Momentum: Early voting, absentee numbers favor Republicans (Alaska)

Alaska Dispatch ^ | 10/24/2018 | Suzanne Downing

[Ravi]

Election nerds like numbers. They love charts, spreadsheets, tabs, data, and models.

This is a numbers story for the election nerds in all of us, even the mathematically challenged. It’s about who asked for absentee ballots and who turned out to vote early, easy data points from which even Common Core math survivors can glean conclusions:

The first day of early voting in 2014 saw 1,698 people turn out to cast their ballot at an early voting location.

It was an exciting year with a U.S. Senate race that featured Dan Sullivan challenging Sen. Mark Begich.

Alaska also had the strangely formed ticket of Bill Walker and Byron Mallott challenging Gov. Sean Parnell and the other Dan Sullivan. That was exciting.

There was also Don Young’s congressional seat, as there is every two years.

In other words, the 2014 midterm election was a full and an exciting ballot.

Yet the first-day vote total was just under 1,700.

This year, it could be argued that the election is not as exciting — a governor’s race and the U.S. House race, and the usual state House and Senate seats. Don Young is again up for re-election. There’s a ballot initiative to lock up resources.

But look at the numbers: 3,280 people turned out to vote on Monday, the first day of voting.

That’s nearly double the number who turned out on the same day in 2014.

[Ravi]

This is one of the best-written early voting articles I have come across. Succinct, comparisons to 2014 and to the point. This is how all these early voting articles should be framed.

Well done Ms. Downing..

TL.DR Like everywhere else, Reps doing better in Alaska than Dems (with this comparison being 2014)

I know the Indy Gov dropped out but it looks like Dunleavy (R) is still favored

[KC_Lion]

Alaska Ping.

[Ravi]

Alaska early vote info...

[goldstategop]

Don Young’s at large seat is safe.

Rs like to pick up governorship and increase their hold on the statehouse.

[Ravi]

More from article:

TAKEAWAY 2: BALLOTS CAST ON DAY 1 OF VOTING

Of the 3,280 ballots cast on Monday, Oct. 22, the Republicans and conservative voters are favored:

944 – Republican (conservative)
915 – Undeclared (these voters lean conservative)
716 – Non-Partisan (these voters are heavily liberal)
631 – Democrat (liberal)
52 – AIP (conservatives)
13 – Libertarians (conservatives)
8 – Green (liberals)
TAKEAWAY 3: ABSENTEE NUMBERS SUPPORT REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES

In 2014, immediately after Labor Day, some 2,453 Democrats requested absentee ballots, while 7,500 Republicans requested absentee ballots.

This year, in the same September snapshot, only 1,006 Democrats and 7,425 Republicans requested absentee ballots.

Democrats lost more than half of their absentee ballot program in four years, while Republicans remained essentially flat.

By Oct. 8, in 2014, Democrat voters had requested 4,955 absentee ballots.

This year, by Oct. 8, Democrats had only requested 2,252. Again — their absentee ballot efforts collapsed.

Republicans, in the same October snapshot, had requested 9,696 in 2014.

This year, by Oct. 9, Republicans had requested 9,537 absentee ballots.

It’s too late for Democrats to make up the lost ground on the absentee voter front. They don’t have the manpower or enough time on the calendar to get absentee ballots out to people, and to get them returned in time. They’ll have to focus on getting out the vote by employing their usual methods.

One robin does not a spring make for Republicans, but early voting and absentee voting numbers look good for their candidates.

[fortheDeclaration]

Alaska has some weird politics!

[Ravi]

It does right.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Great article. Thanks.

Coincidentally, I was sitting on the Alaska Survey Research facebook page (https://www.facebook.com/alaskasurvey/) yesterday. I knew they were coming out with a new poll. Maybe the first since the Gov dropped out. So the pollster posted a “contest” there, asking people to submit their prediction for the poll results. Then the pollster named the “winners” - those closest to the actual poll results. I then looked up the winner’s predictions and had a good idea what the poll results would be.

So before the numbers were officially released, I went on PredictIt and put more money on Dunleavy.

The poll numbers were released about 10-15 minutes later. It confirmed what we already know. Dunleavy ahead by 5-6 points.

[BerryDingle]

That Murkowski is mentally disturbed (something probably did happen to her in the past) and Alaskans should help her by voting her out whenever the opportunity arises.

[faithhopecharity]

please please can we retire Murkowski!? please?

[Magnum44]

Isn’t Alaska the only state where you can be conservative and still collect a check from the state?

[Jet Jaguar]

Bump

[SENTINEL]

Please allow me to correct you. We in Alaska do not individually own subsurface mineral rights on our own property. The constitution put the state government in charge of selling subsurface minerals such as oil and gold, investing those funds, and splitting the interest from those funds between goverment and shareholders...we the people. The annual PFD checks are no more welfare than a dividend check from Merrill Lynch. Our oil, our money, our interest, our dividend.

[Magnum44]

Did I say it was welfare? What are you correcting? Some folks here need a sense of humor. I have no problem that you get to collect something for mineral rights. You deserve it for spending half the year in near darkness and freezing temperatures.

My comment was more a slam at welfare recipients in the remainder lower 48 and the sunny ‘paradise’ Hawaiian islands, who vote almost exclusively demoncrat. That should have been obvious. If you have to have it explained, it’s no longer funny.