The Chinese Communist Regime is on the Brink of ‘Disintegration,’ Says Leading China Expert

Epoch Times ^ | 12/6/2019 | Frank Fang

[Zhang Fei]

The Chinese communist regime is heading towards disintegration and the West needs to be prepared to manage the fallout, according to a leading China scholar.

Arthur Waldron, China historian and Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, made the remarks in a recent interview on The Epoch Times’ American Thought Leaders. He shared his views on the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) imminent collapse, U.S. foreign policy on China, and the relentless Hong Kong protests that have posed a major challenge to Beijing’s rule. CCP’s Disintegration

The CCP has started on a path of decline and is headed towards a similar fate as the Soviet Union when it collapsed in 1991, the professor said.

“I believe that China is in this stage of disintegration or ‘jie ti (解體)’, and it’s something that you don’t see immediately,” said Waldron.

The Chinese regime’s practice of forced organ harvesting—which results in an estimated tens of thousands of prisoners of conscience killed every year to supply its organ transplant market—and its treatment of Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in the northwestern region of Xinjiang, made it “the most evil regime” since the Nazi Germany, Waldron said.

He recalled a conversation with an unidentified person, who is a close advisor to Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

“He said to me, Arthur, what the hell are we going to do? Everybody knows that this [political] system doesn’t work. We have reached a “si hu tong” (死胡同),” said Waldron said, explaining that the Chinese phrase means a “dead-end street.”

The advisor continued: “But what we don’t know is what is the next step to take because … there are mines everywhere and if we take a step, we may set off a terrible explosion.”

[Zhang Fei]

Arthur Waldron, like Michael Pillsbury, are two sinologists not in thrall to the Communists ruling the roost China. I don't always agree with his assessments, but his arguments are always thought-provoking.

[metmom]

So are we.

Hopefully President Trump will get re-elected for another term.

[Lurkinanloomin]

I hope he is right.

Communism is bad.

[mrsmith]

Bah.
Feudal systems, like China has, don’t fall until everything falls with them.

[devane617]

no it’s not

[Candor7]

Ping!

So much winning!

[Candor7]

Ping!

So much winning!

[Lysandru]

I remember reading a book in 1987 that claimed that the Castro Regime was heading for imminent collapse. Over 3 decades later, I am still waiting.

However, this story quotes a sinologist who claims secondary access to the thinking of a CCP Politburo member. I also think that anyone who wants to ban portrayals of Winnie the Pooh because they are subversive is not confident about their hold on power.

[frank ballenger]

So are we. Hopefully President Trump will get re-elected for another term.

Maybe Iran,China,Russia,Germany and the US will topple. Then we can apply to the governments of Somalia and the Republic of Congo for foreign aid and full welfare.

Space alien in ship hovering above Area 51: "See? I told you we should have just kept on going past Neptune. Now we have to untangle their mess for them. Call Georgio Tsoukalos."

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Zhang Fei. Copying only what you cherry pick in order to mimic a successful economic system doesn't work.

[Zhang Fei]

[Bah.
Feudal systems, like China has, don’t fall until everything falls with them.]

---

I don’t know about systemic change, but regime changes are fairly common. Depending on how you keep count, the 20th century incorporated 5 regimes/rulers - Imperial China, Yuan Shih-kai, Chiang Kai-shek, Mao Tse-tung, Teng Hsiao-ping. Xi Jinping is essentially part of the Deng period, which began after Deng’s successful coup against Mao’s hand-picked successor, Hua Guofeng. It’s a feudal system in the sense that the ruler has absolute power backed up by pitiless violence, and this power is shared/delegated to powerful courtiers, but this is leavened by regular changes of regime where the elites are either replaced by other elites or the lowest strata of society by armed force.

[Robert DeLong]

the solution is to become a partner with the West, not an adversary seeking world domination for evil ends.

[ryderann]

I doubt these folks will go softly into the night.

[proxy_user]

I’m sure the rulers are thoroughly familiar with both the Boxer Rebellion and the Taiping Rebellion - that’s why Hong Kong scares them.

[marktwain]

Precisely.

Stop cheating.

Enter the family of nations. Embrace the rule of law and property rights.

China has built enough infrastructure and capitalistic institutions, they can transition to the rule of law, if they chose to do so.

[Oldexpat]

At the start of Maos cultural revolution China was ready to fall apart. The south was in revolt and Mao stared the red guard to counter. Nixon helped by opening the door. We were used.

[mrsmith]

Hard to change a regime when it can launch a nuke at an enemy.

[Unam Sanctam]

I’ll believe it when I see it.

[Zhang Fei]

[I remember reading a book in 1987 that claimed that the Castro Regime was heading for imminent collapse. Over 3 decades later, I am still waiting.]

---

I think there’s a tendency among Chinese historians to downplay the fluidity of Chinese regimes. The first peasant emperor of France was Napoleon, who ascended the throne around 200 years ago. The first peasant emperor of China gained his position 2200 years ago. He founded the Han dynasty. It lasted 400 years. Dynasties founded by peasants have ruled China for about 1/3 of its 2200 years. And that’s just the big changes in regimes, marked out by bright red lines. The more Chinese history I read, the more I’m impressed at how rambunctious the Chinese population is, even as Chinese historians repeat their mantra that the population is docile, even in the face of numerous recorded elite mutinies and popular uprisings.

[Zhang Fei]

[I doubt these folks will go softly into the night.]

---

Roughly 1/4 of the Chinese population died during the 19th century while trying to overthrow the Qing dynasty. Did that kind of gumption die with these rebels? Time will tell.