Posted on 10/18/2020 6:09:44 AM PDT by bort
Here are the takeaways from this morning's early voting report from the NC State Board of Elections:
1) Republicans cut about 1.5 points from the Democrats lead in VBM/early in-person voting.
2) Votes cast: 665K/355K/408K (D/R/U registered voters)
3) Democrats have cast 310,000 more votes than Rs, but..
4) In 2016, Democrats cast--get this--exactly 310,000 more votes than Republicans in the entire early voting period, i.e., the exact same spread as today. In 2016, at the close of EV, Dems led Rs 1.3 million to 1 million VBM/EV cast.
5) Republicans have won 3 straight days of early voting so far, and are the odds-on favorite to win most (if not all) of the remaining in-person EV days, as Dem-heavy mail-in ballots are slowing down to a trickle.
6) Caveat: Black voters have turned out in the first 3 days of in-person EV in large numbers (especially Day One). The good news is that Rs still out-performed Ds on all three days, which means that white Democrats cannibalized their in-person votes by voting via mail. Black voters may be "front-loaded" in in-person EV through voter drives, but we will need 3 or 4 more days of data to confirm this.
7) Conclusion: Calm down about NC. We are in good shape. This state ALWAYS looks bad for Rs at the beginning. (continued)
I am trying to understand your post. If Dems have cast more votes, how can the R's win ?
Well about 30 to 40% have been freed from the plantation.
Actually the solution would be to have more polling places.
And my question is how many Democrats are voting for Trump!
*************
And my question is how do you determine that?
Democrats have cast 310,000 more votes than Rs.
Votes cast: 665K/355K/408K (D/R/U registered voters)
Republicans have won three straight days of early voting so far.
I am trying to understand your post. If Dems have cast more votes, how can the R’s win ?
______________________________________________________
Trump won NC by 5 points in 2016. If the Dems have a similar or, more likely, smaller EV lead come election day, Republicans will win. NC Republicans will far outnumber Democrats on election day. This is the case in all states. Rs win election day voters.
VBM = Vote by mail ballots.
Early voting take place in two forms:
1) VBM-—Vote by mail.
2) In-person
In NC, the in-person part of early voting just started 3 days ago. The VBM ballots have been coming in for three weeks.
I loathe Tillis. But I will vote for him since the other option is unthinkable. My whole family feels the same. I am so proud of my grandson who registered and voted for the first time yesterday [now to work on his twin brother to go vote]. And as a side note, I WAS a registered republican my whole life. Until the last election. After the way I saw republicans treat then candidate Trump, I changed my party affiliation to Independent. I may be an “I” now, but I will NEVER pull the lever for a democrat. Let the pollsters guess where I stand.
To compare the 310,000 early voting numbers in comparison to 2016... How much time remains in this year’s early voting.?
______________________________________________________
If Republicans just stay even with the remaining raw EV numbers, we will be in great shape. The good news is that mail ballots are slowing down (Dems had a huge advantage), which means that the R advantage in in-person early voting will be enhanced.
He is saying that for the last THREE DAYS the Rs have won, or had more votes than Ds.
I know one dem who EV’ed = straight GOP.
I have heard of some black dem voters in Durham who intend to vote for Trump. Post election results will confirm the significance of these anecdotes and whether they were a good indicator of an above normal historical number of dems crossing over to Trump &/or GOP. Shades of 1972?
Lack of polling places was not the reason for instituting early voting. It was to give the demonkkkraps more time to round up their voters and get them to the polls.
Now that the demonkkkraps have discovered absentee voting, then maybe early voting should be shortened. Like all bad government solutions, expect any elimination of early voting to go down the road of “voter id” laws ... they will be challenged for decades, even after the S Ct has found them constitutional.
This would not necessarily be a bad thing for Trump. He has more support among the black community this time around and those who are for him seem to be for him very enthusiastically. So it stands to reason these folk would line up on Day 1 to cast their votes.
Glad to see my fellow NC-ers are practical voters. We all love sausage, but most people don’t want to see how it is made.
The worst GOP is still better than the best demonkkkrap. If it gives one any comfort, Tillis is not Romney, or that Flake guy, or McCain. Tillis has supported the big votes when it counted.
Miss Jesse Helms - he, like Trump, did not back down, and didn’t care what the demonkkkraps thought about him. I knew some lifelong demonkkkraps that never voted for Jesse, but told me that they respected him for his good values, and when they called his office for help - he helped them, without regard to party. They couldn’t vote for him because of politics in Durham was like a religion - once in the church, one never left it else you would lose all your “friends”.
Also you may have seen 77.7% of all early voters voted in 2016. More cannibalization.
When I was selling large scale systems to major corporations, I never was out going with any political view.
I wanted to make money, and I didn't care if the CEO was a demonRAT.
It’s always telling when a state gets a visit from the top two.....Biden isn’t going there, so I’m not worried. Maybe that’s too simple...but
Agree that election day should be a holiday. These extended voting periods just allow for ballot harvesting.
Please vote for Tillis. Take shower before and afterwards.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.