Posted on 04/07/2020 2:35:20 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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COVID-19 Update
As of 04/06/2020 22:23 PDST (taken at 23:59)
Good morning everyone.
Thank you for stopping by to check out this Update.
Links to other resources: Near the bottom of this post.
Commentary2: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
The Issue of New Cases Leveling Out or Dropping
Lets talk about this for a moment.
Up front, we have to mention there are two bodies of people we need to address
on this topic. There is the global community of which we are a part, and then
there is the U. S.
Looking back on how this disease traveled around the world, it's important to
take into consideration that the global community (ouside China) and (also)
outside the United States, contracted the disease before the U. S. became widely
infected
That global community announced it's 2,700th case on 02/25. The United States
documented it's 2,700th case on 03/14. This means it could be stated that the
United States is about 18 days behind the global progression.
That kind of logic can get us in trouble if you'll remember how the numbers
looked for Spain, Italy, Germany, and France, presented below. They all started
out with numbers close to each other on 02/20, but as time passed some of their
case numbers went considerably higher than the case numbers for some of the
others.
What I'm trying to express, is that we trail the global community, but we can't
be certain by how much. So if they are flattening out, would that hit us right
away? I would think probably not, but you just can't be sure.
Lets look at some numbers.
Here: (case growth)
-
Global Global (EC)
Excluding Minus the
China the U. S. U. S.
03/29 58,481 38,955 19,826
03/30 62,463 40,868 21,595
03/31 73,836 48,832 25,004
04/01 77,502 50,405 27,097
04/02 78,548 49,710 28,838
04/03 102,458 69,559 32,899
04/04 84,954 51,111 33,843
04/05 71,866 46,465 25,401
04/06 72,272 41,534 30,738
From looking at those, it does appear to me that the global community is seeing
In the United States we saw 25,401 new case reported the day before yesterday.
That was a nice drop off from the two days befdore. Then yesterday the numbers
rose back up to 30,738.
The United States will trail the global community at large, because the global
community contracted the problem before we did. I wouldn't put too much
stock in how many days prior to us they reached certain milestones though.
We've gotten fairly earnest about social distancing and sheltering in place.
Those things may help us cut the time it takes us to see the postive direction
here, we seem to be seeing for them now.
Stay tuned...
Has Sweden Gotten it Right, or is it Simply Becoming a Time Bomb
Sweeden adopted a plan that institued social distancing and continuing to work,
through the virus. They do take special measures with compromised people, the
elderly and others with known problems. This kept their economy largely in tact.
Those who can are encouraged to work remotely.
Other nations around Sweeeden aren't sure they like that. Let me rephrase that.
The last I heard they didn't like it.
Let's see if we can gain some meaning from Sweeden compared to it's neighbors.
DATE SWEEDEN DENMARK FINLAND NORWAY - 02/21 1 0 1 0 02/26 2 0 1 1 03/02 15 4 6 25 03/07 -- 161 -- 27 -- 19 -- 156 03/12 599 617 59 702 03/17 1,196 1,024 321 1,471 03/22 1,934 1,514 626 2,385 03/27 -- 3,069 -- 2,700 -- 1,041 -- 3,771 04/01 4,947 3,290 1,446 4,877 04/06 7,206 4,875 2,176 5,865 - Deaths 477 187 27 77This has particularly interested me, because this is more the direction I would
Now, can that be sustainable, bearing the weight of the deaths? I'm not the only
jury member on that case. All in all, this is basically how we handle the flu
every single year. Tens of thousands die, and we keep right on trucking along.
There will be a lot to hash out when COVID-19 has fully come and gone.
I'll keep an eye on this dynamic, and add to the above numbers daily.
