite Herself in her own ample gluteus maximus, right along with the “basket of deplorables” tag Herself put on the Republican voters and others who supported Trump in 2016.
I love it when the Democrat-Socialists all take aim at their own feet and so seldom miss.
I’ll throw in my lot with the “we’re picking up seats” crowd. What are the Dimms running on? It’s not 2006 or 1974. If anyone but Trump were president, I’d say we’ll be lucky to keep the House. We’ll see. I’m walking over broken glass to vote for any relatively pro-MAGA organism.
There is always a 1/1024 or 0.09765625% probability that it might not happen.
They all could not help themselves...they are talking like they have already won the House and the real people behind the masks are coming out.
They have written a lot of checks to their voters that they may not be able to cash. The “crazy” wing of the party will burn down a few cities, but the rest of the faithful will be so disappointed they will reach for the extra large bottle of valium. It could the end of the party as we know it.
Money didn’t help Hillary or Jeb.
“six months of “Dems gonna win big,” one week of “waitaminute”” - from LS
Here in OH, the Republicans finally have a message. Instill fear of mobs and the future if dems get in power.
"He can't win. There is not one scenario where he comes out on top. He has absolutely no path to 270."
People make judgements and establish their beliefs based on the information they read, see and hear.
The Kav effect is Finally easy enough for most 10 year olds.
THE MEDIA IS NOTHiNG BUT a BUNCH of LIARS and PROPAGANDISTS
The cat (Cougar) is out of the bag
The Dems are completely bankrupt of anything based on civility, common sense or truth.
And the last thing they are capable of doing is governing others fairly and effectively.
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