Almost Heaven? RCP Moves West Virginia To Toss-Up On Election Eve

Hot Air ^ | 6 Nov 2018 | Ed Morrissey

[mandaladon]

If Joe Manchin loses in West Virginia, that will be one mountain-mama of a story. RealClearPolitics now assesses the race as a toss-up, moving it out of the Leans Democrat yesterday as part of its Election Eve final calls. That would be perhaps the most stunning upset of the night, not because of West Virginia’s voting character but because of Manchin’s storied record as a political survivor:

Democratic incumbent senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia is in the fight of his political life, as his race against Republican Patrick Morrisey was changed to “toss up” on the eve of the election.

Manchin added a dozen events leading up to Tuesday, making stops across the state from Beckley to Marlinton to Bridgeport, before concluding with a “Take Me Home” motorcycle ride at his campaign headquarters in Charleston.

RealClearPolitics changed the Senate race on Monday from “lean Democratic” to “toss up” in response to gains made by Morrisey in the polls. Manchin now has just a 5-point advantage over Morrisey going into Election Day, according to the website’s average.

Notice that Manchin never hit 50% in RCP’s average. He’s only been at 50% in one poll since July, that WSAZ poll from three weeks ago. An incumbent like Manchin running consistently below the 50% mark after decades in state politics is usually in serious trouble. And that looks to be the case tonight.

[mandaladon]

Blue Wave fading fast...

[Col Frank Slade]

Toss up = covering their ass.

[MNJohnnie]

If both Manchin (WV) and Nelson (FL) lose, it will be a really bad night for the Ds

[NorthMountain]

I voted FOR Patrick Morrisey.

MAGA!

[mikelets456]

I’m reading heavy polling in most places-—for a midterm, is that bad?

[apillar]

Something’s up in West Virginia, President Trump made a last minute campaign stop here Friday, he wouldn’t have wasted time days before the election if it was a “lost cause”. I’m guessing the internal polling is a LOT closer than the public polls. West Virginia is notoriously hard to poll...

[BRL]

I believe we snag all 5 solid red states...ND MO IN MT and WV.

[Obadiah]

I’m reading heavy polling in most places-—for a midterm, is that bad?

Considering the national mass hysteria over the past two years I would thing that a heavy turnout is to be expected. How that turnout falls when the polls close is the million dollar question.

[StoneRainbow68]

If West Virginia can get rid of Whitey Bulger AND Manchin in one week, that would be cool. lol

[MNJohnnie]

if it is in places Trump won it should be good for us.

[MNJohnnie]

Thank you!

MAGA!

[PermaRag]

Florida & West Virigina are targets #5 and #6 in terms of likelihood of flipping after Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota & Montana.

It’s difficult at this time to realistically picture all 6 going our way, but it’s hardly an impossible outcome either.

Getting any more Rat seats to flip in the Senate (for example Michigan, Ohio etc.) would be icing on the cake, but I’ll be extremely (pleasantly) surprised if that occurs.

Of course we damn well better hold the shaky seats in Arizona and Nevada, not to mention the Rat pipe dream targets of Texas and Tennessee. If we lose one or even both of AZ/NV, which is entirely possible, yet pick up a bunch of others then it’s still an excellent night.

[bort]

Anybody have any turnout reports from WVa?

[Ted Grant]

The trend seems to be our friend.

[mandaladon]

Upset brewing? Another poll suddenly shows Montana as a toss-up

https://hotair.com/archives/2018/11/06/upset-brewing-another-poll-suddenly-shows-montana-toss/

[MNJohnnie]

Nelson has been in Congress since Carter was President. He should be a very safe seat. If he loses in FL it is a bad night for the Ds since all the polling models have him winning.

[FR33DOM4ME]

Except they also changed the TN senate seat to Toss-Up yesterday too.

[DoodleDawg]

RCP Moves West Virginia To Toss-Up On Election Eve

Contain your enthusiasm. They also moved Tennessee from Leans Republican to Toss-up and downgraded North Dakota from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

[bort]

There is no F****** way that Bredesen beats Blackburn in TN. No way. Republican early voting is through the roof. Any poll that has this race even close is a JOKE.

[z3n]

Toss up = covering their ass.

~~~

Yes, how else would you interpret that?
It means either that it really is a perfect dead heat and he actually just switched it last minute (heh) or it means Manchin is probably down and he knows he will get called out for saying it ‘leaned democrat’.