Posted on 04/15/2019 8:21:12 AM PDT by SMGFan
Race for open seat in 2nd District is now a Toss-up
No one really gave Cornell College professor Dave Loebsack a chance of knocking off Republican Rep. Jim Leach in 2006. But the Democrat won that race, and more than a dozen years later, he’s announced that his current seventh term in Congress will be his last. Democrats now have to defend a competitive open seat that wasn’t previously on the list of vulnerable districts.
The 2nd District is the most Democratic of Iowa’s four seats, but it still had a GOP lean to it recently. President Barack Obama carried the 2nd by 13 points in 2012, while Donald Trump carried it by 4 points four years later. Loebsack had a close call in his 2010 re-election bid (when he won by less than a point), but he’s never dipped below a 5 points in his victories since. In 2014, Republican Joni Ernst won the 2nd by nearly 2 points in her winning Senate race against Democrat Bruce Braley. With the seat now open, we’re changing our Inside Elections rating of the race from Solid Democratic to Toss-up. That pushes the total number of vulnerable Democratic seats to 40, compared to 29 for the GOP. Republicans need a net gain of 18 or 19 seats for a majority, depending on the outcome of the new election in North Carolina later this year.
(Excerpt) Read more at rollcall.com ...
If Democrats "stole" seats in 2018, I haven't heard Trump say that.
What is being done for 2020?
What is being done for 2020?
Any of you guys wanna weigh in on this?
Since 1972, that district has had pretty rotten members. First it had left-wing Dem “Fast Eddie” Mezvinsky for two terms (though he could barely be bothered to return to Iowa and moved to Pennsylvania), then the execrable RINO Jim Leach for 30 years and then Loebsack.
I think it will boil down to recruitment and $$. Obviously the Dems can’t afford to lose this seat. No excuse for the IA GOP not to put up excellent candidates to take back the 3 seats they formerly held.
Usually the most rat seat in IA, it was actually Trump’s 2nd best in 2016 (by a slight margin). Loesbeck did not see any significant increase in his vote last year (though a Libertarian stole 2 points from the Republican).
It needs to be targeted and we can definitely win it. It would be nice to get a clean sweep of the IA delegation.
Lost the CT House special election today.
65% to 35%.
Formerly a lean Dem district.
Won my town 106 to 90. We walked seriously.
Tied Avon 364 to 364.
Libs killed us in West htfd
I hoped I re-learned some lessons.
What district?
What was previous split?
Farmington? I thought you were in Plainville?
My sympathy, awful result given closeness in 2016 race (despite wide Shillery margin).
It was
54-46% in 2016.
I’m checking it all out now
Poor candidate recruitment.
West htfd gop took a pass
So we lost ground?
GOP had a strong candidate in ‘14.
The candidate yesterday was a poor match for The district.
If we hadn’t hustled, we woulda been swept in the 3 towns. Bad headline in our fight vs Tolls.
We ran a gun club guy in a lefty place. Bad match.
So this was a D hold?
D. Hold.
GOP hasn’t won there since about ‘06
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.