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Yesterday's Growth Rate Rose Back Up
Declared Cases in the United States
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GRWTH GROWTH
-
03/20 19,624 5,374 539
03/21 26,747 7,123 1,749
03/22 35,206 8,459 1,336
03/23 46,442 11,236 2,777
03/24 54,893 8,789 -2,427
03/25 60,197 13,966 5,177
03/26 85,991 16,794 2,828
03/27 104,839 18,848 2,054
03/28 124,665 19,826 978
03/29 143,025 18,360 -1,466
03/30 164,620 21,595 3,235
03/31 189,624 25,004 3,409
04/01 216,721 27,097 2,093
04/02 245,559 28,838 1,741
04/03 278,458 32,899 4,061
04/04 312,237 33,779 899
04/05 337,638 25,401 -8,378
04/06 368,376 30,738 5,337
You'll note the growth figure dropped by 8,378 cases the day before yesterday
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, & Serious/Critical Cases
in the United States
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 252 152 404 19,220
03/21 329 176 505 26,242
03/22 396 178 574 34,632
03/23 428 178 606 45,836
03/24 581 354 935 54,296
03/25 753 619 1,372 67,825
03/26 1,301 1,868 3,169 82,822
03/27 1,704 2,622 4,326 100,513
03/28 2,229 3,231 5,460 119,205
03/29 2,488 4,562 7,050 135,975
03/30 3,170 5,507 8,677 155,943
03/31 4,055 7,251 11,306 178,318
04/01 5,112 8,878 13,990 202,731 5,005
04/02 6,095 10,403 16,498 229,061 5,421
04/03 7,403 12,283 19,686 258,772 5,787
04/04 8,454 14,825 23,279 288,958 5,870
04/05 9,620 17,977 27,597 310,041 8,702
04/06 10,943 19,810 30,753 337,623 8,983
It's hard to ignore the fatalities adding up. At the same time we have a lot of
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie Continues to Grow
Once again, lets take a moment to address the U. S. portion of the
global declared cases.
The U. S. has roughly 4.252% of the global populace. There are two
figures I'm tracking with regard to this, the Declared Cases and the
Active Cases.
Here is what the movement for those two categories looks like.
DECLARED DAY'S ACTIVE DAY'S
DATE CASES CHGE CASES CHGE
-
03/20 7.125% 1.297% 10.934% 1.552%
03/21 8.704% 1.579% 13.000% 2.066%
03/22 10.377% 1.673% 15.343% 2.343%
03/23 12.170% 1.793% 17.411% 2.068%
03/24 13.053% 0.883% 18.369% 0.958%
03/25 14.657% 1.604% 20.190% 1.821%
03/26 16.140% 1.483% 21.454% 1.264%
03/27 17.530% 1.390% 22.920% 1.466%.
03/28 18.742% 1.212% 24.126% 1.206%
03/29 19.762% 1.020% 25.289% 1.163%
03/30 20.936% 1.174% 26.777% 1.488%
03/31 22.045% 1.109% 27.885% 1.108%
04/01 23.110% 1.065% 29.120% 1.235%
04/02 24.160% 1.050% 30.482% 1.362%
04/03 24.886% 0.726% 31.057% 0.575%
04/04 25.935% 1.049% 32.400% 1.343%
04/05 26.464% 0.529% 32.866% 0.466%
04/06 27.324% 0.860% 34.153% 1.287%
These percentages are still troublesome. If the global body of the populace does
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Global Cases Increased to Record Levels Today, Outside M/L China
Yes, back to still more numbers...
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GROWTH GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20 194,148 30,824 5,185
03/21 225,932 31,784 963
03/22 257,820 31,888 104
03/23 297,172 39,352 7,464
03/24 341,530 41,462 2,110
03/25 390,378 48,848 7,386
03/26 451,006 60,628 11,780
03/27 516,124 65,118 4,490
03/28 583,107 66,983 1,865
03/29 641,588 58,481 -8,502
03/30 704,051 62,463 3,982
03/31 777,887 73,836 11,373
04/01 855,389 77,502 3,666
04/02 933,937 78,548 1,046
04/03 1,036,395 102,458 23,910
04/04 1,121,349 84,954 -17,054
04/05 1,193.215 71,866 13,088
04/06 1,265,487 72,272 386
It's not quite as obvious here, that the global growth in declared cases seems
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Excluding M/L China
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 8,110 16,393 24,503 169,645
03/21 9,740 19,995 29,735 196,197
03/22 11,305 25,485 36,790 221,030
03/23 13,060 28,470 41,530 258,538
03/24 15,347 35,256 50,603 290,927
03/25 17,643 40,467 58,210 332,168
03/26 20,785 48,084 68,869 382,137
