Troops loyal to Libya's internationally recognised government on the outskirts of Misrata, Libya [Ayman Sahely/Reuters]
Posted on 07/23/2020 9:04:42 AM PDT by Roman_War_Criminal
Turkey and Russia agreed on Wednesday to press for a ceasefire in war-ravaged Libya, but Ankara said the leader of the eastern forces was illegitimate and must withdraw from key positions for a credible truce to take hold.
Moscow and Ankara are among the main power brokers in Libya's conflict while supporting opposing sides. Russia backs the eastern-based forces of renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar, while Turkey has helped the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) repel Haftar's attempt to storm the capital.
"We've just reached an agreement with Russia to work on a credible and sustainable ceasefire in Libya," President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's top security adviser, Ibrahim Kalin, told Reuters news agency.
Kalin said any deal must be based on a return to what he said were the Libyan front lines in 2015, requiring Haftar's forces to pull back from the strategic city of Sirte - gateway to Libya's eastern oilfields - and al-Jufra, an airbase near the centre of the country.
"For the ceasefire to be sustainable, Jufra and Sirte should be evacuated by Haftar's forces," Kalin said.
(Excerpt) Read more at aljazeera.com ...
Troops loyal to Libya's internationally recognised government on the outskirts of Misrata, Libya [Ayman Sahely/Reuters]
What would or could Turkey do if Egypt disobeys? Most likely, finance fifth-columnists to cause problems for Cairo. But Egypt could easily return the favor.
The logistics in Libya definitely favor the Egyptians.
Erdogan may bite off more than he can eschew...................
“Suleiman and The Ottomans” 2020 Worldwide Reunion Tour!
One A-10...
“Turkey and Russia agreed on Wednesday”
..after Egpyt authorized intervention Monday evening.
Looks like Egypt’s action got Turkey scrambling.
Sounds like they want to negotiate a (temporary) division of the country, rather than fight over the whole of it.
Haftar and his LNA (the Egyptian side) were closing in on Tripoli for a final victory, when Turkey swept in with thousands of jihadi mercenaries from Syria, and advanced weaponry.
In typical Middle East/moslem fashion, any negotiated cease fire will be used to build up their forces for, when they judge it more advantageous to break out from it.
Even the negotiations themselves may simply be a delaying tactic while they reinforce.
Turkey’s opening negotiating position seeks to deny their enemies of their most valuable assets - the Russian air base at Jufra and the GNA control of Sirte (and thererby the flow of oil revenue), without having to actually fight for them.
As in Syria, Turkey seeks to make cost-efficient use of low cost mercenaries, from third countries. Maybe some UAE or Saudi funding could raise a few brigades of similar troops, like the African Mercs that Muammar Gaddafi used to employ.
“Jaw Jaw” or “War War”?
Let’s see how things break, now that the stakes have been raised by Egypt’s Authorization for the Use of Military Force.
My guess is that the Turkish-backed forces will halt their advance, until they assess what is coming from Egypt. If they don’t see mobilization, they will start testing their advance again.
Meanwhile, the Turks are likely scrambling to put together/deploy a big reinforcement, and provide them diplomatic cover/delay with these talks.
“In typical Middle East/moslem fashion, any negotiated cease fire will be used to build up their forces for, when they judge it more advantageous to break out from it.”
You mean any other rational force wouldn’t do the same??
“Let’s see how things break, now that the stakes have been raised by Egypt’s Authorization for the Use of Military Force.”
Let’s hope both side are social distancing.
I bet a lot of countries are on the phone with Turkey, Russia and Egypt over this situation - USA, France, Germany, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia...
“You mean any other rational force wouldn’t do the same?”
Just that the degree of trust in any commitment is lower there.
“Making Peace” is viewed as a fundamentally temporary condition.
There is a cultural difference, and a doctrinal difference embedded in islamic history and current practice.
Why do we even care? They’re both muzzie countries. Let them beat each other to extinction and congratulate the winner.
Turkey is also causing problems with Greece
“Just that the degree of trust in any commitment is lower there.
“Making Peace” is viewed as a fundamentally temporary condition.”
Isn’t that the rational and realistic way to view the world given human nature.
Aren’t we all for trust but verify (actually that’s upside down - should be,” verify and then trust”)?
And don’t we arm ourselves to the teeth to gain the peace on our terms and for then to keep it?
Are we really that different? How much do you trust our leftist comrades in this country?
The level of trust in any population is directly proportional to the level of acceptance of its dominant culture, associated values and interests.
Obama/Clinton/Biden did this.
Somebodies going to get an order for a whole bunch of Toyota Hilux’s
Turkey must remember that Egypt may have support from Saudi Arabia and Russia, maybe even Israel. Egypt has the population and an army. Turkey could have a renewed war with the Kurds and Syrians. This could blow up fast. What will Iran do? What of the USA or France? Egypt could use the oil reserves of Libya to help their economy. Conquest has always been a way to solve problems.
Yep, price of oil has been too low for too long.
Time to rattle some sabers, torch a few wells...
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