Skip to comments.Larry Schweikart on Bombs, Polls, and Red Waves
Posted on 10/25/2018 8:50:44 AM PDT by Lazamataz
1) It's obvious from the fact that these so-called "bombs" are hoax devices never intended to explode; that they were 'delivered' to try to keep the "bomb" story alive that this is the work of a DemoKKKrat operative.
2) A free press, no blinded by hate for President Trump would see this in seconds.
3) The American people see it. Far from an "OMG!" moment, this has all the earmarks of an "Are you serious?" moment for the public.
4) Trump defused this (pun intended) with his remarks.
5) That means that the reaction is likely to be exactly the opposite of what the DemoKKKrat strategists hoped.
6) No one has forgotten the invasion force on our southern border.
7) No one can escape the benefits of the growing economy.
8) No one can ignore the ass-kicking the DemoKKKrats are taking in the early and absentee voting.
9) I explained two days ago in my http://www.bigleaguepolitics.com article that the very creation of the DemoKKKrats--early voting--designed to get minorities to the polls has backfired.
10) Instead, it made it impossible for stupid DemoKKKrat tricks like this one to have any meaningful impact. There can no longer BE an 'October Surprise' because more than half the voters have already voted and won't be affected.
11) This is akin to how DemoKKKrats changed their own rules in 1970 after Nixon beat them so that they could nominate a more radical candidate than the 1968 loser Hubie Humphrey.
12) They did. They got George ("The Mad Bomber") McGovern who campaigned on legalized pot and withdrawal from Vietnam. OR to paraphrase William McKinley who campaigned on "a chicken in every pot," McGovern favored "pot in every chicken!"
13) But I digress. The DemoKKKrats expanded the power of the "people" and got squished because of it, so they changed rules again to give power back the superdelegates. This kept their elites in power until Cankles, when she manipulated the superdelegate system to crush Dinobernie.
14) Now we have the early voting backfire.
15) Rs are leading in AZ, FL, GA, TN, MT, and though trailing in NV, are so far ahead of their 2016 pace that it is looking like an R landslide on election day there.
Ditto IA, where Ds always dominate absentee voting, then are swamped on election day.
In OH, they are getting neither: they are trailing absentee/early (for now) and get blown out on ED.
16) So with the #HoaxBombs the DemoKKKrats now try again to change the narrative from their failed early voting scheme.
17) Reminder that you still see whackadoodle polls showing, say, Gillum's Island, ahead. Just based on the #s, that's impossible. There is no way FL Rs lead in these metrics and yet trail in the actual races. More than likely in FL, you have horrible polling in the hurricane affected red areas driving down R numbers; you have the "Wilder effect" of people unwilling to say they won't vote for the black guy ; & you have flat out bad polling, which is to say, polling. (@PPDNews ALWAYS excepted from comments about polling, and Baris three weeks ago had Scott up and DeSantis barely down.)
19) You might say, "Well, even Fox has some bad polls for Rs." Yep. Republicans have bad pollsters too
20) I'm convinced one reason R pollsters are almost as bad as the Ds is that they want to prove themselves "legitimate," & therefore do not want to be far off the "mainstream" of polling.
Look at how they ostracize Rasmussen and @PPDNews
21) And most R pollsters are similar in their biases to Ds in despising Trump and thinking you are all smelly hillbillies.
22) So that's another reason I don't do polls.
23) To repeat--for "faith comes by hearing"--polls are unreliable samples of opinions of future events.
24) Votes are reliable, immutable evidence of past ACTIONS.
25) Even if honest and trustworthy, a poll can be 100% well done today and be 100% wrong tomorrow based on the fact that PEOPLE CHANGE THEIR MINDS.
26) So I remain confident in what the #s are telling us:
Rs will gain net 4-7 senate seats and hold the House by 5 or so seats.
This can change, but I think ONLY in the Republicans' direction.
But #HoaxBombs won't affect the election negatively for Rs.
Exceptional analysis. I kinda 'felt' these various points, but he gave voice to what I used emotion, not reason, to conclude.
I appreciate him crystallizing my hunches and feelings into a valid and reasoned essay. I will Xpost to Free Republic.
Maybe the Robert DeNiro “bomb” was taking it a bit far. Libtards always overplay their hand.
24) Votes are reliable, immutable evidence of past ACTIONS.
That is only true if we have honest elections untainted by fraud and corruption. I believe the estimates that suggest 2% to 3% of the vote is fraudulent, enough to change the outcome in many swing elections.
May be his publicist insisted.
It must be frustrating for the left to have employed all their usual dirty tricks and have them all fizzle against the president and us. Its desperation time for them. Once they lost in the Kavanaugh hearings I knew they would start resorting to desperate measures!
LS is a Free Republic treasure. I value his comments highly and I have for many years.
Thanks for the X Post. I check his twitter feed (@LarrySchweikart) many times a day for updates.
Thanks! It was definitely worth the read. Gotta like that he’s willing to go on the record with predictions outside the norm. He is certainly persuasive.
Bump for LS.
Appreciate you both!
Outstanding! Thank you!
Thanks for posting this Laz.
Thanks for posting.
I can’t wait until election night results.
I do think the R’s will win both the House and the Senate.
Are we going to keep the Governor’s seat in Iowa and Kansas? I want to believe the vulnerability there is just demoralization propaganda.
IIRC, LS’ information was almost perfect leading up to Election Day 2016.
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