A Senate Takeover Is Very Much A Possibility For Democrats. Just Follow The Money

NPR ^ | 7/13/2020 | Domenico Montanaro

[Drango]

To take control of the U.S. Senate, Democrats need to net three seats in November if former Vice President Joe Biden wins, and four if President Trump is reelected.

That once looked like a near impossibility, but it's becoming a real possibility.

Republicans hold a 53-to-47 majority in the Senate, with the Democrats' side including two independents who caucus with them.

Five Republican incumbents are looking increasingly vulnerable, with their races labeled as "toss ups" by the Cook Political Report. Meanwhile one Democrat, Doug Jones of Alabama, is seen as being in real jeopardy.

Those five Republicans are Arizona's Martha McSally, Colorado's Cory Gardner, Maine's Susan Collins, Montana's Steve Daines and North Carolina's Thom Tillis.

Fundraising reports from the Federal Election Commission provide glimpses of Democratic strength. In Arizona, for instance, challenger Mark Kelly has so far outraised the Republican incumbent McSally by some $12 million.

ANALYSIS 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Biden Has An Edge Over Trump, With 5 Months To Go In all, there are 11 states that Cook labels as toss ups or that "lean" toward one party or another. Republicans hold fundraising advantages in six of those states, but in several of those races, the Democrat's latest FEC report is a bit outdated, likely underselling the candidate's money raised. For example, challenger Cal Cunningham, in North Carolina, announced last week that he raised about $7 million in the second quarter.

So keep that in mind as you look at the how the money race stands in each of those 11 contests:

Democratic Targets: Arizona (McSally incumbent, toss up)

- Kelly, D: $31.3 million raised, $19.7 million cash on hand

- McSally, R : $19 million raised, $10.3 million cash on hand

Colorado (Gardner incumbent, toss up)

- Gardner, R: $15.7 million raised, $9.3 million cash on hand

- John Hickenlooper, D: $12.6 million raised, $5.9 million cash on hand

Maine (Collins incumbent, toss up)

- Sara Gideon, D: $23 million raised, $5.5 million cash on hand

- Collins, R: $16.3 million raised, $5 million cash on hand

Note: Gideon is the favorite to win Maine's Democratic primary on Tuesday.

Montana (Daines incumbent, toss up)

- Daines, R: $9.4 million raised, $5.8 million cash on hand

- Steve Bullock, D: $5.9 million raised, $4.1 million cash on hand

Note: Bullock's fundraising report only goes through May 13, while Daines' goes through June 17.

North Carolina (Tillis incumbent, toss up)

- Tillis, R: $11.7 million raised, $6.5 million cash on hand

- Cunningham, D: $7.7 million raised, $3 million cash on hand

Note: Cunningham's fundraising report only goes through March 31, while Tillis' goes through June 9.

Georgia (Perdue incumbent, lean R)

- David Perdue, R: $13.2 million raised, $9.4 million cash on hand

- Jon Ossoff, D: $4.1 million raised, $1 million cash on hand

Note: Ossoff's fundraising report only goes through May 20, while Perdue's goes through June 20.

Georgia (Loeffler incumbent, lean R)

- Kelly Loeffler, R: $11.7 million raised, $6.1 million cash on hand

- Doug Collins, R: $2.5 million raised, $2.2 million cash on hand

- Raphael Warnock, D: $1.5 million raised, $1.2 million cash on hand

Note: The election in November is a special election and would go to a runoff if no one gets more than 50%. These three candidates led a recent poll of the race.

Iowa (Ernst incumbent, lean R)

- Joni Ernst, R: $12.3 million raised, $7 million cash on hand

- Theresa Greenfield, D: $7.1 million raised, $4.7 million cash on hand

Note: Greenfield's fundraising report only goes through May 13, while Ernst's goes through June 30.

Kansas (Open seat with Sen. Pat Roberts retiring, lean R)

- Barbara Bollier, D: $3.5 million raised, $2.4 million cash on hand

- Bob Hamilton, R: $2.2 million raised, $2.2 million cash on hand

- Roger Marshall, R: $2.1 million raised, $1.9 million cash on hand

- Kris Kobach, R: $595,000 raised, $317,000 cash on hand

Note: The state primaries are Aug. 4.

