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Latest Iowa Electronic Market quotes predicting Dems win Senate
Posted on 10/31/2002 7:59:31 AM PST by ElRushbo
Since its beginning in the 1988 U.S. Presidential election, the IEM has established a reputation for forecasting election results with great accuracy, with an average prediction error of 1.37 percent.
The latest quotes are looking ominous for Republicans. The markets are pricing a 23-25% chance that the Republicans win both the House and the Senate versus a 27-28% chance that the Dems will win both!
The most likely outcome seems to be Republicans taking the house and Dems taking the Senate--- the market is .45 bid .49 offer (45-49% chance)
I have been watching the Iowa Electronic Markets for about a week and there has been a major decline in the likelihood Republicans take control of both the House and Senate. Late last week the market was showing about a 40% chance of this occuring. The scary thing is the chances of Dems winning both went from about 10% last week to almost a 30% chance as of 9 AM today.
Look at the price history yourself: http://188.8.131.52/graphs/graph_cong02.cfm
I have also heard that there are various London betting pools or bookmaking operations have been very accurate in various elections. I am curious as to how they see this election playing out. Does anybody have any links to any bookmaking operations or to any other reliable polls that are accuate in guaging the outcome of various elections? I think freepers would be interesting in keeping an eye on these as we get closer and closer to election day.
posted on 10/31/2002 7:59:31 AM PST
Bookies tied to mob tied to Democrats tied to voter fraud.
Not hard to predict the outcome!
they're very wrong on this one.
even if they had the money;
dem's couldn't buy a seat this time...
posted on 10/31/2002 8:04:35 AM PST
Isn't there a flaw in the market's prediction of overall control? Seems to me that it is sort of like betting Black or Red on a roulette wheel. Wouldn't a more accurate market-based prediction come out of an analysis of the individual race futures rather than what can only be a guess as the overall outcome? For example, which party has more candidates with higher futures than their opponents?
posted on 10/31/2002 8:05:51 AM PST
by Mr. Bird
I've been following that price chart for the past few weeks too.
I'm not clear as to what event(s) could have caused the spike in the Dem's odds (other than Wellstone's death). I hate to sound like a conspiracy-nut, but I wouldn't put it past the RATs to rig this "electronic market" by bidding up their favorite scenarios and then getting the media to report on the trend.
IN 5 DAYS, THEY'LL BE VOTING DEMOCRAT
WHAT ARE YOU DOING TODAY TO HELP TAKE BACK THE SENATE?
A resource for conservatives who want a Republican majority in the Senate
posted on 10/31/2002 8:08:53 AM PST
Unlike the presidential election, where a lot of people participate in the market, in the congressional races not much liquidity/participation. This suggests that the prices might not be a real good predictor.
To: TomT in NJ
I wouldn't put it past the RATs to rig this "electronic market" by bidding up their favorite scenarios
I have no doubt that is what they're doing.
The "ante" and limits on this market are microscopic, meaning anyone with a couple of thousand bucks to burn can peg the outcome. A similar mystery spike occured in the 2000 cycle, and this market's predictive power vaporized.
Well, the odds are in our favor for an upset in their predictions this time around. I think they're wrong. I really believe the GOP will have a one seat majority in the Senate. The only concern I have is that Chaffee idiot in RI talking about switching if the pubbies do take the Senate back.
posted on 10/31/2002 8:59:09 AM PST
by no dems
To: The Vast Right Wing
People could also be hedging or taking proffit at this point.
posted on 10/31/2002 9:01:56 AM PST
To: TomT in NJ
I'm not clear as to what event(s) could have caused the spike in the Dem's odds
Consumer confidence has crashed; down to about .7 (1985 =1.0). ..I'm a bit worried myself, check out realpolitics.com; theyre worried too.
ElRushbo (Limbaugh) tossed out an interesting statistic yesterday. W has the highest approval rating of any president going into the midterm elections of any president since they began compiling approval ratings (66%). The next highest is Dwight Eisenhower in 1954 (60%) which is the last time the Republicans gained a majority in both the House and the Senate.
posted on 10/31/2002 10:22:08 AM PST
Holloween spending is down severly and business analysts are saying Christmas spending is going to suffer too. I think that consumers are going south on us; the election cant happen soon enough, as far as Im concerned.
I agree.... sooner the better.
posted on 10/31/2002 11:00:18 AM PST
I'm a bit worried too. But FWIW, October was the best month for the Dow 30 since January of 1987. Hopefully that bounce-back, the decent 3rd quarter GDP and this morning's unemployment rate will allay our fears.
Comment #16 Removed by Moderator
Yep, you are correct. The issue is whether there is an efficient market. Markets that are thinly traded are not typically thought of as being 'efficient' in an informational or financial sense.
To: The Vast Right Wing
Id put my money on the Republicans to take both---seems like they are gaining some momentum-- best risk/reward bet
posted on 11/01/2002 12:14:27 PM PST
Comment #19 Removed by Moderator
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