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Larry Schweikart on Bombs, Polls, and Red Waves
Twitter ^ | 10/25/2018 | By Larry Schweikart

Posted on 10/25/2018 8:50:44 AM PDT by Lazamataz

1) It's obvious from the fact that these so-called "bombs" are hoax devices never intended to explode; that they were 'delivered' to try to keep the "bomb" story alive that this is the work of a DemoKKKrat operative.

2) A free press, no blinded by hate for President Trump would see this in seconds.

3) The American people see it. Far from an "OMG!" moment, this has all the earmarks of an "Are you serious?" moment for the public.

4) Trump defused this (pun intended) with his remarks.

5) That means that the reaction is likely to be exactly the opposite of what the DemoKKKrat strategists hoped.

6) No one has forgotten the invasion force on our southern border.

7) No one can escape the benefits of the growing economy.

8) No one can ignore the ass-kicking the DemoKKKrats are taking in the early and absentee voting.

9) I explained two days ago in my http://www.bigleaguepolitics.com article that the very creation of the DemoKKKrats--early voting--designed to get minorities to the polls has backfired.

10) Instead, it made it impossible for stupid DemoKKKrat tricks like this one to have any meaningful impact. There can no longer BE an 'October Surprise' because more than half the voters have already voted and won't be affected.

11) This is akin to how DemoKKKrats changed their own rules in 1970 after Nixon beat them so that they could nominate a more radical candidate than the 1968 loser Hubie Humphrey.

12) They did. They got George ("The Mad Bomber") McGovern who campaigned on legalized pot and withdrawal from Vietnam. OR to paraphrase William McKinley who campaigned on "a chicken in every pot," McGovern favored "pot in every chicken!"

13) But I digress. The DemoKKKrats expanded the power of the "people" and got squished because of it, so they changed rules again to give power back the superdelegates. This kept their elites in power until Cankles, when she manipulated the superdelegate system to crush Dinobernie.

14) Now we have the early voting backfire.

15) Rs are leading in AZ, FL, GA, TN, MT, and though trailing in NV, are so far ahead of their 2016 pace that it is looking like an R landslide on election day there.

Ditto IA, where Ds always dominate absentee voting, then are swamped on election day.

In OH, they are getting neither: they are trailing absentee/early (for now) and get blown out on ED.

16) So with the #HoaxBombs the DemoKKKrats now try again to change the narrative from their failed early voting scheme.

17) Reminder that you still see whackadoodle polls showing, say, Gillum's Island, ahead. Just based on the #s, that's impossible. There is no way FL Rs lead in these metrics and yet trail in the actual races. More than likely in FL, you have horrible polling in the hurricane affected red areas driving down R numbers; you have the "Wilder effect" of people unwilling to say they won't vote for the black guy ; & you have flat out bad polling, which is to say, polling. (@PPDNews ALWAYS excepted from comments about polling, and Baris three weeks ago had Scott up and DeSantis barely down.)

19) You might say, "Well, even Fox has some bad polls for Rs." Yep. Republicans have bad pollsters too

20) I'm convinced one reason R pollsters are almost as bad as the Ds is that they want to prove themselves "legitimate," & therefore do not want to be far off the "mainstream" of polling.

Look at how they ostracize Rasmussen and @PPDNews

21) And most R pollsters are similar in their biases to Ds in despising Trump and thinking you are all smelly hillbillies.

22) So that's another reason I don't do polls.

23) To repeat--for "faith comes by hearing"--polls are unreliable samples of opinions of future events.

24) Votes are reliable, immutable evidence of past ACTIONS.

25) Even if honest and trustworthy, a poll can be 100% well done today and be 100% wrong tomorrow based on the fact that PEOPLE CHANGE THEIR MINDS.

26) So I remain confident in what the #s are telling us:

Rs will gain net 4-7 senate seats and hold the House by 5 or so seats.

This can change, but I think ONLY in the Republicans' direction.

But #HoaxBombs won't affect the election negatively for Rs.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2018midterms; blowhard; election; ls
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This is a thread by Larry Schweikart, LS on Free Republic, over on Twitter.

