Posted on 11/25/2001 12:11:13 PM PST by Arleigh
Edited on 04/14/2004 10:04:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
The PIMCO bond whiz sees a decade ahead with stock-market gains of about 5 percent.
Count the blessings you enjoyed in the stock market during the 1990s. The days of double-digit percentage gains are over and gone.
During the next decade, he says, stock investors can expect returns of 5 percent. And everyone is going to have to save more and spend less.
(Excerpt) Read more at ocregister.com ...
Real Estate Bubble is the last mania maintaining Boomers in denial of the ugly fact that they don't have enough money to retire upon. When that pops, expect Congressional hearings to determine how Wall Street insiders were able to steal trillions from suckers, er, small investors. And expect huge Gubmint handouts to the poor SUV-driving, restaurant-dining Boomers in the decades ahead. >>Sigh!<<
I read one estimate that if people cut spending enough to properly save for retirement, unemployment would be at 7.8%.And I guess you think this is a Bad thing?
My port is up quite nicely this year, thank you. I reckon there will always be money to be made in the market. I work hard to figure out where that will be. Sometimes I'm wrong. But I'm right often enough to pay the bills. Gloom and doom my ass!
I doubt anybody can really predict the market 10 years out. Did anybody in 1980 predict the market returns from 1980-1990? Did anybody in 1990 predict the market returns from 1990-2000? Nobody really knows what the next 10 years has in store for us.
You do realize you are part of a tiny minority, don't you? Most "investors" today simply throw their money at rumors, tips and mutual funds that had a good last quarter. Most "investors" can't read a balance sheet or even tell you the per-share earnings of anything in their portfolio.
Run fast, very fast, in the opposite direction of anyone who claims to have an inkling of what stocks and bonds will do past one month. Anything can happen, and usually does. This economy is like a religion: no one knows for sure and all the scripture that exists can make the future any clearer.
Unless, of course, your "retirement plan" counts on 11% annual returns for the next 25 years! The problem is that most Boomers are spending 105% of their disposable income on luxury items and counting on stocks and real estate gains to do their saving for them. Ain't gonna happen. And when they finally figure this out, then you'll hear the whining.
You have it EXACTLY backwards!
Nobody can predict what stocks will do over a time period as short as a month. Over the long haul, however, you can predict what stocks will do pretty safely - grow about fast as earnings.
Stock prices outstripped economy during the 1990s. They are roughly 10 years ahead of the economy. Therefore, we can either expect a steep drop right away, followed by resumed 3-5% growth - or sideways motion for a decade.
Not pessimism. Realism.
Don't you realize that you are being LIED to by all the Big-Money elites? Do you really believe every Wall Street shill who has identified at least a dozen "bottoms" since April 2000? Do you really believe the economy will recover in the first half, er, second half of 2001, er, the first half of 2002?
Doesn't it worry you when the Chairman of the Federal Reserve thinks it's a GOOD thing that Americans are busy taking equity out of their houses (equity that really isn't there, BTW) to buy needless luxury items? When the economy is so fragile the PRESIDENT has to make TV commercials BEGGING Americans to spend money on needless vacations?
BigMack
We all know what came after the Roaring 20's - the Great Depression! :-)
As an antidote to the Big Money brainwashing, try reading Shiller's "Irrational Exuberance." Or, better yet, try studying a little Economics 101 and a little financial history on your own, instead of reading what the people who make their money selling stocks tell you to read..
I'd add a teensy bit of gold (coins and stocks), but otherwise I agree with you.
I agree with you 110%. The tool Clinton used was Fannie Mae/Freddi Mac and other Government Sponsored Enterprises to pump cash into the consumer economy. When THEY start going down the drain, there'll be hell to pay. Expect a government bailout that will make S&L bailout look like pocket change.
The reason you don't hear this more often is that the Demopublican and Republicrat elites BOTH benefit from today's over-heated economy.
I can also predict that inventions and technologies will cause this to occur.
Just as my gratuitous assertion can be scoffed at, so can the writers assertion be decried as unwarranted pessimism.
There was a time not long ago when 7% unemplyment was considered fully employed......
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