Trump administration goes for '360 degree' diplomacy to help end Libya war

Al-Monitor ^ | August 7, 2020 | editors

[SunkenCiv]

The Trump administration waded even deeper into the Libya conflict this week, backing UN calls for a cease-fire amid the many factions, and signaling again that the country's oil fields are off limits to those seeking to profit on the war.

The US initiative is well timed, with signs of an escalation of fighting between the Libyan Government of National Accord, which is recognized by the UN and backed by Turkey, and the insurgent forces of former general Khalifa Hifter, who has the support of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and France.

Libya's also become the world's most dangerous proxy war, ground zero in an increasingly militarized regional contest between Cairo and Ankara that is spreading to the eastern Mediterranean and to Turkey's borders.

And then there's Russia, which, while backing Hifter, has also sought to position itself as broker of an eventual settlement, with its eyes apparently on a cut of Libyan's oil revenues...

After Russian mercenaries, known as the Wagner Group, moved into a Libyan oil field, the US Treasury sanctioned Wagner financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin for sanctions evasion while citing Wagner's involvement in Libya.

Washington has also threatened sanctions on Hifter, a US citizen, if he looks to profit from Libya's oil fields. Hifter's base of support is in is in eastern Libya, where some of the key oil fields are located.

On Aug. 6, the Trump administration sanctioned a network of fuel and drug smugglers involved in Libya. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the United States "will take concrete actions in response to those who undermine Libya's peace, security or stability."

[SunkenCiv]

Russian mercenary groups have enabled renegade military commander Khalifa Hafter, who is based in eastern Libya, to blockade the country's oil exports, starving the country of much-needed money.

Moscow's backing of Haftar, a former CIA asset, has increased tensions with the United States. Russian private military contractors are active in 16 African nations. How is the country paying for its overseas wars?

Also on Counting the Cost: Currency crisis, debt default, hyperinflation and poverty - Lebanon was in economic and political paralysis long before the devastating explosion in Beirut. With corruption rife, is it time for a Marshall Fund?

Plus, we discuss weaponising data and disinformation to manipulate elections. Hostile nations are using artificial intelligence to get past social media defences.

Why Russian mercenaries seized control of key oilfield in Libya | Counting the Cost

[SunkenCiv]

Currently, oil production in Libya is around 100,000 barrels per day (bpd). This figure is dramatically down from 1.2 million bpd at the start of the year, just before paramilitary formations affiliated with the Libyan National Army (LNA) of eastern Libyan strongman General Khalifa Haftar occupied Libya's oil export terminals and oilfields.

With Libya's conflict escalating, the country's crude oil exports are expected to be just 1.2 million barrels in August, a 40-percent plunge from July, Bloomberg reported earlier this week, citing an initial loading program it has seen.

With no immediate return of Libyan oil on the market, the expected global production surplus later this year could be just 58.6 million barrels or about one-third of Rystad Energy's previous forecast.

Even if Libya resumes most of its production soon, in the most optimistic scenario by Rystad, Libya's 2020 exit production rate will be between 700,000 bpd and 800,000 bpd. The country, however, will need another up to four months to ramp the production up to 1 million bpd.

Libya's Oil Blockade Will Help Clear The Global Supply Glut By Charles Kennedy

[SunkenCiv]

In line with a military rule that says, "Be ready for war if you want peace and stability," Turkey continued to strengthen its position in the airbases under the GNA's control. It installed anti-aircraft Hawk missiles in the Al-Watiya base close to the Tunisian border. Defense Minister Hulusi Akar visited Tripoli last month and held extensive talks with the Libyan authorities.

The main stakeholders in Libya believed that more bloodshed would be unavoidable if the GNA pursued its goal of seizing Sirte. Among them, Russia was working hard to secure a cease-fire.

Turkey and the GNA believed that, if a cease-fire were to be agreed, Haftar would use the opportunity to change the military balance in his favor by bringing in new mercenaries. Despite Turkey's initial reluctance, Russia eventually persuaded Ankara to make a joint statement announcing a cease-fire in Libya on July 22. It may not be considered a full-fledged international agreement, but a relative calm prevailed in the field after this joint statement.

The idea of recapturing Sirte is not being raised by the Turkish authorities as frequently as it was in the past.

Turkey walking a tightrope over Libya by Yasar Yakis

[SunkenCiv]

Russian mercenary groups have enabled renegade military commander Khalifa Hafter, who is based in eastern Libya, to blockade the country's oil exports, starving the country of much-needed money.

Moscow's backing of Haftar, a former CIA asset, has increased tensions with the United States. Russian private military contractors are active in 16 African nations. How is the country paying for its overseas wars?

