Posted on 02/23/2018 12:03:15 AM PST by 11th_VA
A just-released poll, conducted February 12-15 by FM3 Research for Flip the 49th! Neighbors in Action has a cautionary tale for Democrats seeking to replace retiring Congressman Darrell Issa in the 49th Congressional District.
The good news is the Republicans brand is so tarnished that a generic Democrat could win over a generic Republican by 7 points or more.
The bad news is that the current line-up of Democratic candidates is likely to split primary voters in such a way that two Republicans will face each other in the general election.
The FM3 poll is unique in that was conducted on behalf of an independent effort supportive of all Democratic candidates rather than a media or party organization. The Flip the 49th campaign is focused on driving voter engagement and will not be endorsing any particular candidate.
(Excerpt) Read more at obrag.org ...
From the poll:
Following the positive messaging, the FM3 Research poll showed [Democrat] Applegate at 19%, trailed at 18% by Republicans Chavez and Diane Harkey at 18%, with Democrat Mike Levin polling at 16%. Republican Kristin Gaspar came in with 9%, followed by Democrats Sara Jacobs 7%, Paul Kerr 3%, and Christina Prejean 1%. Ten percent of respondents replied with undecided/dont know.
Following the negative messaging, the poll showed Republicans Chavez and Harkey with a tie at 18%, followed by Democrats Applegate 17% and Levin 13%. Gaspar and Jacobs both polled at 8%, with Kerr at 2% and Prejean at 1%. Seventeen percent of respondents replied with undecided/dont know.
Given Californias (retarded and unconstitutional) blanket-primary system in which the top-two finishers regardless of party go on to the general election, only two Republicans should be running, lest Republican voters split the vote and allow one or two Democrats to slip into the general. Seems to me that Republican Kristin Gaspar should drop out of the race so that her 8%-9% can be divided between fellow Republicans Rocky Chavez and Diane Harkey (both of whom are polling ariund 18%) so as to increase the odds of an all-Republican general election. The question is, will Kristin Gaspar be willing to take one for the team?
...the current line-up of Democratic candidates is likely to split primary voters in such a way that two Republicans will face each other in the general election.
Sexcellente!
People should email Gaspar.
#ruleoftwo
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