03/27 24,466 56,801 81,267 434,857
03/28 27,522 64,777 92,299 490,808
03/29 30,714 76,342 107,056 534,532
03/30 34,515 89,989 124,504 579,547
03/31 39,052 102,121 141,163 636,724
04/01 43,949 118,092 162,041 693,348
04/02 49,838 135,204 185,042 748,895
04/03 55,611 150,014 205,625 839,770
04/04 61,466 170,309 231,775 889,574 41,993
04/05 66,183 185,921 252,104 941,111 45,633
04/06 71,485 208,635 280,120 985,367 47,201
Big numbers... they speak for themselves.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
DATE FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN - 02/20 12 16 3 2 02/25 14 18 322 9 03/01 100 117 1,128 76 03/06 -- 653 -- 670 -- 4,636 -- 401 03/11 2,284 1,966 12,462 2,277 03/16 6,650 7,272 27,980 9,942 03/21 14,485 22,364 53,578 25,496 03/26 -- 29,566 -- 43,938 -- 80,589 -- 57,786 03/31 52,819 68,180 105,792 94,417 04/05 93,780 100,123 128,948 131,646 04/06 98,984 103,375 132,547 136,675 > 1 day not fiveI'll continue to monitor these nations and document the numbers here.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China numbers make up 00.32% of today's cases globally
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day on 04/04/2020, there are:
1 nation(s) with 300,000 plus (take a bow...) 3 nation(s) with 100,000 to 199,999 4 nation(s) with 50,000 to 99,999 3 natiom(s) with 20,000 to 49,999 6 nation(s) with 10,000 to 19,999 6 nation(s) with 5,000 to 9,999 38 nation(s) with 1,000 to 4,999
There are currently 61 nations with a 1,000 count or above...
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
DECLAR DAY'S RESOLVED DAY'S PCT DEC ACTIVE
DATE CASES GROWTH CASES GROWTH CS RESOL CASES
-
03/20 - 275,434 - 30,911 - 99,655 - 3,590 - 36.181% - 175,779
03/21 307,280 31,846 105,425 5,770 34.309% 201,855
03/22 339,259 31,979 113,540 8,115 33.467% 225,719
03/23 - 381,621 - 42,362 - 118,369 - 4,829 - 31.017% - 263,252
03/24 423,121 41,500 127,538 9,169 30.142% 295,583
03/25 472,109 48,998 136,178 8,640 28.845% 335,931
03/26 - 532,788 - 60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% - 386,039
03/27 598,070 65,282 159,533 12,784 26.675% 438,537
03/28 665,164 67,094 171,077 11,544 25.720% 494,087
03/29 - 723,740 - 58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% - 537,680
03/30 786,291 62,551 203,926 17,848 25.933% 582,383
03/31 860,181 73,890 220,713 16,085 25.659% 639,468
04/01 - 937,783 - 77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% - 696,192
04/02 1,016,401 78,618 264,935 23,344 26.066% 751,466
04/03 1,118,921 102,520 285,706 20,771 25.534% 833,215
04/04 - 1,203,923 - 85,002 - 312,068 - 26,362 - 25.931% - 891,855
04/05 1,275,856 71,933 332,513 20,445 26.062% 943,343
04/06 1,348,184 72,328 359,618 27,105 26.674% 988,566
We have established that for the time being, the global community has seen a
Look at the percentage of resolved cases. It has finally broken out of the
mid to upper 25.500% range. Here's to hoping we'll see that figure grow over
coming days.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Including M/L China
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 11,399 88,256 99,655 175,779
03/21 13,049 92,376 105,425 201,855
03/22 14,706 98,834 113,540 225,719
03/23 16,563 101,806 118,369 263,252
03/24 18,919 108,619 127,358 295,583
03/25 21,308 114,870 136,178 335,931
03/26 24,077 122,672 146,749 386,039
03/27 27,761 131,772 159,533 438,537
03/28 30,852 140,225 171,077 494,087
03/29 34,018 152,042 186,060 537,680
03/30 37,820 166,088 203,908 582,383
03/31 42,354 178,359 220,713 639,468
04/01 47,261 194,330 241,591 696,192
04/02 53,160 211,775 264,935 751,466
04/03 58,937 226,769 285,706 833,215
04/04 64,795 247,273 312,068 891,855 42,288 ch 295
04/05 69,514 262,999 332,513 943,343 45,898 ch 265
04/06 74,816 284,802 359,618 988,566 47,412 ch 211
It's sad to see so many deaths, but if we look at the casualties around the
Watched pot and all that applies here. Be patient.
