Skip to comments.Virginia Poll: Rep. Bart Struggles to Put Away Dem Spanberger
Posted on 10/30/2018 8:20:26 AM PDT by beejaa
Voter enthusiasm might be the difference in Virginia's 7th Congressional District race between GOP incumbent Dave Brat and surging Democrat Abigail Spanberger, according to the latest poll from The Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.
The race is a statistical dead heat with Spanberger holding a 1-point edge on Rep. Brat 46-45 among likely voters, which is well within the poll's plus or minus 4.2 percentage point margin of error. Among the most committed voters, Spanberger's lead widens to 3 points 48-45 percent, albeit still within the margin.
Voter turnout will decide this race and Democrats are holding that edge in this poll. There is a 16-point enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, as just 62 percent of the GOP is "very enthusiastic" about voting compared to 78 percent of Democrats who are...
Virginia's 7th Congressional District has trended away from Republicans, as President Trump won the district by 6.5-point margin in 2016, while Mitt Romney held a double-digit edge in 2012 at 10.5 points.
The Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University poll was conducted Oct. 18-27 among 871 registered voters who have voted in at least two of the past four elections or were new voters to Virginia in 2017.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
“...the latest poll from The Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.”
Who? Never heard of them. Has anyone else? Do they have a worthy track record in polling?
“Or were new voters in 2017.” That sounds real accurate.
I live in Brat’s district, I am seeing a lot of Brat signs go up in the last two weeks. I think Brat wins by 3-5 percent on election day.
A court ordered the VA 7th been redrawn so the district is very different from the district map in 2012. All the GOP leading areas east of I-95 were removed.
Christopher Newport University has been doing political polling for VA races for years but I've never heard of the Judy Ford Wason group. Ever.
CNU's polling is about as biased as every other outfit out there. BUT...I was in the Richmond area most of last week and heard a bunch of Spanberger ads. They were very, very good. She comes across as a middle of the road, sympathetic patriot. Brat needs a big turnout.
Okay, this is from another article from the Sept. 25 “Washington Post:”
“Spanberger, a former CIA officer and political newcomer, leads Brat 47 percent to 42 percent among all potential voters, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday. Two percent favor Libertarian Joe Walton, and 9 percent are undecided.
“Spanbergers lead shrinks when the poll applies two different models to the race in Virginias 7th Congressional District, a mix of suburban and rural territory in the central part of the state that stretches from Culpeper to Nottoway County.
“The candidates are tied at 47 percent when the survey assumes turnout will follow historical norms for midterm elections. Spanberger leads 48 percent to 45 percent a statistically insignificant margin when the model projects a Democratic surge.
“The poll finds Spanberger with a hefty advantage in the Richmond suburbs, where President Trumps sagging popularity is thought to be a drag on the Republicans. Spanberger leads Brat 58 percent to 30 percent in Henrico County, where Trump was soundly defeated in 2016. She leads 50 percent to 35 percent in Chesterfield County, which Trump narrowly won.
“But Brat leads in rural areas, where Trump remains popular, by a margin of 57 percent to 35 percent.
This is a tale of two districts, said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. ‘The Richmond suburbs that backed Clinton in 2016 support Spanberger, while the Trump strongholds are firmly behind Brat. The reason this race is so close right now is because there are more voters in the suburban areas...’”
I think Brat will bring it home. I have heard some great Brat ads over the past two weeks. My suspicion is that turnout will be more tilted to older voters over yutes, which helps Brat.
What about Rep. Bart?
CNU is another leftist university and I doubt the Center used good statistics to create the poll.
Little poll demons be busy one week out. Desperate to keep Rs home.
Do they have a worthy track record in polling?
Sounds like a class project at the university.
Now that doesn’t make them right/wrong.
“The poll finds Spanberger with a hefty advantage in the Richmond suburbs, where President Trumps sagging popularity is thought to be a drag on the Republicans.”
I’m seeing that in a number of races across the country including two in my home state of Minnesota, the 2nd CD and 3rd CD.
The Dems have been putting a lot of effort into these normally GOP suburban districts. Sadly enough, Pelosi doesn’t need a blue wave on election night in order to become Speaker again.
All the Dems need is to do well in these suburban races.
CNU (among the university polls in Virginia) consistently over-samples Democrats, with predictable results. Historicaly, the Hampton University poll has been the most reliable, although they really blew it on the governor’s race last year, showing Ed Gillespie with a significant lead only two weeks before the election. He lost to Democrat Ralph Northam in a blowout.
How can you not beat somebody named “Spamburger”?
Yes, you are correct! We are to ignore the early voting and believe the lying polls.
She isn’t going to flip 23 of them! Stop talking nonsense! To flip 23 and to hold 13 of their own which are toss up would take a Blue wave, which isn’t coming. And the GOP has the highest favorability rating regarding the economy in it’s history. That is what suburban people are looking for.
This is a perfect district to apply the new found increasing support from African Americans and Hispanic Americans for Trump/ Republicans.
Make no mistake, President Donald Trump is the real Republican candidate in each race.
A California Public Policy Institute poll of 11 Battleground Congressional districts in California found that by 49/45 Hispanics want a Republican House.
But this district is only 7% Hispanic you say, of course but that’s still a nice little boost.
Nevertheless, the bigger boost comes from African Americans, yes African Americans whose approval of President Trump has jumped 11 points in one month.
In next door Maryland,where the White Republican incumbent Governor is crushing a Black former head of the NAACP; and he is doing so with 21% of Black voter support.
Bites this big into Democrat bases lead to incumbent Republican victories, and it will in Virginia 7.
This is correct. I was a part of the wave the voted Brat in and Cantor out in 2014. Then was redistricted into the 1st, Rob wittman for 2016.
CNU is historically liberally biased.
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