When will the coronavirus outbreak peak?

Nature ^ | 2/18/20 | David Cyranoski

[LibWhacker]

Officials want to know but predictions vary wildly, from now to after hundreds of millions of people are infected.

Coronavirus infections in China continue to swell by thousands a day, prompting epidemiologists to estimate when the outbreak will peak. Some suggest the climax, when the number of new infections in a single day reaches its highest point, will happen any time now. Others say that it is months away and that the virus will infect millions — or in one estimate hundreds of millions — of people first.

Public health officials want to know roughly when the peak will be — and how many will be infected — so that they can prepare hospitals and know when it will be safe to lift travel restrictions. Wuhan, the city at the centre of the epidemic, and several other nearby cities have been on lockdown since late January.

Although peak predictions can be illuminating, some researchers warn that accuracy is difficult to achieve, especially when the data used in models are incomplete. “If you revise your predictions every week to say that the outbreak will peak in a week or two, eventually you will be correct,” says Brian Labus, who works on disease surveillance at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

[G Larry]

My guess.....mid-March.

It takes at least 2 weeks for the data to reflect.

[Paladin2]

Right after Peak Oil?

[Dave Wright]

A lot will depend on when the weather gets warmer. The additional heat and UV light from the sun will kill more of the virus than anything manmade can. I’m banking that an early Summer and higher temperatures due to climate change will ultimately stop the epidemic.

[sanjuanbob]

82 degrees at PGA West today. Feelin’ healthy.

[proust]

Why didn’t this apply to the Spanish flu? It ripped though equatorial countries.

[foreverfree]

Bump

[ctdonath2]

Until a vaccine is developed and most are immunized. >10M dead before then.

[ScottfromNJ]

“The additional heat and UV light from the sun will kill more of the virus than anything manmade can. I’m banking that an early Summer and higher temperatures due to climate change will ultimately stop the epidemic.”

Singapore is near the equator, and has one of the highest number of cases of all countries outside of China.

[webheart]

It is well past the peak and now is being flogged like a dead horse to sell commercials on breathless newscasts.

[setter]

“Why didn’t this apply to the Spanish flu? It ripped though equatorial countries.”

Coronavirus hits Asian males, especially smokers have the most successability to getting the virus because Asian males have highest amount of ACE2 cells of all races

White females of Italian heritage very difficult as they have the least amount.

[iontheball]

Let’s hope it follows the normal flu virus progression, but because it has been engineered, we are in new territory and all bets are off.

[heshtesh]

As far as i’m concerned it can take it’s sweet old time, in the interim i’ll be looking forward to us resuming our mutually honest and respectful relationship once again with the Chinese.

[arthurus]

If this was a weapons lab leak then Trump and the CIA/NSA already knows. I hope we are preparing an appropriate chastisement.

[arthurus]

If this was a weapons lab leak then Trump and the CIA/NSA already knows. I hope we are preparing an appropriate chastisement.

[heshtesh]

10M dead before then.

Hell that won’t even get a sneeze out of one nostril from the Chinese leadership.

[arthurus]

I don’t think the temperature matters much. That is speculation based on the Flu being a winter phenomenon. The sunshine is the magic bullet, I think. it is the preventative and cure for colds and flu and maybe other viruses, too.

[heshtesh]

Shutting down the country might be the only thing that saves them based on the pollution we normally see from the big cities in China.

[Vermont Lt]

I’ve been watching newscasts. Most of the information is watered down and not very accurate. Most of the docs on the news clearly don’t have current information.

The coverage is much lower than breathless.

[ThanhPhero]

It does affect the incidence of the common influenza and cold viruses. In Việt Nam where the women have traditionally covered up so as not to get any sun on their skin, these viruses are "women's maladies." Men go about bare armed and hatless a lot and do not get sick. That tropical sun is always at aan effective angle and the temperature does not get cold, at least in the south. In Hà Nội where it gets cold- welll cld as southern Alabama, men get viruses in the winter but less than women do.