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Deutsche Bank’s top minds put U.S. recession chance near 100%—and say avoiding a hard landing would be ‘historically unprecedented’ Output is expected to contract as early as October and continue shrinking during the all-important election year, making it the worst performing economy among G7 nations in 2024. It appears as if U.S. economists may have popped the Champagne corks on a soft landing too early—at least according to Deutsche Bank. The German multinational bank’s top research team believes Washington has sparked a boom-bust cycle that now is nearing its end stage. In its house view, the recession slated to arrive...

The stats are in, revealing that Biden has flooded the nation with over 6.4 million illegal immigrants who have entered the U.S., bringing the total to now 13.7 million that the government must support. They are bankrupting cities, raising crime like never before since countries are emptying their prisons and shipping them to Bidenville. The number of recorded immigrants flowing through the border is about 172,000 per month, and that does not count those whom Biden has been secretly flying in to hide the actual NUMBER. The true crisis is that the Democrats are allowing these people in to change...

The electronics retailer Best Buy is set to close 10 to 15 stores this year and into early next year, according to an earnings call last week where the CEO blamed declining sales. On the earnings call, Best Buy CEO Corie Barry said the company needs “to strike a balance between its workforce and consumer interest,” according to The Austin American-Statesman. The chain closed 24 of its more than 1,000 stores last year. Earlier this month, two Best Buy locations closed – one in Colorado and one in Minnesota.

It is 2024, and the State of the Union is broken. It’s been that way for a while, frankly, but the Biden-Harris regime has sped up the process. Every year, a man stands before Congress and delivers a State of the Union Address, as the Constitution requires; sometimes it feels like that’s the only constitutional requirement they obey in their entire term. They cheer the good things, as they see them, and they attack the things they consider bad. Then they often either disregard the most serious threats entirely, or they blame them on their political opponents. And all too...

That’s Bidenomics for you! The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continued its decline in January, dropping 0.4% MoM (notably worse than the -0.1% MoM expectations), and December’s 0.1% declin e was revised down to a 0.2% decline. The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was stock prices (again) at +0.10 The biggest negative contributor was average workweek at -0.18 This is the 22nd straight MoM decline in the LEI (and 23rd month of 25) – equaling the longest streak of declines since ‘Lehman’ (22 straight months of declines from June 2007 to April 2008) “The U.S. LEI fell...

They were able to delay the U.S. economy’s day of reckoning, but they were not able to put it off indefinitely. During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system and our politicians borrowed and spent trillions of dollars that we did not have. All of that money caused quite a bit of inflation, but it also created a “sugar rush” for the economy. In other words, economic conditions were substantially better than they would have been otherwise. Unfortunately, there will be a great price to be paid for such short-term thinking. From the federal...

This headline from Zero Hedge makes me so glad I have eaten heart-healthy Quaker Oats and Cheerios every morning for the last 20 years! Study Finds 80% Of Americans Exposed To Fertility-Lowering Chemicals In Cheerios, Quaker Oats. The chemical (chlormequat chloride) was detected in “92 percent of oat-based foods purchased in May 2023, including Quaker Oats and Cheerios.” But that was nothing compared to this Zero Hedge headline: EU “Suicide Pact” Threatens To Flood Continent With 75 Million More Migrants. Makes me wonder if Biden/Mayorkas are under orders from the UN/WEF/Soros to let immigrants pour across our southern border (including...

Six US Marine security guards stationed at US embassies overseas have died in the last two years... The latest political poll in Israel leading it the National Unity Party...War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz at 40 seats...Netanyahu's Likud Party which only gets 18... ..the Munich Security Conference underway China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi telling US Secretary of State... French journalist Vanessa Dougnac kicked out of India...linked to her reporting critical of the policies... Joe Biden making what many see as an election year trip to East Palestine, Ohio a year after a train derailment... Missile attack alerts early Saturday morning in...

The soft-landing dream is over; instead, the US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi says. "There's this very powerful and seductive narrative around a soft landing, and we're just not seeing it in the data," Citi's chief US economist, Andrew Hollenhorst, said in a CNBC interview. "The question is where are these forward-looking indicators showing us that we're going to go," Hollenhorst said. One place the economy is showing a weakness is the labor market. January had a blowout jobs report, adding 353,000 jobs to the economy. But Hollenhorst noted that if you scratch...