Also on Counting the Cost: Currency crisis, debt default, hyperinflation and poverty - Lebanon was in economic and political paralysis long before the devastating explosion in Beirut. With corruption rife, is it time for a Marshall Fund?

Plus, we discuss weaponising data and disinformation to manipulate elections. Hostile nations are using artificial intelligence to get past social media defences.

Why Russian mercenaries seized control of key oilfield in Libya | Counting the Cost

(Guess I'm just fussy, bugged me that the software screwed up my formatting)

[SunkenCiv]

• Gadhafi's cousin: NATO, UN Security Council responsible for Libya's crisis
• 'Greece, Egypt violate Turkey's, Libya's rights'
• ISIL will bounce back if Libya civil war doesn't end, study warns
• Libyan crisis is an opportunity to stir the Arab Maghreb Union from its slumber
• Mossad and Bibi’s top security advisor squabbling over relations with Arab states
• Turkey, Libya, Malta 'agree on joint cooperation'

[spokeshave]

360 degree diplomacy....I think they mean that Trump is a systems thinker and problem solver.

[SunkenCiv]

Turkey's top diplomat on Thursday said Greece and Egypt violated the rights and continental shelves of Turkey and Libya by signing a maritime deal on exclusive economic zones (EEZ) in the Eastern Mediterranean.

In an exclusive interview with Anadolu Agency, Mevlut Cavusoglu stressed that the text and map of the agreement had yet to be revealed, adding: "However, it's obvious by the given coordinates that the deal not only violates the rights and continental shelf of Turkey but also of Libya."

"Hence, an agreement that violates our continental shelf, which we have reported to the UN, is null and void and the reason why we've come to this point is that countries like Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration, are trying to sign agreements with Egypt and Israel while ignoring Turkey," Cavusoglu added.

"We'll continue to show them and the world that this agreement is null and void on the table and in the field."

Egypt announced earlier on Thursday that it signed a bilateral agreement with Greece on the delimitation of maritime jurisdictions between the two countries in the Eastern Mediterranean.

'Greece, Egypt violate Turkey's, Libya's rights' Anadolu Agency | August 06 2020

---

Turkey, Malta and Libya on Aug. 6 agreed to promote joint cooperation, facilitate the return of Maltese and Turkish companies to Libya and resume flights between the three countries, said the Turkish Foreign Ministry.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, his Maltese counterpart Evarist Bartolo and Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj held a meeting in Libya's capital Tripoli to discuss the latest situation in the North African country and joint cooperation between the three nations.

During the meeting, the sides underlined the need to strengthen Libya's southern borders and combat human trafficking and smuggling, noting that illegal migration posed a threat not only to the EU, but to Libya as well.

Both Turkey and Malta expressed their readiness to support Libya's internationally recognized government against illegal migration.

They emphasized the importance of the EU's participation in "tackling the root causes of illegal migration by helping the development of source countries."

Turkey, Libya, Malta 'agree on joint cooperation' Anadolu Agency | August 07 2020

[SunkenCiv]

You're right, and he is, but it was quoting US national security adviser Robert O'Brien.

[Lurkinanloomin]

Libya would not be a mess if McCain, Graham and Rubio had not backed Obama and Hillary’s illegal war to overthrown the government.

[Undecided 2012]

and a few less million illegals into Europe. Thanks Barry

[Flavious_Maximus]

“...threatened sanctions on Hifter, a US citizen”

Amazing how we just hand out citizenship to freaking everybody.

2 millions illegals pour into the USA every stinking year for 10 years now. Why are we giving away ANY citizenship to these 3rd world shit holders?

[SunkenCiv]

He was in exile due to Ghaddafy, I believe, and got recruited to return to Libya (obviously at risk).

[DoodleDawg]

Why are we involving ourselves in Libya?

[SJackson]

Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

..................

[SunkenCiv]

Diplomacy should be no problem for anyone. Get help.

[DoodleDawg]

Diplomacy should be no problem for anyone.

Staying out of things that don't concern us, and in which we can accomplish absolutely nothing, shouldn't be a problem either. Why is it for you?

[SunkenCiv]

Because I don't have ESP, and I live in the world, which is made up of people, instead of your bubble.

[DoodleDawg]

Because I don't have ESP, and I live in the world, which is made up of people, instead of your bubble.

A nonsensical answer if ever there was one. I'm assuming that even you can't hazard a guess on what we could possible accomplish?

[Bratch]

Moscow's backing of Haftar, a former CIA asset...

We broke it, we bought it.

[DoodleDawg]

We broke it, we bought it.

Just kick the broken pieces under the counter and back out quietly, maybe nobody will notice.