Posted on 09/24/2006 2:25:58 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Sherrod Brown 47%; Mike DeWine 42%
I thought DeWine was moving up in the polls. How do you see the race from your perspective?
Bob Taft is dragging down the entire state ticket. He should have resigned a long time ago.
I notice that those will very little education vote Democrat.
From my perspective, DeWine fell behind during the summer and is slowly regaining lost ground, but Brown is still the slight favorite.
If Ohio swings heavily to the 'Rats this year, the press will call it a rejection of George W. Bush, but it'll actually be a rebuke of Bob Taft.
I don't buy this poll. The paper questioned registered voters only, it's a mail-in questionnaire and Dewine is "losing" the Catholic vote (he's a practicing Catholic). Makes no sense. I'd wait and see what the University of Cincinnati Poll says.
Not believing the Dogpatch mail poll.
That's not to say that DeWine can't lose. I just don't buy mail polls.
"From my perspective, DeWine fell behind during the summer and is slowly regaining lost ground, but Brown is still the slight favorite."
I agree.
I'll hold my nose and vote for DeWine, the alternative is a bigtime Hillary socialist. I hope DeWine squeaks thru,even though he's a RINO.
ping
In the summer, some of us were trying to get rid of the Rino, now we are trying to stop the Dems.
Frankly, I certainly don't like Brown even a little bit but on the other hand, DeWhine is no prize. How do we ever vote in a sane government when the choices come down to the lesser of 2 evils, if one even exists. Even more unfortunately, this scenario is being duplicated all over the country. It's so rare to find a really top notch candidate for anything. Even dog catcher.
I don't think DeWine is regaining any lost ground at all. He is either in stasis, or slightly slipping. The key though is to look at the crosstabs. If more Pubbies are undecided than Dems, or even if a lot of independents are undecided (although that is less of a "good" sign), than DeWine is still very much in the hunt. If not, he is an odds on loser. The August Survey USA poll did now show much in the way of undecideds, although about 5% from both parties for other, whomever that might be. That means Dewine needs to pull from other, or from Brown himself. He has an uphill battle. I think he has only about a 1-3 chance of winning, at most.
The real problem is finding a candidate that most people will agree is "top-notch". Your idea of top-notch might be my idea of the lesser of two evils.
Has Brown been outed as a LIEberal/Socialist/Marxist bootlicker? There is still time to do that, you know.
The good people of Ohio deserve better than Senator DeWine, but Sherrod Brown is most certainly not suited to be a US Senator!
Between crooks like Taft and RINOs like DeWine, is it any wonder a lot of people are fed up with the GOP?
Survey USA pushes undecideds harder than any other state poll, even Rasmussen.
Part of it has to do with the way they ask their polling questions, "If the election for such and such race was held today and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Then list candidates..."
When you ask the question this way, it forces people to give an affirmative answer in some fashion more than if you were to say, ask the same question and remove the lines "...and you were standing in the voting booth right now...".
This is precisely one of the reasons why SurveyUSA's poll results at certain times in the election can seem a little bit loopy looking back from the actual contest (witness 2004), but when it gets to right before the election, they are very good (as voters get closer to the voting booth, I would say).
The best poll for indicating where the leaners are is still Mason-Dixon, but that's not necessarily news.
Your assumption is correct, though. If the undecideds are Republicans, DeWine probably still has a decent shot. Otherwise, probably not. In this poll, 10% of the Republicans are undecided whereas 6% of the Democrats are undecided.
The last five polls of this race, done in the last week, indicate a Brown lead of +5, +1, +4, +10 and +6. Altogether, I would make a call that Brown is probably up somewhere just outside of the MOE, probably between 4%-7%.
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