Hear the People!: How Wuhan Residents Are Estimating the True Death Toll...And It's Much Higher Than the Official Number

Townhall ^ | 03/30/2020 | Leah Barkoukis

[Zhang Fei]

[So, am I to assume that in a city of 10 Million people plus its suburbs, that none of them have ever passed away before from anything other than bat gazpacho flu?

China reported a death rate (TOTAL) of 7000 per 1,000,000 people in 2017. Wuhan + surrounding area, say 14 Million?

In a TYPICAL year, that part of the world will deal with 98,000 human remains from all causes. Not saying the chicoms are telling the truth, but some of the alarmist crap needs to be thought upon...]

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No telling what the Wuhan deaths are, normally, without access to official Chinese stats but deaths for China as a whole were 7.14 per 1000 population in 2019. Wuhan has 11m people, so monthly deaths would be 7.14 x 11,000 / 12 = 6,545. Assuming the numbers cover a 3 month period, and the low estimate of 42,000 urns over that period, that’s 42,000 - 3 x 6,545 = 22,365 excess deaths over the normal run-of-the-mill death numbers, which is likely explicable by the covid-19 pandemic. And that’s just in Wuhan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Table_of_births_and_deaths_1950%E2%80%932019

What about the rest of the province? And the rest of China? My guess is a minimum of the low hundreds of thousands. Based on the numbers we’re seeing out of Italy, and merely multiplying by 20 to size up to China’s population, I’d say a minimum of 200,000 deaths.

Boris Johnson, presumably using MI-6 sources, both sigint and humint, postulates that the total Chinese death toll is 40x the published numbers. That would bring it to the 120K level.

FYI, the flu numbers are a guess. As in they take pneumonia deaths and assume the flu for some %, despite the vast majority of the deceased not having been tested for flu viruses. The actual positive tests are in the hundreds per year. The rest of the tens of thousands of flu deaths are a guess.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Whereas every death coded as covid-19 is an actual. There might be any number of covid-19 deaths that were coded as pneumonia and not tested for the covid-19, but they aren’t in the covid-19 deaths number.

[SgtHooper]

LOL! Excellent!

[JonPreston]

Not so sure about this article. Many of the board virologists have the death rate in China much lower.

[Zhang Fei]

Look up “boris johnson china deaths”

[SgtHooper]

So you want Fox to somehow divine some numbers that refute the obviously bogus PRC numbers? Or to simply say essentially that “this is what is reported, but we do not believe it?”

[sevlex]

It’s a “delicacy”.

[BlackAdderess]

I think that China’s very questionable numbers are the reason that people underestimated this virus. With what they told us it didn’t look that bad. It’s easy enough to believe a head of state like Xi when he says that there is a virus that has killed xyz number of people in his country because we expect heads of state to be responsible people. It would be like lying about an earthquake, and yet here we are.

[The_Media_never_lie]

So you want Fox to somehow divine some numbers that refute the obviously bogus PRC numbers? Or to simply say essentially that “this is what is reported, but we do not believe it?”

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Divining numbers might be more accurate.

Why run with such a story that is unprovable, and more than likely bogus.

Who originated the story? Why? Did it originally come from the ChiComs? This was THE STORY of the day, last Thursday. Don't you agree the whole thing is bogus?

Remember now, they have 1.4 billion people, we have 350 million. The virus has had a tremendous head start there, since China got it right off the bat.

[null and void]

Commie China's numbers are 100% accurate </FluBros, CNN, DNC, etc.>

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[mad_as_he$$]

Burning 500 bodies a day in a crematorium - even several units - is a serious undertaking in logistics.

[null and void]

BBQToadRibs ~ There’s a sale on instant bat noodle soup. FYI...

cuban leaf ~ I already stocked up!

(tastes like chicken)

That's why they call it 'Chicken of the Cave'

BTW, barbecued toad ribs also taste like chicken...

[Balding_Eagle]

Well Duh.

Seesh, I’m just getting going this morning, my brain isn’t in gear yet.

[null and void]

...anything other than bat gazpacho flu?

Red Dwarf Ping!

[null and void]

*ouch*

[null and void]

The media lack even the basic understanding of politics/math!!!

They have a perfect understanding of politics.

[null and void]

You mean there is still some left on the shelves? LOL

Yep.

It's only slightly less popular than tofu...

[DAVEY CROCKETT]

Ping List Please

[lupie]

Thanks for the post. I was just getting ready to ask what the normal death toll for that time period is expected to be.

[PanzerKardinal]

If you’re from Guanzhou and work in Shanghai, you have to have a Shanghai phone.

Why?

Because it’s easier for state security to track you.

So if you’re going home, you turn off your phone.

Also because cellphone rates are expensive, people are given company phones. Company closes - no more phone.

Finally, China is economically collapsing. People are canceling all their services.

[volunbeer]

I have been skimming foreign papers and media the last few days as it is always interesting to see their take on news here in the US. The CCP really screwed the pooch with this thing and there is rising anger in the reporting overseas and an undercurrent of anger in China that I did not expect.

Ironically, there is more respect for Trump and the virus response of his administration overseas than here in the US, but that has been true throughout his administration.

While we do not know what the fallout might be, the editorials here in the US that have labeled this “China’s Chernobyl” might be closer to the truth than we thought?

I think we will see more anger towards China moving forward (well deserved) as more people comprehend how much worse this was made by the actions (or inaction) of the communist party.