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Keyword: kylekondik

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  • The Drive For 25: An Updated Seat-By-Seat Analysis Of The House

    10/18/2018 6:34:59 AM PDT · by 11th_VA · 32 replies
    Center For Politics ^ | Oct -8, 2018 | Kyle Kondik
    We went with the name “Drive for 25” as an homage to a 2012 House Democratic slogan and to reflect the fact that while Democrats need to net 23 seats, they probably are going to lose at least a couple of seats they currently hold to Republicans. (snip)This year, Republicans appear to be guaranteed at least one pickup: PA-14, an open seat in southwestern Pennsylvania that is a more Republican-leaning version of the old PA-18, the seat now-Rep. Conor Lamb (D) won in a special election in March.(snip) Republicans also are targeting two open seats in Minnesota, MN-1 (covering southern...
  • Aftermath 2016: How the government will run under Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

    07/07/2016 9:37:19 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 19 replies
    US News & World Report ^ | July 6, 2016 | Kyle Kondik
    There is only one thing certain about the outcome of the 2016 election – it will produce more gridlock. On January 20, 2017 Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will assume the office and the nation will have either a divided government or one-party rule – neither of which are likely to create a bipartisan surge. One outcome will look quite familiar: a divided government led by a Democrat in the White House. Another possibility: One-party rule by a Republican Party in the midst of serious fractures under the leadership of a very nominal Republican. The least likely scenario also involves...
  • The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters

    03/31/2016 5:42:07 AM PDT · by Brilliant · 40 replies
    Sabato's Crystal Ball ^ | March 31st, 2016 | Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley
    The new map, as you will see, does not show a close and competitive general election. The Republicans now find themselves in a deep hole. Yes, more than seven long months remain until the election, and all kinds of unexpected twists and turns can occur. Sure, we don’t know the shape of the economy or terrorism, or the precise job approval rating of President Obama in the autumn, or the gaffes and scandals that may yet unfold on our way to the ballot box. But goshdarnit, there’s finally a pause in the non-stop primary calendar, and we’re going to take...
  • The Truth About the 2016 Race

    09/07/2015 2:22:33 PM PDT · by jimbo123 · 60 replies
    Politico ^ | 9/7/15 | Larry J. Sabato , Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/stor
    The rise of Donald Trump might represent some massive sea change in American politics—but it’s far more likely he will fade long before the primary season does. Thanks to Trump, August was a blockbuster month for the political press, but most of what is happening now won’t decide who is sworn in on Jan. 20, 2017 -snip- #7. Trump is still unlikely to be the nominee. We’re not disputing that Donald Trump is the clear polling frontrunner on the GOP side, or that he has struck a chord with millions of voters unimpressed with politicians that “talk rather than do.”...