The Tragedy of Saudi Arabia's War

The New York Times ^ | 10/26/18 | Declan Walsh, Tyler Hicks

[Pining_4_TX]

One hope for Yemenis is that the international fallout from the death of the Saudi dissident, Jamal Khashoggi, which has damaged Prince Mohammed’s international standing, might force him to relent in his unyielding prosecution of the war.

Peter Salisbury, a Yemen specialist at Chatham House, said that was unlikely.

“I think the Saudis have learned what they can get away with in Yemen — that western tolerance for pretty bad behavior is quite high,” he said. “If the Khashoggi murder tells us anything, it’s just how reluctant people are to rein the Saudis in.”

[marron]

I get that war is hell. No one has to convince us of that.

The war has been presented as a contest between the “moderate” Saudis and Iran, with the Houthis as supposedly Iran’s proxies. To make a fair judgement of the rightness or wrongness of the war, we need to know how fair that of an analysis that is, and what are the likely results of Houthi rule in Yemen. Versus, of course, the likely rule of the Saudis’ proxies in Yemen.

[RitchieAprile]

Iranian missiles on the Arabian peninsula targeting tanker traffic in the Arabian Sea might be one outcome of Houthi rule.

[Truthoverpower]

Islam is war
Islam is rape
Islam is suffering
Islamis sñavery
Www.prophetofdoom.net

[drop 50 and fire for effect]

Yemen is becoming an albatross for the Saudis. Gamal Abdel Nasser and Egypt found this out the hard way in the 1960s. Egypt had over 70,000 soldiers deployed in Yemen and stuck in a stalemate from 1962-1967.

They missed those soldiers (and the 26,000 casualties from 1962-67) badly during the 1967 Six Day War.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Yemen_Civil_War

[Cheesehead in Texas]

The likely result of Houthi rule in Yemen is 1)continued and protracted civil war in Yemen, 2)continued efforts by KSA to eradicate their archenemy Iran’s Houthi proxies and too bad about the collateral damage, and 3)choking off oil supplies from the Arabian peninsula at the Arabian Gulf/Straits of Hormuz (Iran) and at the Red Sea at Hudaida (Yemen).

This is not about moderate political views. It is about KSA being able to deliver oil on the world market and KSA’s oil is Iran’s immediate target. Once Iran controls the oil they can overthrow the government of KSA. Once they do that, they can control Mecca and once they control Mecca they control the world’s Muslims. Israel and Europe are secondary targets after the oil.

The Houthis are a tiny, Shiite minority(~2%), in a majority Sunni population. They were easily co-opted by Iran, first with persecuted minority status, then with funding, food, supplies and weapons. Yemen is an astonishingly poor country whose resources are not enough to support its own people. Outside funding can sway a lot of minds and influence behavior. Yemen is also a country where allegiance to the tribe is more immediately important to the average Yemeni than whatever the government in Sana’a is doing. The Yemenis blame Iran for this mess, and rightly so, but even before the bombing started, there was no love lost between Yemen and KSA either.

I was in Yemen in 2009 and the Yemenis were complaining then about Iran funding the Houthis and how it was going to cause trouble. How right they were.

[marron]

Thank you. Excellent reply.

[Pining_4_TX]

Thanks for the link. That is such a tangled mess over there.

[SunkenCiv]

The dismantling ofYemen began as part of Obama's Arab Spring, and was brought about by Iranian intervention via recruited proxies. What is Rouhani's FR nick?

[Berosus]

In ancient times Yemen was the richest part of Arabia. The Romans called it “Arabia Felix,” meaning Happy Arabia. Oh, how things have changed!

[BlackVeil]

Good historical background.

[antidisestablishment]

Here's an interesting article on the North Yemen War.

The Proxy of my Proxy

A Yemeni saying that is apropos anywhere and anytime in the Middle East:

“You can’t buy us; you can only rent us for a while”

[Cronos]

The truth is:

• The Houthis are not Iran's proxies -- they are Zayidi Shia, a sub-sect of Shia that are closer to the Sunni Hanafi school than they are to the 12er Shia (Iran-Iraq)
• They were the leading members of the former North Yemen
• when the Saudis tried to take over Yemen, they wanted their man Hadi to win and they also were spreading Wahabbism -- Islamic state and Al Qaeda are active in SOUTH Yemen
• The Sauds are NOT Moderate - they are Wahabbis (the Al Saud and Al-Wahhab family intermarried in the 1800s) and have been instrumental in creating the Islamic state, boko haram, al qaeda, Taliban, Lashkar e toiba, Al Shaba, Abu sayyaff and other Salafi/Wahabbi terrorist groups around the world. They are the cause of 9/11, Bataclan, Beslan, Mumbai 2008, London, etc. They must go
• If the Houthis take over Sanaa they will then want only North Yemen
  
  
  
• South yemen will be a mix of other states.
• No, the Iranis won't put missiles in North Yemen - they don't have the means to send arms that far away and the north Yemenis won't allow them

[marron]

Thanks.

[PapaBear3625]

In ancient times Yemen was the richest part of Arabia. The Romans called it “Arabia Felix,” meaning Happy Arabia. Oh, how things have changed!

If you look at a satellite map, the part of Yemen which faces the Red Sea actually has some green areas, unlike most of the rest of the Arabian peninsula desert.