Posted on 10/21/2018 7:15:39 PM PDT by Ravi
See Comments if interested...
D-23,990 (43.5%) R-21,496 (39.0%)
2016 ALL FORMS OF EARLY VOTING FIRST WEEK:
D-167,913 (43.7%) R-140,792 (36.6%)
2012 ALL FORMS OF EARLY VOTING FIRST WEEK:
D-162,237 (45.3%) R-133,585 (37.3%)
Remember in 2016, Clinton won 47.9% to 45.5% or by about 27,000 votes. Approximately 1.12 million total votes that year.
In 2012, Heller won 45.87% to 44.71% or by about 11,600 votes. Approximately 1 million votes total that year.
After ONE single solitary day of early/absentee voting in NV, we already have 70,000 votes. D barely leads R especially compared to presidential years 2016 and 2012 when D's had a much bigger advantage. Clinton barely won 2016 and Heller barely won 2012 even with a significant 1st week disadvantage in 2012. He therefore starts 2018 early voting in a much better position compared to 2012.
70,000 votes as I mentioned earlier are in after one single solitary day (10/20) this year which is a ginormous number! In the first day of early voting 2016, there were fewer votes (62,000) than this year! How is that even possible? Incredible.
Also for the first day of 2012 early/absentee voting, there were 56,000 votes which again is less than the first day this year.
2018 is definitely shaping up to be if not quite presidential level turnout pretty darn close. We are way past any sort of mid-term turnout. With that said, Heller STARTS (again starts) at a better point than Trump in 2016 and Heller himself in 2012. Obviously Heller has an advantage relative to Trump with Indies. Trump had a slightly better first week than Heller did in 2012 but still lost by a small amount.
Comments appreciated!
I hope this information is clear. Any thoughts gentleman?
Here is what I wrote to Larry Schweikart on twitter earlier today:
I don’t know if the proper comparison of the Nevada vote should be 2018 vs. 2014. In 2014, there was no Senate election, the only competitive House race was the newly-created 4th Congressional District, and the GOP incumbent governor was leading his opponent by 20-25 points.
After looking at the Week 1 turnouts of the 2014, 2016, and 2018 General Elections, it looks like a better comparison would be 2018 vs. 2016.
In comparing 2018 vs. 2016, I’m taking out Esmeralda, Lander, Lyon, Mineral, Nye, and Pershing Counties right now, since the 2018 numbers do not include those counties yet. This way, I can attempt to compare apples to apples as close as possible.
I’m also looking at the party breakdown between Day 1 of the 2018 midterm early voting vs. Week 1 of the 2016 early voting. I could not find the party breakdown of each day of early voting in the 2016 General Election early voting, so this is the best I could do.
In 2018, the total votes from in-person early voting and absent/mailing ballots are 55,445 ballots on October 20th (First Day of early voting). The party breakdown is 43.6% D, 38.95% R, and 17.45% I.
In 2016, the total votes (not including the six aforementioned counties) from in-person early voting and absent/mailing ballots are 55,445 ballots on the First Week (October 22-28) is 368,645. The party breakdown is 44.2% D, 35.5% R, and 19.47% I.
Comparing 2018 (Day 1) to 2016 (Week 1) yields a percentage shift of -0.6% for the Democrats, +3.45% for the Republicans, and -2.02% for Other.
Now, this is WAY too early to make any definite projections, since we don’t know what the daily party breakdown of the early voting was in 2016. We still need data from the 6 counties which haven’t reported yet. We also need the data from the rest of the 1st Week of 2018.
it follows a pattern mentioned by LS around the country. republican early voting is up and democrat early voting is down.
If its close, Elko will decide.
Otherwise it comes down to Clark, the principal Rat stronghold in NV.
[After ONE single solitary day of early/absentee voting in NV, we already have 70,000 votes]
Great data from Nevada - looks like the GOP has finally built a turnout machine.
Yes precisely. Still early but better than 2012 and 2016.
Rats took over the statehouse in 2016, won the open US Senate seat and Her Thighness carried the state.
Without LV, NV would be reliably Red.
LV - Union workers I suppose support the RATs
A lot of Ds will be voting for Republicans. Takes effort to change party registration when it rarely makes a difference in who you vote for.
Total votes should be about 60,000 (added an extra 10,000 sorry). Also need to update D and R and I (changed again since last I looked). Sorry for the error.
D-26,333 (43.6%)
R-23,359 (38.7%)
I-10,474 (17.4%)
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950
Still like where this is going in relation to 2012 and 2016.
Thanks for all the info. Much appreciated.
Another thing - How many of those sensible D’s are going to vote against the party for the sake of peace and civility? How many R’s will vote for the ANTIFA party?
We could have a rather defining election on Nov 6
A lot of mischief can happen between 10/20 and the final count after 11/6
Crooked won Nevada by 27,000 and early voting by 46,000. If it stays this close we are looking good with high turnout Election Day
With early voting finished and tallied, registered Democrats in Nevada have taken a 46,000-vote lead over Republican voters heading into Election Day.
The lead is just a hair short of the 48,000-vote lead Democrats took into Election Day 2012. Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney by 7 points statewide that year en route to winning his second term as president.
Great info. Thanks.
Jon Ralston is reporting that the Dems are killing it in Washoe County (Reno) though. GOP has a slight registration edge but Dems have won both early voting days by double digits.
Repubs cant afford to get swamped in Washoe. Actually repubs will need to win Washoe in order to offset losses in Clark.
Hopefully Repubs will pick it up in Washoe!
Dems always vote early, everyone get out and vote
SEIU Voter fraud
Muy bueno.
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