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The decade that blew up energy predictions
Axios ^ | Dec 23, 2019 | Amy Harder, Andrew Witherspoon

Posted on 12/25/2019 10:24:01 AM PST by cutty

America’s energy sources, like booming oil and crumbling coal, have defied projections and historical precedents over the last decade.

...

unexpectedly,

...

In 2010, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that in 2019, the U.S. would be producing about six million barrels of oil a day. The reality? We're now producing 12 million barrels of oil a day.

Meanwhile, EIA projected oil prices would be more than $100 a barrel. They're currently hovering around $60 a barrel.

What’s happening: A pair of extraction methods — horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing — have unlocked far more oil and gas than experts had predicted, and companies have gotten hyper-efficient extracting more oil from each well.

...

Oil imports.

EIA had projected in 2010 that the U.S. would be importing a net eight million barrels of petroleum by now, which includes crude oil and petroleum products like gasoline. In September, the U.S. actually exported a net 89,000 barrels of petroleum.

Flashback: A driving reason behind this is Congress lifting the 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports in 2015, a policy change few thought possible a decade ago.

...

Natural gas production.

In 2010, EIA projected that the U.S. would be producing about 20 trillion cubic feet of natural gas by now. In 2018, the last full year of annual data, we produced more than 30 trillion.

What’s happening: Horizontal drilling and fracking are the key drivers here too — though oil is typically more valuable than gas, so the increase has been greater with oil than gas.

...

Greenhouse gas emissions.

EIA had projected in 2010 that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions would continue rising, albeit at a slower pace. In fact, they dropped.

(Excerpt) Read more at axios.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New Mexico; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: agw; anothercrapblog; carbon; carbondioxide; carbonemissions; climatechange; co2; coal; drillbabydrill; eia; electricity; emissions; gas; naturalgas; oil; palinwasright; waroncoal

1 posted on 12/25/2019 10:24:01 AM PST by cutty
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To: cutty

EIA had projected in 2010 that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions would continue rising, albeit at a slower pace. In fact, they dropped.


But Greta Thunberg and her ilk, continue to screech and lecture us, the United States, when we are actually moving in the right direction, per her own criteria.


2 posted on 12/25/2019 10:27:23 AM PST by Dilbert San Diego
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To: cutty

I checked a book out of the library last week from 2007, the subject of which was how to get rich on the coming oil peak and subsequent collapse. The peak being predicted for 2012.

I wanted to see what sort of outlandish predictions it made.
Aside from being totally discredited by events, it actually had some very good material on how oil is formed, where it is found, how it is extracted and how it is refined.


3 posted on 12/25/2019 10:34:38 AM PST by Flash Bazbeaux
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To: Dilbert San Diego

the next decade is going to be crazier.

in 2019 Tesla stopped being a faith based organization. They now have a clean balance sheet.

What happens next? Tesla and many other companies start to grind down demand for oil at rising scales. By 2030, the energy world will be entirely different.


4 posted on 12/25/2019 10:36:36 AM PST by ckilmer
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To: cutty

They would have hit their targets except for one minor detail, Donald J. Trump.


5 posted on 12/25/2019 10:36:38 AM PST by hardspunned
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To: cutty

Oil Production by Country 1900 – 2018

https://videos.whatfinger.com/2019/12/24/oil-production-by-country-1900-2018-cool-stats-make-you-stare-many-more-topics-linked/


6 posted on 12/25/2019 10:38:38 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Democrats only believe in democracy when they win the election.)
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To: ckilmer
Tesla and many other companies start to grind down demand for oil at rising scales.

Lucky thing that electricity is produced magically and mining for battery raw materials is good for the environment.

7 posted on 12/25/2019 10:44:02 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Democrats only believe in democracy when they win the election.)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

The dictator in China: (the world’s biggest carbon emitter) gets a pass from Greta, George Soros, and their pals as the dictator pledges (lies) to make steep cuts their carbon emissions ..