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population
base represent one case. I'm also showing what percent of each
population base is infected at this time.
ENTITY PER 1 CASE DY BEF YES DY BEF THT CHG YEST CHG DY BEF - Globally : 7,860 8,237 8,712 -377 -475 Outside China : 7,885 8,256 8,735 -371 -439 The U. S. A. : 979 1,066 1,143 -87 -77 - ENTITY INFECTION LEVEL DY BEF YES DY BEF THT CHG YEST CHG DY BEF - Globally : 00.0120% 00.0114% 00.0107% 00.0006% 00.0007% Outside China : 00.0154% 00.0147% 00.0139% 00.0007% 00.0008% The U. S. A. : 00.1022% 00.0938% 00.0875% 00.0084% 00.0063%Compared to the other entities, the U. S. figures still don't look good. Each
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Other Features:
LINK US States DC51, Territories5+, and Counties200
Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK earlyAlert
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK World Health Organization
This is a quote from a youtube channel called donze52
It is based in McCook, Nebraska
I found it of interest.
“Jim Jackle
Jim Jackle
6 days ago
Here is how I cured this covid crap. There aren’t many tests in Oklahoma, but I’m 99.9% sure I had this, because the symptoms are identical to what people reported in Europe. I had a low grade fever and runny nose for 2 weeks. I just thought I had a bad cold and nothing else.
After 2 weeks the fever broke, and I felt back to normal, but then the next day all hell broke loose and this virus attacked my lungs like nothing I’ve ever seen. I was gasping for air and felt like I was drowning on the fluid it was causing. It was going balls to the wall apesht crazy in my airways. The attack happened so fast that I barely had time to think, but I ran in and got my hair dryer, and started breathing in the hot air to slow the virus replication.
This virus was replicating like a Mother F’er, but that hot air slowed it down where I wasn’t suffocating.
After I kicked its ass with my hair dryer and slowed the replication and the fluid it was causing, I put a space heater in my car and stayed in there for 2 days.
I used the car, because it was a small space that could easily be heated above 95 degrees. After 48 hours in the car/oven, all of the virus was killed out of my airways and I was cured. Fortunately I had been studying information about this virus and knew how to kick its ass with heat.
Lab tests were done on this virus in India that showed the virus was killed out at an air temperature above 95 degrees for 48 hours.
Another test done in Europe showed this virus replicated the fastest at an air temperature of 47.6 degrees.
Interestingly my attack happened in an air temp of 50 degrees. Had I not studied this virus and knew about how it behaved, I would have stayed in that 50 degree air and this thing would have kept replicating and killed me.
This dam thing reminds me of a bioweapon, because it attacked and replicated at a speed like no other virus I have seen. If you look at the earth, this virus is rampaging in a narrow band around the world where temps are between 41-51 degrees.
If you go below that band where temps are warmer, they have a few cases, but it’s nothing like it is in places like Northern Italy, Spain and NY where temps are hovering in the 40’s to low 50’s.
Anyway, the objective is to kill this virus and so far the doctors don’t have a pill to kill it, so you have to use a different weapon. If you think about it, mother nature uses hot air to kill viruses. Every year the air warms and the hot air enters people’s nasal passages and destroys the viruses, which ends our flu and cold season. It doesn’t matter if the sun warms the air, a hair dryer warms the air, or a space heater warms the air, it’s gonna have the same virus killing effect.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The above may be a joke. It may not. However, if it possibly could work, it may be even more important to get this out than the zelenko HCQ protocol. In case the HCQ supply vanishes, and tonic water (quinine) is pulled from the store shelves.
I too noticed that upswing from Sunday to yesterday. Was that driven mainly by New York reporting?
Please keep me on the list.
:)
Thanks for your update.
On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.
These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.
If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.
