Well, the biased media make sure every Respublican is the underdog from the getgo.
Excellent article, thanks for posting it.
Trafalgar group emphasizes short surveys. I looked at a CBS/YOUGOV poll for Arizona and the results were 85 pages(!) covering about 35-40 some questions that had to take close to a half an hour to complete. I don’t know a conservative that will sit for a half an hour being questioned by a polling group.
Lowry is a mental midget. If Lowry knew anything about statistics, then he would debunk (see, I can use that word too) polling averages. Polling averages are like averaging apples and oranges to get bananas. The methods used, the sample populations, the questions, and even the underlying mathematics in individual polls are different. Rule #1 in statistics: A poll tells you about those who responded to the poll - that is the sample population. Even with that, there is always error in measurement. It is called the margin of error. By the way, there are multiple methods of calculating margin of error. Pollsters never tell us with method, although you can some determine the method with simple algebra given enough variables in the poll results. Additionally, pollsters never give correlation statistics - that is the correlation between the sample population and the population in its entirety, e.g., register voters, all voters, etc. Writing of which, how do you average register voters with all voters or all adults in the US?
Again, Lowry is a mental midget. Don't believe a single word he writes.
Paywall: what’s the point posting it?
“ Cahaly notes that this phenomenon showed up as long ago as the 1980s, in the so-called Bradley effect, when the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley...”
The Bradley effect has been tested time and time again and since its discovery in California, it remains a constant in all presidential election polls since 1984 but is never corrected in the final results, and that is why Trafalgar Group’s polls should be the only polls deemed accurate.
But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.”>>>> Wolf wins again. And the local state rep doesn’t even say he is a republican. What is with these chicken sh*ts
Even Trafalgar pretends that Dems don’t cheat.
Fingers crossed and prayers up that this is true.
The election will be decided by voter fraud. Even if only a few percent of the overall vote, it could be enough to tip the election.
The other side has no enthusiasm for their candidate. They have been sending out waffling and confusing signals to their voters. They wanted them to vote by mail... now they want them to show up at polling places. When people do not know what they are expected to do, they tend to do nothing. There are all sorts of indications that the enthusiasm for President Trump this time around is greater than it was in 2016. And President Trump is doing 2 to 3 well attended rallies a day. Despite my proclivity toward grinding my teeth at night and worrying... I sense a landslide coming because of the the difference in enthusiasm levels. This will cause our side to make gains in both houses of congress as well.
Rich seems to be miffed about the Trafalgar Group.
The upstart Trafalgar Group doesn’t see 2020 the same way everyone else doesWho is "everyone else" exactly?
National Review... Rich Lowry
Never Trumpers to the core.
Please view this video and you will understand that the polls are definitely wrong—early voting has turned them into useless antiques—President Trump has _got_ this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf6yr_McIFs&feature=youtu.be
The Democratic insiders already know their cause is lost.
Dude just predicted “Mid 270s” for Trump.
Obviously you take that but some people here have there on mind set on a lot better.