The two groups who WILL vote AGAINST the deal are:
1. Pro-remain parties like LibDems and the Greens (well just the two of them)
2. Pro-leave DUP who don’t like that the NI remains in the customs union
Possibly you will have
Pro-LEAVE Tory MPs like the ERG who vote against it for the same reason as the DUP (though I doubt this)
SNP should abstain - they gain nothing by voting for or against this, but they gain a lot by abstaining (meaning independence referendum 2)
“SNP should abstain - they gain nothing by voting for or against this, but they gain a lot by abstaining (meaning independence referendum 2)”
Not sure how you figure out. They can’t exactly claim to have tried their best to stop Scotland being ‘damaged’ by a ‘disastrous’ brexit if they abstain. They’d likely lose support from desperate formerly unionist remainers who would turn away from them again in disgust.
It looks like reality is begining to dawn on the scotnats, and their supporters, that Independence will mean a hard border with England. The red in tooth and claw nationalists won’t see that as an issue, but moderates who are persuadable either way probably will, especially those in the Scottish border areas that will be alarmed at the prospect of a hard border with England now that they have seen with this deal, Scotland would be forced to choose between being in the British single market and customs area, or the EU one. Since the former is demonstrably far more important, their economic argument will be torn to shreds by any credible economist, which means the only argument they’ve got left is the emotional ‘FREEEEEDDOOOMMM’ braveheart one, which they have tried to avoid.