Here are the numbers:
Apr 1 Wed 5005
Apr 2 Thu 5421
Apr 3 Fri 5787
Apr 4 Sat 8206
Apr 5 Sun 8702
Apr 6 Mon 8879
1, 03/01/20, 86, -
2, 03/02/20, 105, 22.1%
3, 03/03/20, 127, 21.0%
4, 03/04/20, 159, 25.2%
5, 03/05/20, 233, 46.5%
6, 03/06/20, 338, 45.1%
7, 03/07/20, 433, 28.1%
8, 03/08/20, 554, 27.9%
9, 03/09/20, 754, 36.1%
10, 03/10/20, 1037, 37.5%
11, 03/11/20, 1312, 26.5%
12, 03/12/20, 1663, 26.8%
13, 03/13/20, 2174, 30.7%
14, 03/14/20, 2952, 35.8%
15, 03/15/20, 3774, 27.8%
16, 03/16/20, 4661, 23.5%
17, 03/17/20, 6496, 39.4%
18, 03/18/20, 9415, 44.9%
19, 03/19/20, 14250, 51.4%
20, 03/20/20, 19624, 37.7%
21, 03/21/20, 26747, 36.3%
22, 03/22/20, 35206, 31.6%
23, 03/23/20, 46442, 31.9%
24, 03/24/20, 55231, 18.9%
25, 03/25/20, 69197, 25.3%
26, 03/26/20, 85991, 24.3%
27, 03/27/20, 104839, 21.9%
28, 03/28/20, 124665, 18.9%
29, 03/29/20, 143025, 14.7%
30, 03/30/20, 164620, 15.1%
31, 03/31/20, 189624, 15.2%
32, 04/01/20, 216721, 14.3%
33, 04/02/20, 245559, 13.3%
34, 04/03/20, 278458, 13.4%
35, 04/04/20, 312237, 12.1%
36, 04/05/20, 337638, 8.1%
37, 04/06/20, 368376, 9.1%
Ping
Great work, thanks!
Ping list please.
Bless you for your work as ICU nurse.
Thank you for doing these analyses.
I have only looked at worldwide numbers, because of the fact that until the virus is wiped out everywhere, we will remain in danger of a reemergence here.
We are entering spring. Ordinary cold viruses become less active in the spring and summer; will this killer cold virus behave like its benign cousins? If it exhibits the same kind of seasonality, I expect to see cases drop off in the northern hemisphere, while they are picking up in the southern hemisphere. We’ll know if this is happening within a few weeks. The scenario of a virus sweeping through the southern hemisphere is very concerning, given the poor healthcare systems that exist, especially in Africa and to a large extent in South America.
I won’t post my graphs today, but I will note that the number of new cases is not increasing rapidly over the last few days, but it may only be because of the delay in testing that happens over the weekend. Another item I noticed is that the percent of active cases has dropped slightly and steadily since April 4, driven by both deaths and recoveries. The death rate has creeped up to 5.59%.
One last comment: influenza is something that most people do not pay much attention to, unless it kills someone in their immediate family. However, a lot of research dollars are invested in studying influenza. We have a massive vaccination program in place to try to decrease deaths and illnesses. Our pandemic program was instituted primarily to watch out for novel influenza viruses. A few years ago, when one of the hats I wore was Influenza Expert for my institution, there was a cluster of influenza deaths in Maryland. So many people came to my office to ask if a new pandemic was emerging, and I was able to reassure them that it was not a new pandemic. Covid-19, however... from the days of the first reports of an illness in China, I recognized that this virus has every characteristic of a pandemic capable pathogen. And here we are.
Thanks for the great information. That’s very interesting about Sweden, I didn’t know that. I also would have thought that would be the better approach but after looking at the numbers you posted, perhaps not.
Sweden certainly has a lot more cases than her neighbors, so I had to look up the population of the three countries. Sweden has a little less than double those of her neighbors. The other three have a little more than 5 million, while Sweden has about nine million. So it looks like the number of cases aren’t a whole lot different percentage-wise, except for Finland who has half the amount.
But what I find interesting is Sweden’s fatality rate of those with the virus is about 6.6%. Denmark fatality rate is about half that, while Finland and Norway have a fatality rate hovering around 1%.
So rather than look at what Sweden is doing I really wonder what Finland is doing. They have half of the number of cases based on her population than her neighbors. And the fatality rate of those cases is around 1%.
If I’m reading it all correctly.
