Posted on 07/06/2020 4:58:10 AM PDT by Kaslin
If there was ever an argument against one-size-fits-all government policy, it’s the COVID crisis.
I’m going to inundate readers with data, but stick with me because the data is what tells us that there is no reason to keep the country shut down.
Dying from COVID-19 is highly dependent on where one lives, and co-morbidity factors such as advanced age, poor respiratory health, and obesity. There are 2.78 million cases, or about 0.9 percent of the country’s entire population.
The CDC reports 112,226 deaths from COVID-19 (4 percent mortality), of which 80 percent were age 65 or older. That translates to a 0.8 percent mortality rate for everyone else.
Let’s refine the data further using downloadable CDC data. Unsurprisingly, we find that the more densely populated areas carry the highest risk. NYC itself has 19,106 deaths, or 17 percent of the nation’s total. Of those, 74 percent were 65 and older.
California has 248,000 cases, or 0.6 percent of the state’s population. The 5,172 deaths lead to a 2.1 percent mortality rate. Those over age 65 represent 13 percent of the cases…but 77 percent of the deaths.
In Los Angeles County, there are 107,667 cases (1 percent of the population), 3,454 deaths (3.2 percent mortality rate), and those over 65 account for 70-percent plus of the deaths. If you glance at the county map, you see much of the county has extremely low case rates. The highest is 2.5 percent in the City of Vernon.
But here’s the thing that politicians and the media don’t want you to know about. From the LA Country Department of Public Health: “Ninety-three percent of people who died had underlying health conditions”
If you spot-check any county in the United States, you find statistics that are substantially similar to all of the data just presented.
In April, FTI Consulting found that 77 percent of deaths in NYC had serious underlying health conditions (diabetes, lung disease, immunodeficiency, heart disease, asthma, etc). Only two percent had no underlying conditions. The rest were unknown.
Even our friends at the New York Times admit to higher deaths from underlying conditions in their most recent data publication. Not only that, those with underlying conditions may have NOT gone to get care because they were afraid of contracting COVID in a health care facility. Many were unable to get care because the CDC tells health care facilities to keep people away.
Meanwhile, the death rate among all age populations has declined dramatically, even as the media and politicians continue to frighten everyone by saying the aggregate number of cases is increasing. A chart listing the odds of a person dying from various causes of death shows that a person is far more likely to die from things like falls and chronic lower respiratory disease than COVID-19.
What can we learn from this data? First, some caveats. There are many other factors involved in whether one contracts the virus or dies from it, but age and location are high-level factors that are a starting point for properly balanced policy.
That starting point is that COVID is now a matter of local concern. Not federal. Not state. Not county. We are now at the city level where decisions can be made, and even in places like Los Angeles, those decisions should be hyper-local.
Lift all stay-at-home orders with encouragement that people engage in appropriate cautionary measures regardless of risk profile. Businesses can choose whether to open, at what capacity, and with safety protocols that they see fit to use.
You know what will happen? Most businesses will re-open, call in workers, and get people working and earning money again. Most businesses will still ask patrons to wear masks, social distance and limit capacity at certain times, especially places like grocery stories and retailers.
If government actually wants to be useful, it should identify the highest risk pools of people. Encourage low-risk pools to offer help. Run errands. Assist with deliveries. Help out! Americans have proven time and again that, in times of natural disasters, we step up for each other.
For the nervous Nellies who don’t have underlying conditions, screaming about how we’re all going to die if we don’t keep everything shut down, you can all stay home. You are staying home anyway. Stop trying to punish the rest of us who aren’t afraid.
Meanwhile, they should at least admit that “Stay Home Save Lives” will result in countless people who will suffer from alcoholism, drug addiction, spousal and child abuse, suicide and aggravated medical conditions from being unable to see a doctor.
Every life is sacred. So is liberty. The pursuit of happiness follows. When government policy interferes to an unreasonable extent, all three are threatened. It’s time for government overreach to stop, and for those living in fear to wake up.
There are 2.78 million cases, or about 0.9 percent of the country’s entire population.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Shouldn’t the word ‘known’ be after 2.78 million?
If we had an instant snapshot of everyone with it or who already had it, we’d see much less a threat. And maybe if we are anywhere near herd immunity.
How about like the, “we hate Trump, let’s get rid of him and ruin the country and take it over fraudulent dumpster fire” that it is?
No, saying ok assumes premise that it is really an issue. If everyone never wore a mask again, there would be no difference. In fact, numbers would improve.
Why in Hades hasn’t Congress passed liability protection from WuFlu suits for American biz?
Businesses, just ask me to sign/post a damn waiver. Works for me.
And I have one word for bricks and mortar biz small to large demanding I wear a mask: Amazon.
Nuff said.
You know what is says on the back of the boxes of masks we buy at the grocery store: Not for use in healthcare settings.
SNORT.
Vik Khanna, a retired health policy consultant who earned his graduate degree in health policy and management at Johns Hopkins also wrote an article about “Coronavirus’s public health Fear Factor”.....
As an ex....Saying...” A finding that hospitalizations and deaths are clearly concentrated in one or two particular groups would ‘refute’ the wisdom of the shutdown strategy.”
Further stating....”Americans should defy unreasonable activity restrictions and show the world what civilized civil disobedience and peaceful redress of grievances really looks like...... Turn on the lights. Open your businesses. Help your children’s teams start back up again. Gather in your churches, homes, and neighborhoods. And yes go back to work. Live your life. Dare your local dictators to push back on your legitimate claim to a place in the public square....
.....When the data are in, we will likely conclude that the virtual shutdown was never evidence-based.”
I’m one who believes in coordinated wide area serious (grocery stores closed+) Chinese style shutdowns of 14 days followed by reasonable slowdown measures such as mask wearing.
Having a third of the economy on a cronic condition death bed is no way to go.
Amen.
The need for hospitalization is a key factor.
If Mr. Diabetes got really sick and would recover after a 30-day hospital stay, you wouldn’t want him to cost you more in taxes.
We may have got Covid in North America because roughly 7 people brought it from China to California and perhaps 50 brought it from Italy.
The crew bringing Americans from Wuhan and American tourists returning from Europe weren’t quarantined.
A small number of people can spread a respiratory disease fast.
Bump
113K deaths. How many unborn babies are killed each year? 7 or 8 times that number and yet the left wants us to believe they actually care about life.
Medical mistakes kill more people annually than WuFlu will.
I am so damned tired of “journalists” confusing mortality rates with case fatality rates )CFR). They consistently report CFR as mortality rate. Even those who try to factually explain what the data tells us wind up significantly overstating mortality.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.