Republican Targets: Alabama (Jones incumbent, lean R)

- Doug Jones, D: $11.8 million raised, $8.3 million cash on hand

- Tommy Tuberville, R: $4 million raised, $448,000 cash on hand

- Jeff Sessions, R: $2.2 million raised, $500,000 cash on hand

Note: The Republican runoff election is Tuesday. Jones' fundraising report only goes through March 31.

Michigan (Peters incumbent, lean D)

- Gary Peters, D: $15.8 million raised, $8.8 million cash on hand

- John James, R: $13.1 million raised, $8.6 million cash on hand

[Drango]

Don't be complacent! If just 10% of NEW donors would contribute, this wouldn't be an issue. Do what you can.

[cuban leaf]

There are plenty of recent examples that prove it takes more than money to win an election. Once the money gets over a certain level, it really doesn’t matter much.

[dware]

Gardner deserves to lose. He’s a filthy traitor.

[Lurkinanloomin]

If those Republican Senators had embraced the agenda of the President and Republican voters, they wouldn’t be in trouble.

[ScottinVA]

I would not assume the AL Senate seat is a sure R win. Look at the funding Jones is getting, vs. Sessions and Tuberville. He more than doubles up the two of them combined.

[ScottinVA]

Gardner deserves to lose.

Don't worry...Hickenlooper will win that one going away. CO is the new CA.

[Mr. Jeeves]

McSally seems to be trying to win without admitting to white suburban female voters that she is actually a Republican.

She is running non-stop attack ads on Mark Kelly for his business dealings with China - all well and good, but Kelly has a far bigger weak point: he is a gun grabber. That doesn't play well even with (suburban) Democrats in Arizona, but because McSally and her handlers are so terrified of St. Gabby Giffords they won't pursue this obvious deficiency in Kelly's platform.

Because McSally is campaigning as Democrat Lite, I see this seat as a likely loss at this point.

[McGavin999]

Kelly is a gun grabber. This needs to be hammered closer to the election so it doesn’t lose its power

[kenmcg]

As lousy are these pubbies are in danger, remember the Senate is about the Supreme Court. So we shouldn’t be rooting for any democRAT.

[qaz123]

Maybe so, but he’s better than Hickenlopper.

[BBB333]

I really like my MT Senator Steve Daines, but in the entire history of Montana only ONE Republican Senator has ever been reelected as a Senator (Conrad Burns and after several reelections he was replaced by Tester).

I despise our current Governor (Bullock) whom is running against Daines.

I’m keeping my fingers crossed on this one.

[qaz123]

This still boggles my mind. Money.

There isn’t enough money on the planet to convince me to vote for a Democrat. I don’t care how many commercials they buy. The two sides are so far apart and that line in the sand can’t get anymore defined.

Of course, I do not include in any of this, the RINO/GOPe/Establishment/UNIPARTY/Country Club Republican’s, as they are 50% bad, IMHO, whereas Dem’s are 100% bad.

But, at this point, if a commercial or radio ad is something that sways your opinion on who to vote for then you probably shouldn’t be voting anyway.

[Colo9250]

We will probably lose the senate because of traitors and rino’s like Gardner, Graham and McConnell. Hopefully we can win it back next election. Personally, I think we are better off without Gardner, Graham and McConnell in the long run.

[Amendment10]

Patriots, please don’t overlook that when you give money to a Democrat it immediately loses half of its face value. /semi-sarc

[cuban leaf]

There were races in 2018 where the winner was outspent by the loser by double or more. I look at money in an election like I look at power trying to reach the speed of light. Over a certain speed, the amount of power required to significantly increase your speed is simply insurmountable.

Once you have enough money to get the message out solidly and make your case,the rest really doesn’t do much good. And no small number of people will see your ads and that will convince them to NOT vote for you. That’s just the way it is.

[nwrep]

We are facing the prospect of a complete wipeout of the R party in November. WH, House and Senate.

[LS]

All the money in the world won’t save McSally, who is a terrible candidate. All the money in the world won’t save Jones in AL who won by a fluke.

The Senate will remain in GOP hands, probably 52-48 with Gardner and McSally losing and gaining a seat back with Jones.

[Dilbert San Diego]

Jon Ossoff is back in Georgia, running for Senate? He’s like a Beto O’Rourke type, as a I recall when he ran for the House in Georgia.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

They are just setting the stage for their “the election was stolen” campaign of lies.

[redshawk]

NPR is a loony left organization. All taxpayer dollars to it must be stopped. A real twisted group.