The Biden campaign will surely calculate that the damage of dropping out will be far less than the damage of participating in debates. Unless they rig it with answers provided in advance, no direct talk between candidates, etc so Biden can just read from a prompter the whole time.
A key enabler for that calculation is that the mainstream media can convince everyone that debates don't matter, that they are not historically a thing prior to modern TV era, that Trump is unworthy of debating, etc etc. They will pull out all the stops, and Google / Facebook / Twitter will censor anything that says otherwise. Will that be enough to minimize fallout? I don't know. But Trump can surely make a lot of hay out of it either way.
Lil georgie debated Trump last night and lost
Does any reasonable person believe biden could do better?
Cmon man
Good analysis. My next question is ... if there are no presidential debates, will there be a vice-presidential debate? The spin machine will have to go into over-drive to explain why Pence/Harris can’t take place either. To me, pulling out of the vp debates or holding them without the POTUS debates will be very hard and awkward to justify.
“The Biden campaign will surely calculate that the damage of dropping out will be far less than the damage of participating in debates.”
i think it is equally likely that the biden campaign will calculate that that damage of NOT dropping out will be far less than the damage of actually participating in debates ...
“It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.”
Mark Twain
They know the MSM will convince the electorate
<><> that debates don't matter,
<><> they are not historically a thing prior to modern TV era,
<><> that Trump is unworthy of debating, etc etc.
<><> plus Google / Facebook / Twitter will censor anything that says otherwise.
“The Biden campaign will surely calculate that the damage of dropping out will be far less than the damage of participating in debates.“
Biden’s problem isn’t risking fallout from chickening out - that would hurt him - but he’s got a far worse problem:
Biden is the challenger - he’s the one that needs the debates, not President Trump.
Think of it as a world heavyweight boxing title. As incumbent President, Donald Trump holds the title. He’s the reigning champ. If Biden wants the title, he needs to challenge the champ. He has to fight him in the ring.
A huge part of that challenge takes the form of debates. If Biden won’t get on stage and debate, that will be seen as withdrawing his challenge.
That is how people will view it. It won’t be so much that Biden was a coward - it will simply be that there is no challenge, so President Trump is still President.
A heavyweight challenger could have the best excuse in the world for not fighting - for example, let’s say he was abducted by aliens the day of the fight and there was video to prove it. So nobody could blame him or call him a coward.
But still, the champ would keep his title.
I think it’s the same for Biden. He has to debate or Trump remains President.
One thing they might try is have Kamala Harris challenge President Trump to a debate in Biden’s place. If President Trump refused, that could be spun as him chickening out. If he agreed, he’d lose the advantage of debating a senile old man.
If they try that, President Trump should say “Sure, I’ll be happy to debate her, or anyone the Democrats officially place at the head of the ticket.”
That would be checkmate Trump - because it is too late to get her on the ballot as Presidential candidate.