As we know: China is building more coal-fired plant capacity than the rest of the world combined.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3803133/posts


8 posted on 12/25/2019 10:45:06 AM PST by cutty
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To: cutty

Did fracking save obamanomics from being far more severe than it was?


9 posted on 12/25/2019 11:19:34 AM PST by clearcarbon
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To: Flash Bazbeaux

I had a friend in early 2000’s who was 100% positive that we were at peak oil, the Iraq was was really about controlling the finite resource of oil... He subscribed to a guy, I think it was “From the Wilderness” who was some former insider who knew what was really happening... all a crock and I tried telling him that. He wouldn’t hear it.


10 posted on 12/25/2019 11:29:52 AM PST by vpintheak (Leftists are full of "Love, peace" and bovine squeeze.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Wow. That’s instructive.


11 posted on 12/25/2019 11:57:48 AM PST by DariusBane (Liberty and Risk. Flip sides of the same coin. So how much risk will YOU accept? Vive Deo et Vives)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

If production (and I would assume consumption) has increased, how is it possible? Are engines much more efficient now? Have we merely exported our pollution?


12 posted on 12/25/2019 1:39:59 PM PST by scrabblehack
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To: clearcarbon
Did fracking save obamanomics from being far more severe than it was?
Yes. There was the story of the economist who told the oil industry execs, “congratulations, you got Obama reelected."

13 posted on 12/25/2019 1:43:25 PM PST by conservatism_IS_compassion (Socialism is cynicism directed towards society and - correspondingly - naivete towards government.)
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Also consider the $60 a barrel with the NON-inflation money inflation over the past 9 years.

Remember - Leftists Lie as Easily as they Breath and care nothing about Truth.


14 posted on 12/25/2019 2:17:40 PM PST by elbook
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

My first thought also!


15 posted on 12/25/2019 2:32:58 PM PST by 1FreeAmerican
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To: ckilmer

“Tesla and many other companies start to grind down demand for oil at rising scales.”

Where is the electricity going to come from? How will it be generated?


16 posted on 12/25/2019 3:18:51 PM PST by Rembrandt (-)
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To: Rembrandt

Wind and Solar don’t you know? Of course along with less people being able to run their AC/furnaces or refrigerators


17 posted on 12/25/2019 4:37:24 PM PST by Glad2bnuts (“If there are no absolutes by which to judge society, then society is absolute.” Francis Schaeffer)
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To: ckilmer

Tell me again about the magic pixie darts used to charge the Tesas’ batteries.
Coal.


18 posted on 12/25/2019 5:02:25 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: scrabblehack
If production (and I would assume consumption) has increased, how is it possible? Are engines much more efficient now? Have we merely exported our pollution?

Mostly it's because cleaner natural gas is replacing dirty coal in electricity generation. Extracting and using natural gas generates far less indirect CO2.

Money is data, which is why most of it is stored and processed by computers these days. At its root, money data is about energy consumption. If new product B costs more than old product A, then B is consuming more energy somewhere, and indirectly more pollution. To find out where just follow the money.

Knowing that about pricing it is easy to determine that extracting petroleum at today's price of $60 a barrel requires far less energy and generates less pollution than when oil is at $100. Why: because as the demand for oil exceeds supply, oil producers start using more energy intensive methods to meet the demand, something not financially viable at lower prices.

It's also why Bill Gate's new $100 million investment in building a factory that extracts CO2 from the air is doomed. Based on the cost to do so it is easy to determine that his scheme will produce more CO2 than it extracts. It's a completely foolish endeavor, but Democrat Bill Gates never saw a tax incentive he didn't like.

It's also why carbon taxes will actually increase CO2 output. It's impossible for the government to spend the carbon taxes collected without consuming energy. Spending is the same thing as energy consumption. And nobody does that more inefficiently than government. The free market will need to spend and consume more to offset the investment dollars extracted to fund the massive increase inefficient spending.

19 posted on 12/25/2019 6:38:59 PM PST by Reeses (A journey of a thousand miles begins with a government pat down.)
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