Exceptional analysis. I kinda 'felt' these various points, but he gave voice to what I used emotion, not reason, to conclude.

I appreciate him crystallizing my hunches and feelings into a valid and reasoned essay. I will Xpost to Free Republic.

1 posted on 10/25/2018 8:50:44 AM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz

Maybe the Robert DeNiro “bomb” was taking it a bit far. Libtards always overplay their hand.


2 posted on 10/25/2018 8:52:58 AM PDT by Sans-Culotte (Time to get the US out of the UN and the UN out of the US!)
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To: Lazamataz

bttt


3 posted on 10/25/2018 8:55:13 AM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either satire or opinion. Or both.)
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To: Sans-Culotte
Rodham-False-Flag3
4 posted on 10/25/2018 8:56:27 AM PDT by timestax
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To: LS

Ping


5 posted on 10/25/2018 8:57:30 AM PDT by Lazamataz (The News Misleadia will be held accountable for their lies.....on the eleventy-first of Nevervember.)
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To: Lazamataz
Good article, but I take exception to #24:

24) Votes are reliable, immutable evidence of past ACTIONS.

That is only true if we have honest elections untainted by fraud and corruption. I believe the estimates that suggest 2% to 3% of the vote is fraudulent, enough to change the outcome in many swing elections.

6 posted on 10/25/2018 8:58:08 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: Sans-Culotte

DeNiro?

May be his publicist insisted.


7 posted on 10/25/2018 8:58:13 AM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either satire or opinion. Or both.)
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To: Lazamataz

It must be frustrating for the left to have employed all their usual dirty tricks and have them all fizzle against the president and us. It’s desperation time for them. Once they lost in the Kavanaugh hearings I knew they would start resorting to desperate measures!


8 posted on 10/25/2018 8:58:17 AM PDT by dowcaet
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To: Lazamataz; LS

LS is a Free Republic treasure. I value his comments highly and I have for many years.

Thanks for the X Post. I check his twitter feed (@LarrySchweikart) many times a day for updates.


9 posted on 10/25/2018 9:01:09 AM PDT by plushaye (Kat Kerr Presidential Prophecy: Trump (2 terms), Pence (2 terms), Pence's VP (2 terms))
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To: Lazamataz

Good post.


10 posted on 10/25/2018 9:01:31 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Lazamataz

Thanks! It was definitely worth the read. Gotta like that he’s willing to go on the record with predictions outside the norm. He is certainly persuasive.


11 posted on 10/25/2018 9:02:54 AM PDT by be-baw (still seeking...)
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To: Lazamataz

Bump for LS.


12 posted on 10/25/2018 9:04:02 AM PDT by Enterprise
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To: plushaye

Agree!


13 posted on 10/25/2018 9:04:27 AM PDT by Enterprise
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To: Lazamataz; LS

Appreciate you both!


14 posted on 10/25/2018 9:05:48 AM PDT by jazusamo (Have You Donated to Keep Free Republic Up and Running?)
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To: Lazamataz; LS

Outstanding! Thank you!


15 posted on 10/25/2018 9:11:13 AM PDT by laplata (The Left/Progressives have diseased minds.)
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To: Lazamataz

Thanks for posting this Laz.


16 posted on 10/25/2018 9:14:44 AM PDT by KC Burke (If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
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To: Lazamataz

Thanks for posting.

I can’t wait until election night results.

I do think the R’s will win both the House and the Senate.


17 posted on 10/25/2018 9:19:32 AM PDT by hsmomx3
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To: Lazamataz; LS

Bttt.

5.56mm


18 posted on 10/25/2018 9:19:58 AM PDT by M Kehoe (DRAIN THE SWAMP!)
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To: Lazamataz

Are we going to keep the Governor’s seat in Iowa and Kansas? I want to believe the vulnerability there is just demoralization propaganda.


19 posted on 10/25/2018 9:21:00 AM PDT by Shadow44
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To: Lazamataz

IIRC, LS’ information was almost perfect leading up to Election Day 2016.


20 posted on 10/25/2018 9:21:55 AM PDT by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man, a subject.")
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