NEW YORK (AP) — As some of the world’s biggest economies stumble into recession, the United States keeps chugging along. Both Japan and the United Kingdom said Thursday their economies likely weakened during the final three months of 2023. For each, it would be the second straight quarter that’s happened, which fits one lay definition for a recession. Yet in the United States, the economy motored ahead in last year’s fourth quarter for a sixth straight quarter of growth. It’s blown past many predictions coming into last year that a recession seemed inevitable because of high interest rates meant to...

Japan has lost its spot as the world’s third-largest economy to Germany, as the Asian giant unexpectedly slipped into recession. Once the second-largest economy in the world, Japan reported two consecutive quarters of contraction on Thursday — falling 0.4% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter after a revised 3.3% contraction in the third quarter. Fourth-quarter GDP sharply missed forecasts for 1.4% growth in a Reuters poll of economists. A recession is broadly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP slipped 0.1%, compared with a 0.3% rise expected in the Reuters poll. For the...

The global economic landscape is facing turbulent times, with recessionary waves hitting major economies. Japan recently slipped into recession for the second quarter in a row, catching many by surprise. Meanwhile, the UK has officially entered a technical recession, marking a challenging period for economies worldwide. The signs are evident not just in economic data but also in the surge of layoffs that have become a common theme in recent months. Industry giants such as Twitch, Hasbro, and Spotify are among those announcing significant workforce reductions. Over 100,000 individuals have been affected by these layoffs in the first few months...

The last time the phrase “soft landing” was this popular on the internet was on the eve of the largest financial crisis the world has ever seen. The idea behind an economic soft landing is that the central bank (for the United States, the Federal Reserve) is able to bring inflation from an overheated economy under control by increasing interest rates without producing a recession or a collapse of the financial markets. This is what markets desperately long for in early 2024 and are trying to manifest by simply repeating it as a mantra and believing in it hard enough....

How can anyone out there possibly believe that the U.S. economy is doing well? As you will see below, the number of homeless Americans has risen to the highest level ever recorded, and large companies all over the country are laying off workers in droves. As I have discussed previously, the number of Americans that were laid off in 2023 jumped 98 percent compared to the year before, and now during the first month of 2024 it feels like we are being hit by a tsunami of layoffs. It literally seems like someone has turned a fire hose on, but...

Over the past two years, the Biden administration has repeatedly insisted that job growth is amazing, and that the administration has "created" millions of jobs. In reality, of course, much of the job growth that did exist was the predictable job growth that came with the end of forced business closures and lockdowns. Job growth was also fueled by rising aggregate demand fueled by runaway growth in government spending. After all, during 2020 and 2021, the regime's easy money policies meant that the central bank and private banks created approximately seven trillion dollars during that period. Since early 2021, however,...

In 61 years on this earth, I have never needed an oscillating multitool until now. But I’m working on a project that requires one (for cutting away a couple inches of baseboard on either side of a door, to accommodate door replacement and new casing). So, I headed to our local Walmart. I will probably only use it for this project and never need it again, so I didn’t need to spend much. I found four options: a $20 multitool, a $35 model, a $45 model, and a $70 model. Different brands, different power levels, probably different quality levels, but...

The press reports that inflation in the United States isn’t doing too bad; it just inched up a bit in December, 2023 – to about 3.4 percent, year over year. That means, prices only rose by about 3.4 percent from December, 2022 through December 2023. Considering the fact that we were looking at double-digit inflation in the first two years of the Biden-Harris regime, inflation at only 3.4 percent looks good, at first glance. Finally – the regime tells us – prices are getting back to normal again. Maybe it’ll even return to a proper 2 percent eventually; won’t that...

In the most recent BLS employment report, the percentage of full-time jobs relative to the population dropped sharply. The robust headline number of 216,000 led most media commentators to suggest a “soft landing” is at hand. However, the decline in full-time employment suggests recession risks are higher than thought.To understand why such is the case, we must first review why the current economic environment remains stronger than anticipated. In mid-2023, we discussed how the massive monetary infusions supported economic activity, and we were experiencing a “manufacturing” recession but not an economic one.“In 2011, the world faced a manufacturing shutdown as...

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory, 2024 economy, looming bank regulations and artificial intelligence. https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6344549070112 (RECESSION??)

The 19.6% of office space that isn’t leased is the highest since at least 1979 ... America’s offices are emptier than at any point in at least four decades, reflecting years of overbuilding and shifting work habits that were accelerated by the pandemic. A staggering 19.6% of office space in major U.S. cities wasn’t leased as of the fourth quarter, according to Moody’s Analytics, up from 18.8% a year earlier. That is slightly above the previous records of 19.3% set in 1986 and 1991 and the highest number since at least 1979, which is as far back as Moody’s data...