Posted on 02/14/2020 6:57:02 AM PST by SeekAndFind
A popular Twitter hashtag is #Trump2020Landslide. Is this wishful thinking or a real possibility? Let’s look at the electoral landscape over the next 9 months.
As an initial caveat, understand the difference between confidence and overconfidence. The former is a realistic expectation going forward of favorable electoral winds based on a thoughtful analysis. The latter is thoughtless and dangerous based on emotion and desire, rather than data and realism.
Republicans learned this lesson during the George HW Bush presidency. Bush enjoyed an 89 percent Gallup job approval in February 1991 after US victory in the Persian Gulf War. A little over a year later the bottom fell out after Bush reneged on his campaign promise, “Read my lips, no new taxes,” nudging the economy into a recession. In July 1992, his approval rating was an anemic 29 percent. Welcome, President Bill Clinton.
Could something similar befall the Trump reelection efforts? Certainly. The economy is strong, but economies are cyclic, and recessions inevitably occur. The media can’t destroy Trump as they didn’t create him. Big media has been shooting spitballs at Superman Trump, everything bouncing off him and smacking the media in the face.
The only way Trump could lose his loyal base of support is through his own actions. If Ruth Bader Ginsburg left the Supreme Court, with or without a pulse, and Trump nominated uber-liberal Lawrence Tribe as her replacement, he would lose his base. If he began tearing down the wall rather than building it or signed on to Medicare-for-all or the Green New Deal, then he would suffer and same fate as George HW Bush, but that’s as likely as Bernie Sanders denouncing communism in favor of capitalism.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Gallup also has a presidential tracking poll which shows Trump at 49 percent approval, the highest number during his 3 years in the White House. Everything the media and the Democrats (sorry for the redundancy) has thrown at Trump has only made him stronger and the Democrats weaker.
Other numbers trend in Trump’s favor. The Dow is pushing 30,000, unemployment is at historic lows, wages are up, family incomes are as well, and the latest jobs report of 225,000 new jobs in January beat expectations, as CNN tearfully admitted.
Gallup has taken those blockbuster economic numbers and translated them into how they affect people’s lives, rather than simply as favorable statistics. A week ago, Gallup reported, “59% in U.S. say they are now better off financially than last year and 74% say they will be better off financially in a year.”
The rising tide is lifting many boats and voters may think twice about sinking the boat of peace and prosperity by voting for a socialist just because Trump tweets and uses coarse language.
Gallup also tossed in this tidbit,
Nine in 10 Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in their personal life, a new high in Gallup's four-decade trend. The latest figure bests the previous high of 88% recorded in 2003.
Good luck to any of the angry Democrats selling dissatisfaction over satisfaction.
A couple of corrections: Ras was not the most accurate. Ras had Trump winning the pop vote by 1.5%.
Richard Baris at People’s Pundit Daily had Cankles winning the pop vote and Trump winning the EC with PA, MI, FL, and NC-—his own polling however had Trump winning WI and he admitted he didn’t believe his own polling. So he called WI the night before for Cankles.
Gallup, whose # for Trump is exceptional, does not use “likely” voters. But Gallup now has the GOP with a whopping THREE point advantage in the generic “identify.”
I have never seen this in my life. The most I’ve seen, briefly, was a GOP 1 point advantage. Rs win elections when down as much as three. So this is very significant.
BTW, in 1972 with Nixon’s massive landslide, the Rs gained only a few seats in the House (still held a minority) and lost two senate seats!
President Trump has a very good chance of getting re-elected currently. Hopefully, he will/can pull enough votes for other Republicans to retake the House and maintain Senate majority.
With the rate of Republicans dropping out/retiring, this is a very good chance to replace them with young conservative substitutes. [Why can’t Romney retire?]
I wonder if the LA tracking poll will be as accurate as it was in 2016.
Will they go for accuracy again or will they try to fudge in order to help the dems?
Regardless what comes out of the polls, the MSM and/or so-called conservative media, we MUST ignore all of it, stay focused and act as if we’re 50 points behind at all times. The worst enemy we have, outside of the POS communists themselves, is complacency on our side. Everybody needs to get out and vote for the POTUS...EVERYBODY!! And also vote for those that are down ticket that support him and against those that don’t. The Republic is fighting for its very life. IF the communist ever gain power, they will do America, and us, in forever.
It’s about getting out the vote...and winning the house back. We keep hearing little about the house possibilities. Almost as if the Dems are trying to keep it quiet.
... and thanks for the detailed info.
That +3 in the generic identify has got to have Pelosi terrified.
9 months out. Black swans, stock bears, and plagues. Yet the President is in a strong position for reelection. However do not expect a Nixon 1972 or Reagan 1984 landslide in the electoral college or popular vote. Demographics are a bitch.
George Bush...Reagans biggest mistake
You cannot talk about the 92 campaign without mentioning Ross Perot.
Bush lost because of Perot taking votes away from him, not because of Clinton.
Bush lost because of “Read My Lips”
No kidding. Dems are also panicked that they are showing about 30 seats in the House in trouble. I’m not ready to buy that yet, but I don’t think it will be nearly as hard to win back 20 as it was just 6 months ago.
Democrats, regardless of who they nominate will be lucky if they get 10 states this fall...
Short of a complete economic collapse between now and then, or some other black swan event of that magnitude.
Whether it’s wishful thinking or not it is a tactic that is counterproductive.
But it is only countterproductive if you actually support Trump.
Great point: I totally forgot about them. But, like Ras, they had Trump ahead.
Baris has explained to me how he digs far deeper into the characteristics of the “likely voter” than anyone else, and that explains why his poll is so much better.
Thanks. I will definitely keep an eye and ear out for Baris and PPD.
Despite all his hard-earned riches, this poor guy needs our help Americans.
READY - AIM - VOTE
Thanks, Chief
Regardless what comes out of the polls, the MSM and/or so-called conservative media, we MUST ignore all of it, stay focused and act as if we’re 50 points behind at all times.
***********
When your life depends on it, you run scared. The Democrats don’t do circular firing squads nearly as well as we fo.
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