Alibaba Founder Jack Ma Predicts the US – China Trade War Could Last 20 years

As the latest salvos were fired in the growing trade war between the United States and China, concerns continue to mount in the business community about how just how long the conflict might endure. Alibaba group founder and China’s richest man Jack Ma recently spoke to an investor summit in Hangzhou, China regarding his thoughts on the direction the trade war may take.

In his speech, Ma said the trade war was “going to be a mess,” and that regarding its potential duration it could last for “maybe 20 years.”

Ma went on to compare the current trade dispute with the U.S trade actions conducted against Japan in the 1980’s, as Japan looked to be a potential challenger to the United States economic ascendancy.

Ma theorised that the U.S was now setting its sights on China because it has become the world’s second-largest economy stating: “This kind of thing happens,” he said. “It’s very natural.”

Jack Ma (file photo via Flickr)

What makes this trade war different from other trade disputes in the past?

Normally trade war negotiations are extensively defined by the national interests of the two countries involved in the dispute. This motivates the two parties to attempt to act quickly on behalf of industry and employees in their respective countries, to settle the dispute to both sides mutual satisfaction.

In this instance, the trade war is not just between China and the United States, it is a conflict that is also defined by the personalities and the domestic interests of Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S President Donald Trump.

As Jack Ma correctly pointed out, this trade war is not just about unfair trade practices or an imbalance in tariffs,

China will not last that long in a trade war.

Heck, China won’t last 5 years in a trade war.

China is dependent on other nations to have a “somewhat” successful economy, and they’re especially dependent upon the U.S. to keep their economy going.

This trade war won’t last more than a year, and China will have to give in soon.

Regarding trade between the USA and China: China gets access to a massive market that buys most of their stuff. The USA gets cheap crap in large quantities.

I'd say china has WAY more to lose than we do. That's the problem with having a really lopsided trade balance, if it starts to shift one side suffers way more. China plays the long game and I'm sure they will likley say "we're willing to suffer for 4, 8, 10 years if that's how long it takes until another puppet takes change in America." They'll say that. But we'll see if they can make it work.

“In 20 years without the US market China will be back where it was before Nixon. It’s up to them, we can just build anything we need here. It might cost more but it will last longer”

Americans should shun Chinese-made stuff, and accept the fact that their survival as a country is dependent on reining in China, with trade practices being only one facet of the problem.

Time is on our side. The US is the world's greatest and best market. The Chinese are sending us $500 billion in exports and we are sending them $160 billion. Higher tariffs on Chinese goods will hurt their export market causing internal problems. Jobs will be lost and factories closed. Political problems could arise for the Commuinist government.

In the meantime, US domestic industries will start producing the goods heretofore imported from China. More and better paying jobs for American workers will result as American businesses and investment return to this country.

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