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President Donald Trump is in a dead heat with Democrat nominee Joe Biden, according to the latest John Zogby Strategies poll. Biden currently leads President Donald Trump 49%-47%, which is within the poll's margin of errir, and 4% of likely voters unsure. The previous Zogby poll released Aug. 29 showed Biden ahead by 6 points, while the poll released July 8 showed Biden leading by 7 points. Read Newsmax: Zogby: Trump in Dead Heat With Biden After Hospitalization Urgent: Do you approve of Pres. Trump’s job performance? Vote Here Now!

You’ve heard of the “margin of error” in polling. Just about every article on a new poll dutifully notes that the margin of error due to sampling is plus or minus three or four percentage points. But in truth, the “margin of sampling error” – basically, the chance that polling different people would have produced a different result – doesn't even come close to capturing the potential for error in surveys. Polling results rely as much on the judgments of pollsters as on the science of survey methodology. Two good pollsters, both looking at the same underlying data, could come...

GOP could still keep House majority 04:28 (CNN)House forecast: Democrats will win 226 seats (and the House majority) while Republicans will win just 209 seats. A Democratic win of 203 seats and 262 seats is within the margin of error. Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats (and maintain control of the Senate) next Congress while Democrats will hold just 48. Anything between Republicans holding 48 seats and 56 seats is within the margin of error. The final weekend of the long 2018 campaign is coming to a close. Sometimes the final weekend brings clarity. This weekend brings no such...

... I run an exit polling survey project in Boyle County, Kentucky as part of a regular community-based learning component of our political science courses at Centre College. Our students have surveyed over 1,000 randomly-selected voters on their way out of the voting booths in every fall election since 2011. To examine these competing theories, I compared the results of the exit polls with the actual results in Boyle County in each of these recent elections. Central Kentucky is an especially appropriate place to test for such an effect given that the economic and demographic characteristics are favorable to a...

University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato joins MSNBC's 'MTP Daily' with host Chuck Todd to discuss the Republicans struggling in states Trump won in 2016. Sabato said Trump is in trouble in the Midwest, a part of the country where he did well in 2016, and it "seems to be flipping" in the midterm year. He said the states he carried, it appears, to elect Democratic Senators. "Even if the Republicans hold the Senate given the very pro-Republican math that exists, President Trump is in trouble in some of these states," Sabato said. "He's fallen considerably as...