I respect your opinion, but I have a slightly different view. I can not see where Sunday was an anomaly. See the chart below with the last four Sundays highlighted. I DO NOT see anomalies in the three prior Sundays on the chart. Last Sunday AND Monday both are notably lower than the previous Thursday and Friday. That pattern does not appear in the prior three weekends. If you see it differently from that chart, please point out exactly how the Sundays are different. I just don't see it.
Regarding temperatures, I tend to believe you are correct. I live in the south and our temps have been running in the 70's and 80's for the last 10 to 14 days. Our cases have not leveled off, albeit we started from a small number and are a relatively small state (4.6M). Then, I look at NY & NJ and that seems to be where the new daily cases have dropped most significantly. Those two states have represented between 45% and 50% of our growth in new cases over about the last three weeks for the entire country. Yet, they make up slightly over 5% of our population. I'm not sure the temps have climbed there as they have here, but there numbers (new cases) sure seem to be declining.
Finally, I saw DoughtyOne's comments about counting the number days. Like you, I greatly respect and appreciate his work, but I am in the camp that days DO count. The western European countries that I track (plus S. Korea) all have peaks in the number of new cases. In my mind new cases are the primary determinant of the curve. Now, their peaks are all different, but none have gone beyond 29 days except Italy, and they peaked at day 30. Saturday 4/5 was our day 29. Now, many of the countries had two peaks and the number I used above counts the second peak, if there was one. Our first peak was Saturday 4/5 (we could have another).
Your thoughts and comments are welcome.
click on image to enlarge
Data from Worldometer
one major anomoly seems to be Germany with 104K cases (which seem correct for the country of their size) but only having 1842 fatalities.
I wonder what they are doing better - or are they just luckier with the spread
Country,
Other Total
Cases New
Cases Total
Deaths New
Deaths Total
Recovered Active
Cases Serious,
Critical Tot Cases/
1M pop Deaths/
1M pop Total
Tests Tests/
1M pop
World 1,365,330 +19,326 76,504 +1,850 293,910 994,916 47,666 175 9.8
USA 369,522 +2,518 11,013 +142 19,874 338,635 9,015 1,116 33 1,942,470 5,868
Spain 140,510 +3,835 13,798 +457 43,208 83,504 7,069 3,005 295 355,000 7,593
Italy 132,547 16,523 22,837 93,187 3,898 2,192 273 721,732 11,937
Germany 104,199 +824 1,842 +32 36,081 66,276 4,895 1,244 22 918,460 10,962
France 98,010 8,911 17,250 71,849 7,072 1,502 137 224,254 3,436
China 81,740 +32 3,331 77,167 1,242 211 57 2
Iran 62,589 +2,089 3,872 +133 27,039 31,678 3,987 745 46 211,136 2,514
UK 51,608 5,373 135 46,100 1,559 760 79 252,958 3,726
Turkey 30,217 649 1,326 28,242 1,415 358 8 202,845 2,405
Switzerland 22,242 +585 811 +46 8,056 13,375 391 2,570 94 167,429 19,346
Belgium 22,194 +1,380 2,035 +403 4,157 16,002 1,260 1,915 176 80,512 6,947
Netherlands 19,580 +777 2,101 +234 250 17,229 1,424 1,143 123 86,589 5,053
“one major anomoly seems to be Germany with 104K cases (which seem correct for the country of their size) but only having 1842 fatalities.”
Yes, I agree. While the death rate is important, my primary concern at the moment is the new cases. Our death rate has been steadily climbing as a percent of total cases. As of yesterday, I am showing it stood at 2.9%. It may go higher. The key is to stop the growth of the virus. In the end, that will take care of the deaths. I hope these last two days may be a positive “sign.” Not much more to hope for :-).
Also France seems to be leveling off ... but UK is still on the uptrend.
“”””Ordinary cold viruses become less active in the spring and summer; will this killer cold virus behave like its benign cousins?””””
IIRC the H1N1 virus in 2009 began in April and lasted through September in the USA.
Anyway, below is my graph which shows the daily change in cases. The fact that daily fluctuations are seen in total and active cases, but not in deaths or recovered cases, is what leads me to believe that there are daily fluctuations in testing.
Notice that on the right side of the graph, that the diagnosis of new cases appears to be decreasing. It would be great if real, but I don't want to get hopes up. Hence, the caveat about weekend testing.
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