Posted on 09/15/2020 6:33:35 PM PDT by BeauBo
i bet the arab countries are scared to death of Persia getting nuclear weapons ... it’d be very interesting if a very large peace deal develops between israel and the arab countries and eventually it turns into a mutual defense pact against Persia ...
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I don’t know if you noticed but Greece and Cypress both signed a mutual defense pact with Israel as well. It looks like P. Trump and PM Netanyahu have begun to build a wall against Erdogan’s Turkey as well as Iran.
I agree with you, that this signing was the fruit of a major effort, started right at the beginning of the Trump Administration.
At the time, the Saudis hosted a huge event, with representatives of sixty Muslim countries. President Trump addressed them, and told them all that it was time to withdraw funding and ideological support from jihadis and terrorists.
I expect it is likely that a Saudi signing will be done in a similar grand Saudi style, with a similar impact across the Sunni Muslim world.
This will thwart the Military Industrial complex’s fight to keep the war machine going. BTW, First week in October is when the Nobel Prizes are announced. The Peace Prize will go to some Murderous thug who promised not to wipe out his “subjects..”
That is an interesting thought. I am wondering what will be the actual Saudi public response.
You have provided manner
I’ll buy into your thought
“Regime change in Iran by the end of President Trump’s second term.”
I expect that as well.
I would not be (totally) surprised by regime change in China by then.
President Trump is outflanking the Palestinians. As more and more countries sign on, they will find themselves in a position where they can either sign a peace agreement with Israel, or stand alone and get nothing.
Saudi Arabia is intensively policed for political opposition. Only communist China has a higher percentage of its population dedicated to spying on the rest of the population. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is an absolute dictatorship.
Saudis are used to keeping their finger in the wind, for any shift in public policy, and falling over themselves in a rush to swear what a great idea it is.
The main Islamist hardline preachers have already been arrested, and are facing potential death sentences - even highly popular figures with millions of (former) social media followers.
So officially, public opinion will fall right into line. My sense is that the huge (disproportionally) younger parts of the population are really yearning for modernization, social liberalization, and International openness. They would be amenable to welcoming this deal. A hard core of die hard Wahabbis will probably present a serious assassination risk, for a long time to come.
If the Palestinians fail to make a deal, they will possibly end up on the equivalent of Indian Reservations, drawn up by Israel, without the right to vote in Israel - but still subject to Israeli Federal legal jurisdiction.
Jordan
The ultra hard core are simply dying out.
There now in control of family business and the Saudi industries, men who are the sons and nephews and perhaps grand sons of founders who are in fact American educated. I have met several who came here and received college educations. They shun the sinful large state universities and attend smaller universities.
They are Saudi and they are Muslim but they are not fanatics.
Some time back, I met a young Saudi electrical engineer who was real and knew his stuff. In the past, Saudi’s had degrees but were not really very good and didn’t like to work. He held his own amidst the Indian and Americans. He worked for a very large American company with extensive facilities in their Saudi office
Yes, that’s their domestic plants - but Israeli industry has developed literal standalone desal plants that you set up by the ocean and can power with solar arrays. They aren’t as good, but if you have no infrastructure and no capability to maintain a natural gas plant, a gigantic big box structure you set up by the ocean that makes fresh water is a huge change.
Stopping annexation keeps the Land of Israel divided contest to the command of God that not be.
Palestinians in 2024 will be facing a tough negotiator, but he will be a “lame duck,” so they may have an ace to play.
*** Isn’t that IN RESPONSE TO rockets coming out of there? ***
According to the Israeli Government.
Here’s a thoughtful Messianic Israeli perspective:
https://davidstent.org/strange-bedfellows-in-the-middle-east/
“Jordan”
If a deal is structured right, Jordan could absorb a good bit of the Palestinians. Jordanian concerns would need to be addressed.
They have a lot of Palestinians already (1/3 of Jordan’s population), and they struggle to maintain domestic political stability with what they already have. The King’s father had to send the Army in to drive out the disruptive PLO, in the “Black September” event, killing 20,000. The PLO then went on to de-stabilize beautiful Lebanon.
If it is a comprehensive, and broad regional deal, backed up by significant investment, the Palestinian population could be significantly dispersed among neighboring countries.
Egypt might be incentivized to take the Gaza Strip - densely populated with nearly two million. That would likely require a lot of start up capital.
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab States could offer preferential employment opportunities and possibly a pathway to citizenship. 100,000 lucky young, Arabic speaking, Palestinian families could help to jump start the new Saudi City of Neom, just a 2 1/2 hour drive from Eilat.
Palestinians are a relatively urbane and well educated pool for Arab employers to hire from. Other Gulf Arab States could offer alluring scholarship, employment or even selective citizenship opportunities. Israeli companies could help establishing those opportunities throughout the region, and recruiting Palestinian employees.
Of course, as you point out, Jordan is a natural home, which formerly administered the area, and many of the people’s ancestors.
But then, what about the land? The Jordan River makes a clear (and more defensible) boundary. Also, Jordan naturally has deep security and economic concerns, about trying to absorb just the over two million West Bank Palestinians. Building enough new housing in Jordan, building out infrastructure, and providing satisfying economic opportunities would take a decade of serious investment.
If (as I suspect) there is a long term economic development concept to manage the Palestinian population with dignity and opportunity as part of this Grand Deal, then the next phase (2021 to 2024) would be starting to make such major investments (10’s or 100’s of billions of dollars), and to institute new policies (Dubai-like free trade zones, easier employment/emigration opportunities for Palestinians in the region).
There is definitely cultural change taking place in Saudi Arabia, and they have a very significant demographic bulge of youth/young adults pushing it.
As you point out, there is widespread Western education among the elites, and even poor Saudi youth have grown up with a window on the world through the Internet.
The most baffling thing about the peace process always appears to be (mostly western, fairly progressive) Jordan...
Until you recall what the Jordanian Royal Family needed to do to the PLO to maintain control within their own nation.
At least the Jordanian Husseins have been able to govern well, unlike the Assads to the north or their (extremely) distant cousins to the east...
Jordan’s Royal Family are Hashemites - descendants of the Prophet, who have a variety of traditional cultural structures that support their legitimacy. They are well ingrained to the tribal organizations, that still exert considerable influence.
The Assad’s are members of a relatively small (Alawite) minority, whose basis for ruling rests on their Arab racial collectivist ideology (Ba’athism, akin to Nazism). Assad has to rely more on oppression than the Jordanian King.
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Seven to nine more would be quite an accomplishment. The Arab League has 22 members, four now with relations with Israel, IMO that wouldn't consider it, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, palestine, Somalia, Yemen, probably Libya, that leaves 11. 7-9 of 11 would be significant.
Ah thanks
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